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Nero, I certainly hope we have a binding offer this year. Hopefully by end of sept. Personally I don’t find the lack of further visits overly positive. Ur we only need 1 buyer. However Shg had 3 offers2 being Chinese and no deal transpired . They spiked to around £130 m on news of offers. I do not consider Cnr as good a prospect as Shg or as valuable . I don’t see more than £120 m attainable personally which will fail to give an sp above 50 p and that’s without knowing exactly how many expenses will come out. If a 15% tax applies which appears likely that brings 120 down to near £100 less other expenses and it is still not clear how cash will be returned to us or how much.
What we do know is Mellon has vastly reduced his average so one would assume reduced the sale price requirements.
I expect a li ease
Seingred one step at a time, we need that first binding offer. No idea how long that will take, only that MC seems far more confident that we'll have one well before end of year if the sales process will be finalised by then (take that for whatever you think it's worth). I would also expect more warrants to be converted before the end of the process.
I would certainly expect some LTHs to offload a chunk on news of a binding offer if we get a re-rate and some decent volume, and keep some in play in case of competitive bidding.
Nero, I think if sale process completed means cash in our banks then highly unlikely. As I said calibre deal took just over 3 months from anounced agreement to completion so unless an agreed deal is finalised by end of sept it is highly unlikely. Since most here expect a “bidding war” after first binding bid for me conclusion this year is unlikely but it will take as long as it takes. Expect more 15 p warrant conversion before then. For me the first news of binding bid will be my the green light to exit rather than completion.
The initial process is already longer than initially forecasted which doesn’t surprise me . Completion of bfs was way late etc not to mention production.
The MM’s will only sell 25k shares on II AT 26.75 but will buy 25k at 25.10p and take as many as I want to sell above 24.6p… they are happy to buy but reluctant to sell, with a few buys this will bounce up nicely 😄
Jhongle, I want as much as possible for my 22 p shares but have always found being cautious and factoring the downsides best for calculation. Clearly the constant blue sky posting has led many down the garden path. More so than mc . Work out a sensible likely sale price, then factor in all the possible outgoings as best you can and likely no of shares. All basic investing principles that many here have continually disregarded. Then factor in mellons massive help yourself at 15 p . 40-50 p seems most likely imv.
If I am too cautious that’s fine but historically that’s not the case!
Good luck
Jhongle cont, with 200 m shares 70 p gives you £140 m plus costs . However there will be more than 200 m shares.
Here’s something to peruse from the rns history.
Condor S.A. has signed an irrevocable undertaking that, subject to the approval of the Nicaraguan Ministry of Mines and Energy ("MEM") by end-May 2020, it shall transfer (the "Transfer") to Nicoz S.A. the Potrerillos concession. Transfer documents have been filed with MEM.
Within five days of the Transfer being approved by MEM, taxes amounting of up to $90,000 shall become due to the fiscal authorities in Nicaragua, being 15% of the agreed consideration value of US$600,000 and which the Parties have agreed to bear equally. To this extent US$600,000 in cash has been paid by Nicoz S.A. to Condor S.A. and US$45,000 has been placed by each of the Parties into an escrow account with a third party agent, to be released and paid out upon approval of the Transfer. The net consideration to Condor S.A. from the sale of the Potrerillos Concession after deduction of taxes is approximately US$555,000.
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You may well be right Seingred, but I probably think that this asset is worth more than you do. Fat lady will hopefully sing soon
It wouldn't say "worrying" pdp, I would say "annoying". If the three site visits occurred from March, then it's been five months since the first. How much time for legal due diligence and negotiations for a $100-200M asset purchase? I'm no expert but I know how long £5M deals take to agree for the company I work for and 5 months is not that long!
MC has reiterated recently that he expects the sales process to be concluded this year and he is involved directly in negotiations so if it was looking like there was no binding offer in sight I doubt very much he'd be so confident. Though some investors may have lost trust with his judgement, but in that case look at the facts: £400M+ NAV, 5 non-binding offers, 3 site visits so far, 8 companies currently under NDA, etc.
It is highly likely the assets will be sold, the only questions are for what price and how much gets returned to share holders. None of us really know what's happening behind the scenes, we just have to wait and see.
I have to believe 40p is achievable but the amount of time it is taking is certainly worrying
Jhongle, I don’t believe there is much chance of 70p. There is almost 200m shares with many options and warrants to convert yet . That would make around 0
I meant no offence Sakura7, my memory may well be fallible, I thought you had bought at a low price in the last six months or so! Good luck anyway.
I think that this is an important point , namely that a lot of LTH's need 50p plus to break -even. Because of this high historic entry price, this seems to have always been a relatively thinly traded share as LTH's sit and wait to break even.
I know that this fact doesn't make the company's assets worth any more than someone is prepared to pay, but it does probably influence the strike price that Hannam are being pushed to achieve, and perhaps therefore the length of time this is taking to sell. I'm getting very bored of the waiting game now - but In my positive moments I do expect/hope to see a price closer to 70p ,than 40p. If you're in for 26p, should be no problem !
What do you think my entry price is! I am a long term shareholder- alas very long term
At your entry price I wouldn’t worry! A lot of the long term holders ‘invested’ here, myself included need around £0.50p to break even after a decade plus!!!!!
Are we doubtful this is going to sell for more than the current share price. I am starting to wobble
Points well made
Yep! Not to mention the epic fail of trying to sell the company last time. Also not doing more drilling (particularly on Cacao) if the plan was to sell the assets. How about proving up the ounces rather than some pie in the sky claims about 14 million oz? Onion = hapless IMHO.
How about a mine plan based on the assumption that you can railroad a whole community into abandoning their village? Trying to play hardball with locals, legal threats etc then switching tack and going way over the top with social programmes. Buying part of a mill for $6 million of other people's money to create the impression that you are serious about going into production when you have no intention of doing so. Constantly vacillating, over a multi year time span, over differing production scenarios. Thus presenting as indecisive and lacking clear vision. Need any more? Cos the list goes on and on.
ISA which were Mark’s naive decisions?
ISA - to be fair each investor has their own plan and whilst I’ve been in and out here several times over the best part of 12 years…. It’s been a close call I can remember years back reading what seemed like a great report valuing this at £1.68! At that point I was convinced it was going to production but need of capital at one point and up 100% I took my initial stake out and played with a free run, in and out
So we are all in different places (and with different needs) personally I’m still just up in both ISA and SIPP and seeing a good chance of another double but to be honest the management has been a shocker…. We wait, see and hope!
It’s natural and easy for emotions to come into play when you have invested, for what some people will consider a lot monetary wise and time wise!
ISA I think someone on here got too emotionally attached to Condor and his disappointment has resulted in constant name calling
I think he means that if we’re this close MC should be busy dotting the i’s and crossing the t’s. Is that correct SS69?
Seriously Slim, life is too short! This has been a trading share and whilst I agree Mark has let long term shareholders down with commercial decisions bordering on naivety we are still dirt cheap for the assets we have!
The shame is whilst I would be happy with 40p a lot of shareholders need a lot more!
Ispension busy Bud reading yr hourly updates for me this is far from positive in fact I believe it’s diss poor for this ,claimed world class asset asset I remember onion stated to me and the other 2 guy at the agm we will be done by summer , but he didn’t say what summer I been here sink or swim for 12 yrs I saying onions a ball hitter