Argo Blockchai. Share Price (ARB)

Another quarter has come and gone and Migi has avoided an equity raise but looking at the financial statements it appears between the end of Q2 and Q3 that cash has been worked down from $5.6m to $1.4m and there's been selling of assets to account for the rest of the cash burn.

If they can pull off a relatively painless refinancing deal that gets them through the next twelve months (it's a big ask) then there will be humongous potential upside there - one to continue to watch.

This was my post on Migi Argo comparison which got a fair bit of interest. Over two months has passed since, BTC has risen $10K so I think it would be useful to revisit it to see where things stand:

'I just took a little look at Mawson (MIGI) for the first time to see if that low mcap is justified... what i found either highlights how overpriced Argo still is or how undervalued MIGI is, or somewhere in between.

Argo mcap $52m, Migi mcap $11m

Migi's revenue for H1 was $18.4m vs Argo's $24m but one is going in the right direction and the other has been flatlining for an extended period. Revenue in August for example was $3.88m vs Argo's $2.93m with power credits unlikely to take the total above Migi's revenue figure.

Obviously it's the debt / net debt position that's in focus as it's a sector that's going to see many going by the wayside in the next 6 to 12 months. It appears Migi have reduced their debt to $24m which compares favourably to Argo's $72m. As recently as May they pulled off a $5m placing (50% of today's mcap) at $2.40 a share, with tons of warrants at $3.23 a share. Argo only pulled off a smidgen more than that in July.

Now the big issue is obviously liquidity. Loss in Q2 alone was $17.6m... cash as of June 30th was $5m. Obviously the bottom line is improving as monthly revenue picks up and debt is reduced which is a big plus. Cantor downgraded the price target to $1 from their previous $12 which sparked the last sell off (down to as low as $0.45). But if you look at the balance sheets as of June 30th Mawson has $55m net assets whereas Argo now has net liabilities (possibly back to neutral following the cash raise in July).

Only spent half an hour so any conclusions I come to will be fairly hollow but as a snapshot I'd argue that Mawson has a higher chance of surviving the next 12 months than Argo and if it were to reach a bull run prior to any radical financing steps needing to be taken it would see multiples of its current mcap.... At a fifth of the price of Argo it looks a punt worth taking at this price.'

Interestingly both company's valuations are essentially unchanged.

Which just means once the dam is burst there will be no stopping things. It will be chaos for a while but for once it might be an enjoyable chaos.

No probs - I do think they are overvalued because of these things - however companies can happily be overvalued for very long periods of time (did someone say Tesla?).

I think Gold and gold miners will run - but not sure they'll match the pace of BTC/BTC miners if things happen the way I think they might. Or maybe they run faster? Lots of opportunities seem to be out there just now. Feeling good about BTC and miners for the moment though and it feels like it's very soon to happen.

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