Member Info for Just_the_facts

ArgoBull
i am also fully vested and believe in the potential for ARB and BTC and have no plans on exiting near term.
the sooner we get NASDAQ exposure the better as ARBKF daily volumes are only 1/10th of RIOT and MARA plus a lot of II /funds that may not not necessarily invest in OTC markets, so definitely needed to achieve a comparable Mcap.
monthly mining revenues across all three companies are comparable and don't explain the difference in Mcap so that is why i try to asses the HODL impact as obviously RIOT and MARA have larger in that respect and also gauge and compare sentiment between them.
for me though, ARB stands out way above the rest for future potential given everything the company has put in place in such a short time and the benefits of such a forward thinking CEO.
thanks and ATB

Hi Hexam
regarding the monthly mining costs related to the monthly quoted margin, i have been trying to determine what is and isn't included but unable to locate any specific detail.
from April we had revenue of £6.7m at 85% so £1m for mining costs.
I know we have agreed rates for electric at US$0.03 so based on 32Mw for current hash rate works out to circa £0.5m/month .
Do you have any information on what the remaining £0.5m consists of in terms of overhead as i assumed this was most likely the leasing costs for rigs? as you seem to have this accounted for as a separate item.
thanks in advance.

ArgoBull
I fully agree regarding our NASDAQ peers, i just like to have as much data as i can to asses future potential and price and make an informed decision from that.
sorry if you had to read through all my ramblings :)

Hexam
appreciate you taking the time for such an explanatory response, need to read it a few times i think.
many thanks

Yemaj
How does one factor in the element of Tweet by Elon Musk when projecting the Share Price of ARB?

not easily for sure, i guess it would measure in sentiment at any given time and reflect as a PE ratio, my intention was to be able to get a handle on low sentiment and high sentiment PE ratios to determine potential boundaries for the two.

growthinvestor20
fair comment and duly noted, it's whether HODL is viewed as profit or cash in the bank or a mixture of both, as todays HODL in twelve months could be worth 1/2 or double what it is today.

thanks, much appreciated.

Apologies in advance for anyone not interested, if your not into spreadsheets then please don't read on :)

question for the spreadsheet nerds (myself included :)), based on a thread from yesterday and a discussion between myself and Hexam it was clear that we both had alternate methods for equating the value of ARB and would be interested in other opinion on this so that we can maybe get a combined and more conclusive forward estimate on share price and PE ratio.
my current format is based on working out annual net revenue (ANR) and HODL
ANR = monthly net mined quantity (based on 75% margin) x BTC $ price x 12 months
75% margin is based on the average declared monthly margin over last 6 months which accounts for cost of rigs and electricity (80%) plus a further 5% for general company overhead and salaries.
HODL value = BTC $ price x HODL quantity
Market cap $ = (ANR + HODL) x PE ratio
share price $ = Mcap / No. of shares in issue
share price £ = share price $ / GBP/USD exchange rate

worked example below based on end April results and current BTC price with forward PE ratio of 10.
ANR
(163 x 0.75) x $38k x 12 = $55,746,000
HODL
$38k x 936 = $35,568,000
Mcap $
(55,746,000 + 35,568,000) x 10 = $913,140,000
share price $
$913,140,000 / 381,761,289 = $2.39
share price £
$2.39 / 1.41 = £1.70

Obviously you can retrospectively apply varying figures to get a PE ratio from actual Mcap and also apply future potential mining figures for various values of BTC.
still unsure as how to incorporate Helios Texas or Pluto stake.
looking for any general observations or comments to help improve.
thanks in advance and ATB

sounds like we may be getting to that time again............................strap in and buckle up :)

Lol Stnz :)
apparently we have a complaints manager who is dealing with missed entry positions from previously predicted and guaranteed price levels.
You can contact :

@Drlong

total network hash rate is on the rise!!
on Wednesday last week it tumbled from 160Eh down to 124Eh and then it double bottomed again on Saturday.
Since Sunday it has climbed back up to over 170Eh as of now.
A positive indicator in my opinion that this will run through $40k later today.

Yep, I think when the RNS drops about the incorporation and direction for the epic rigs and Texas plans will be bigger than the current BTC mining aspect, hopefully we will be awarded some foresight of this in Q3
Lots of excitement to come

Feeling very confident that the support level at £1 is now very strong, anyone that was leaving has undoubtedly gone after the last few days and weeks, if sentiment picks up again and bitty does it’s thing then we could be on another spring board to new highs and the resultant yo-yo effect down again.
But confident that both the highs and lows will keep getting higher as we progress.
Still lots of excitement to come i think..........and probably some nail biters to :)

Its's amazing the speed of change in direction that occur's in crypto, hard to keep up with it sometimes.

If i was only just getting into this i think it would blow my mind , whats left of it anyway :)

Mitts
nothing obvious at $40k level from charts, when it went through 40k in early Feb it absolutely blasted through and didn't look back

spot on Mitts ;)

Knock Knock

Who's there

Doctor

Dr Who?

No.............Dr long gone :)

CMEU
I am sure if you look back over the content of this BB over weeks and months you will see there is a lot of positive attitude towards ARB in regard to what the company has achieved and the direction it is developing from well informed long term and new investors alike, the content does seem to go rapidly downhill when the likes of you, Drlong and several others turn up.
Take this thread, title and statement - it offers absolutely zero content or information that anyone can use and has no fundamental basis, it's only purpose is to antagonise a protracted responce.
So think you are the one that needs to take a long hard look at yourself!!!!

hexam
the HODL value will change as the value of BTC changes and in turn that can have an effect on Mcap.
In fairness i might review how I value MARA as 4,800 of there 5,300 HODL was purchased in January at circa $31k whereas ARB have majority mined there HODL .

The ARB hashrate is due to increase by end of June upto 1685Ph, i would expect this would result in circa 240 BTC/month dependent on overall network hash and difficulty levels.

Hi Hexam
for sure it's a debatable matter, as forward looking PE ratios are somewhat subjective, i keep a constant form of calculation month on month so even if my format is not necessarily agreed with by others it gives me some consistency on results.
I would ignore comparing share prices directly and just use Mcap as shares in issue vary from company to company.
Riot have a HODL value which is 2x that of ARB and MARA is more than 5x so I account for this in my workings as the monthly fundamentals for all 3 companies are currently similar in terms of mining capacity.
so my main reason for determining that PE for ARB and MARA being close and the Mcap being much greater for MARA is mostly down to the huge HODL they have.
Both RIOT and MARA also have forward announcements for increasing hashrate for this year and next year to 7Eh and 10Eh respectively, whereas ARB have 200Mw in Texas with usage type still to be disclosed.
I only use it as a guide for share price performance comparison as there are so many variables to possibly include all relevant information.
not sure if that helps as i confused myself writing it :)
thanks

Different Strokes???

April results , BTC mined in month, HODL number
ARB - 163, 936
MARA - 162, 5292
RIOT - 206, 1771
based on the above i keep a monthly tally on Mcap against BTC value so i can take a view on PE ratio (forecasted 12 months against each months results. Although the share prices have dropped, the PE ratios have somewhat remained intact, I currently have them pegged at:
ARB - 7
MARA - 8
RIOT - 11
based on $38k BTC