Member Info for Just_the_facts

the ATH in previous bull run was end Nov in 2013 and mid December in 2017.
agreed that at the moment the trend pattern for this bull run is of similar characteristic to the previous two.
In previous runs, it wasn't until Q3 that the really big increases occurred.
in 2013 the BTC ATH in December was multiple of x14 that of the price in April of that same year, in 2017 the multiple was x9.
huge potential here if we are on the same path!!
GLA

Pearls
Curious to understand how much actual factual understanding you have on BTC and ARB.
Do you know how many Bitcoin are mined daily and will be for the next 3 years across the entire network?
You offer only negative speculation with no substantiation of what you suggest.

SABY16
everyone who invests has to make their own assessment of risk, whether you plan a long term, mid term or day trade investment that suits their individual circumstance.
ARB and BTC from December to March have followed a similar trend path but it is not an exact match, sometimes ARB will precede and other times lag, it is only since beginning of April they have had some divergence in trend path, as BTC rose and ARB dropped along with most of the mining fraternity. From this divergence though their paths are just about back together and looking to cross.
As you say, your sentiment is reflected by the current price and your position, markets will constantly ebb and flow based on mass sentiment and is generally dictated by players much bigger than ourselves, all we can do is try and make best assessment of that movement and use it to our advantage.
i hope your position changes for the better in the near future.
good luck and thanks.

Morning All
I always find it way less stressful to take a helicopter view of my investment in ARB and then just zoom in if i need some specific detail, when you view the larger time frame the volatility seems a lot more predictable. There is always lots of discussion regarding the correlation of BTC and ARB and my own view on this is that they are intrinsically linked but definitely not synchronised, i.e BTC is up and ARB goes down and vice versa.
i always look to the fundamentals for ARB and chart out the historical and current progress of the companies performance which over time allows me to take a snap shot for any given moment to gauge sentiment or PE ratio, the fundamentals in ARB are updated and available on a monthly basis and for the foreseeable they are improving month on month. I take account of HODL, monthly mining, shares in issue, BTC price, margin etc to give me forecast Mcap and share price at a given point in time and also allows me to forecast future potential SP for various PE ratios based on maintaining a constant formula for the calculation.
From recording and mapping out the above i have found that the SP fluctuations have ranged from a low PE of 3 to a high of 27 relative to the fundamentals at the applicable point in time.
This leads me to assess that at the moment that fair market value would be somewhat centred between the high and low PE of about 15.
Based on current price for both ARB and BTC i have the PE at just under 8, which is relatively low and of recent weeks all of the miners have taken a beating on sentiment and price even though BTC has hit ATH within the last 2 weeks.
With volatile stocks you will always have significant swings in sentiment but they will tend to rotate around the fair market value and i use this to gauge any potential entry or exit.
It is my own view that the current BTC bull run is still intact but could still have a retrace down to around $43k level before the next big leg upwards and i have an expectation that both the BTC and ARB prices at the later end of this year will be incomprehensible for some.
I am a LTH in ARB, in since the IPO, and expect to be for some time to come as i take the long term view on the fundamentals, there are still a lot of LTH's invested in this stock and for good reason..............because they look beyond tomorrow and next week's SP. For any relatively new to ARB and unfortunately showing red on there accounts i would just urge you to review the historical information available for both BTC and ARB and then make your own assessment for the future direction of each, it may just calm your nerves some.
These are my views only.
GLA and ATB

a 25 - 30% retrace from a high is normal operating procedure for BTC prior to rise to new ATH.
bottom for this move should be around $45k.
no concern for me on this current trend, it is following expectation.
GLA and ATB

Euan06
You assume correct

the usage type of the Texas facility has still to be confirmed but would seem it will be more diversified than just BTC mining.
use of epic rigs, immersion tech etc etc.
for the basis of comparison though, if they were to use the 200mw for bitmain s19pro then that would give 61,500 machines capable of 6,700Ph, if you combine that with the expected hash rate to end of Q2 of 1685 then gives us a total over 8,000PH. this would be an estimated 1,000 BTC per month at current network hash rate and difficulty.
by comparison, MARA is announcing they will have 10,000PH by Q1 2022, ROIT expected to have 4,000PH by Q4 2021.

