it will be certainly interesting to view the market response to July figures when published next week, it would be hard to tell if any increases have been factored in to price at this point in anticipation.
upto the middle of July, the block times were around 11 mins with a hash rate below 100 generally, the second part of July block times have been below 10 mins with a hash rate probably averaging about 110.
I personally am expecting mining figures north of 250 with a revenue similar to the highs of March and April, would also expect news flow on Texas to increase as they have broken ground now.
I certainly expect Q3 and Q4 to be far more better performing than Q2.
sentiment would appear to be moving in a more positive direction at the moment, lets hope it maintains.
As always, a very sensible and level headed post Hexam.
It’s unfortunate that in this environment there will always be rampers and de-rampers competing for the free money available from the inexperienced FOMO brigade.
If you don’t understand what you are buying into then either go and research it or just walk away, otherwise you are just gambling your money away and the house always wins.
The most frustrating aspect for the LTH’s on here (who have a whole grasp on the fundamental circumstances of ARB) is having to listen to the constantly changing narrative of the troll / de-ramp groups whether they are traders or paid.
You know who is a genuinely invested poster because they are consistent and constant in their approach to communicating on this board, certain others only turn up when price direction fits their agenda!!!
For any newbies looking to gain insight in this space I would suggest a quick check on posting history to asses if an individual is credible or not but as always DYOR.
the important thing for ARB at this moment is that July will no doubt be our best performance and could be in the region of 250BTC, the block time average at current difficulty is just over 10.6 mins. the difficulty is consistent over a two week period and is due to reduce again on Sunday, at current levels there is approximately 850BTC available per day.
the network hash rate constantly changes and has been fluctuating generally between 80 and 120 in recent weeks with an average around the 100Eh mark, this means we have 1.1% of the available, so 8.5BTC per day or 255 for the month.
this is a significant leap from previous months averaging about 165.
in previous months we have declared revenue based on average price during mining, but as we HODL all of it the price at that time is irrelevant, the future price of BTC will be relevant to the value of the HODL.
so i see this as a 55% increase in mining returns for no additional expenditure.
Indeed they are, but all the NA miners forecast orders through to end of next year totalled less than 20Eh and they are still putting the infrastructure in place,
If Texas was available right now for the full 200mw than that would only be about 60,000 rigs.
I don’t think most appreciate how much machinery has actually gone offline
For a little perspective, the network is down approx 80Eh, that’s about 750,000 rigs which will consume 2.5 Tw of electricity.
You don’t just fill the back of your transit, run across a border and plug them back in.
Hash rate will no doubt start to rise again over coming months but there is a lot of alternative infrastructure needed to get back to where it was.
To answer your question, it’s hard to exactly determine an accurate block release time as the network hash rate is constantly fluctuating which then directly changes each block time so I interpolated and took some general averages, more to provide the theory behind it rather than 100% accurate figures, which is why I tried to keep it to simple averages, I also believe there was a bitmain software update which occurred in June which may have resulted in some operational downtime.
If the general hash rate remains around current levels and difficulty continues to drop then we should have a prosperous month of mining in July.
I agree with what you say, and for me the little information I get from this board is not worth the effort of sifting through the wreckage of everything else posted.
So going to take a break from it for a few month then maybe have a look to see if it’s improved by then.
Thanks for the chat we have had over recent months and good luck with your investment, you are one of the few remaining I respect on this board.
Let’s hope LSE step up to the mark with moderation as this board definitely needs it.
GL and ATB
I have somewhat removed myself from this BB as a direct result of the constant bickering that goes on which out weights the genuinely informative posts by at leat 10 to 1, prior to January this year this board was an excellent place as a source of information and then the troll invasion started and has since descended into nothing more than chaos I’m sorry to say. There are very few of the highly respected and informed posters remaining which I suspect is as a result of the above and I consider to be a great shame as everyone is missing out on this.
I am bullish on both BTC and ARB but try to keep my posting informative and unbiased, I am not adverse to contrary viewpoints to my own and welcome substantiated debate as that adds to the knowledge base.
What I can’t stand is the blatant and totally uninformed posting that has increased exponentially over recent months from posters who are clearly not invested and either have a paid agenda to create disruption or for some very bizarre personal reasons, they have just ruined this board.
This is the the primary reason that Delacey formed the discord, so that genuine investors could exchange and debate ARB without all the FUD, and I have to say it works brilliantly and I for one salute Delacey for its creation, he was the original defender of the troll invasion on this board, he is a genuine investor and manages the discord group very well for all other genuine investors in comparison the cess pit this BB has majority turned into.
its just an estimate based on the known aspects at the moment, but would expect the network hash to roam either side of 100 for the near term and the difficulty is expected to drop again in mid July to 13. so everything points towards a good month of mining.
i don't put to much emphasis on the current price of BTC, i am more interested in the overall HODL increase as a result of the drop off, which could gain us around an extra 700BTC by the end of the year for no extra work (if all things remain fairly constant with the hash rate)
Hexam / K3VMC
the first two weeks of June the network hash was averaging about 150Eh with a difficulty of 21 which released blocktimes of about 10 mins, so say 900 BTC available each day for which we had about 0.8% of the network meaning we mined approx 100BTC over the 15 days.
the second two weeks of June the network hash after the drop off averaged around the 100Eh mark but with only a slightly reduced difficulty to 20 and the block release times increased to around 20mins meaning there were only around 450 BTC available per day, our hash rate as a % of the network increased to 1.1% but on a lower availability to give about 70BTC, hence the total month figure of 167.
from start of July however if the network hash remains around 100Eh for which we have 1.1%, the difficulty has reduced to 14 resulting in block release time of 11mins which would mean approx 820BTC available each day, so at 1.1% (based on constant figures throughout the month) we would mine around 270BTC for the month.
apologies for boring anyone else with this :)
I agree, the BTC mining rate varies around 900 per day and the difficulty adjustment lags the hash rate change.
We have increased our hash rate % of the total network due to the drop off so hold about 1.2%, but the lag in difficulty increased block release times well above the 10 minute target. We had a bigger slice of a smaller pot.
Now that difficulty has been significantly reduced to match lower hash rate we will have a bigger slice of a bigger pot as BTC available will be back closer to 900 a day, July should be good revenue
Not sure if anyone still checking on this board
Sirius have issued RNS yesterday confirming 40% investment on ATOG for which would appear they have privately raised £4m from share issues at 1.75p.
Rumours of relist in Q3 at 2p.
Still not getting my hopes up yet after all these years but there may just be a glimmer of light.
Fingers crossed for all LTH