Extremely likely with the short term network hash rate drop from the China power cuts, it was projected it might last for a week, a good few extra BTC for the HODL

Amen to that Theprophet

after rising from the 60p back up to £1.40 in February, it then only took 4 trading days to jump to £3.40!!
when it goes, it goes :D

Quality that RC, how about

17. Racing Cyclist - general caretaker of the ARB BB, official welcoming committee for new members, general motivational commentator.

I’m in since IPO, added more, not sold any.

Barney
Delacey is our metaphorical ‘Billy Goat Gruff’ and defends the Argo bridge from the Troll invasion, definitely needs to be off your list !!!

no technical reason why the gap needed to be filled, just a psychological omission more than anything.

and at the moment it is negative sentiment. The de-rampers know this and show up like clockwork whenever there is a predictable retrace in BTC or ARB, they will ply you with random shock tactics in an effort to intimidate you into crystallising your red or declining position, WHY??? because they know a lot of nervous hands will fold and this will assist with getting their entry point.
There is no doubt that this space is volatile, but in that volatility is predictability, just look back at the last 4 months of BTC action, at this time every month the whales jump in and push a movement to trigger predictable stop loss levels and leveraged positions. Historical data is not a guarantee of future direction but if the predictability is there then it is more likely to follow because of expectation on mass.
the fundamentals in ARB are very strong but the short term sentiment is low as the share price reflects a PE ratio of about 6 at the moment. Sentiment is like a see saw and the balance can change very quickly. In my opinion we are reaching that balance point, the fundamentals will regain recognition and an upward trend will commence IMO.
Every investor will have various degrees of nervousness at times like this, so the more factual information you posses on your investment, the more likely you are to succeed in achieving profit on your investment based on your individual strategy and goals.
Remember the Key elements to your investment based on end March figures:
current HODL value based on 764 BTC at $55k is $42m
monthly revenue based on 165 BTC mined is $9m at 84% margin.
future hash rate increase in Q2 to 1685PH which would deliver an estimated 200BTC per month
Texas facility in progress for 2022 H1 with 200MW capability.
25% stake in Pluto.
No debt.
i would urge any investor to read past all the noise that occurs at these times, because in between all of this noise there is a lot of valued and factual information posted on this BB by respected and valued posters.
This will no doubt be a hard week coming, take your own direction thats suits your own circumstance, don't let that direction be dictated by others influence, the fundamentals are all there for everyone to see.
I am holding long term because i see the value in this beyond current events.
GLA and ATB

I suspect you are in self denial Pearls, that you are not a holder yet.
Sell some stamps and jump on the Argo express train as it will be leaving soon from this station :)

Hi Xenor, all the major miners have suffered this week, but i consider that in the case of RIOT and MARA have previously had much higher Mcap and PE ratio than ARB, mostly due to they are listed on NAS and have a much broader investor base than ARB, i think the coinbase ipo has had a large temporary affect this week but the ARB chart shows a further decline from an already low PE ratio compared to both RIOT and MARA which in my opinion makes it a better bargain.
this would make ARB more appealing to an ii more so than the others.
it is only my opinion.
thanks

A thoughtful post Tedoby and I share your sentiment.
I think it’s fair to assess that at the current time the majority share holdings in ARB are in PI hands, the fundamentals are excellent and based on present and future forecasting there is huge potential here.
It is my opinion that this share has been walked down to these levels intentionally by bigger institutions behind the scenes and they are using all the usual tactics to get there buy in price knowing they can rattle PI’s shares from nervous hands into there own.
I also consider that they may try to retain this level until NASDAQ is attained which I don’t think is far away.
I think a lot of excitement to happen over the near term movement and maybe some more bumps to get over short term but I remain absolute bullish in ARB as I view the longer term potential of this company.
Just my own thoughts and DYOR
GLA and ATB

Pearls is as predictable as a sun rise in there efforts to undervalue ARB.
The information they use to base there investment assessment on is so far out of date that you would need to use the Hubble telescope to even read it.
But then they do seem to be from a by gone era.
Good luck with your investments Pearls, no doubt you will need it.
ATB

great post Tedoby!!
just cashed out one of my more stagnant holdings to plough back into ARB.
£1.65 for me is on the .618 FIB retrace, don't see too much more downside to this and a correction is due.
GLA and ATB