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Https://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/brent.php
Well done Weirdpal
Sold all at 539p - nice £5k profit in all - still fundamentally bullish here but didnt like the overexposure. If I wasnt reliant on them to pay my mortgage I'd still be in!
GLA!
Thanks for sharing Mark! I’ll make my own mind up on a sell/hold shortly! 😂
Afternoon all. Been reading the exceptional posts from the sidelines.
An interesting article that will probably mess with your decision process regarding hold or sell. I hope it's of interest if not assistance.
Mark
HFI Research
Geopolitics Dangle The Prospects Of Higher Oil Prices, But Fundamentals Lag
HFI RESEARCH
APR 11, 2024
PAID
The prospects of geopolitical risks escalating have prompted some to believe that oil could spike to as high as $100/bbl. But we've been in the business long enough to remember Abaqiq, which physically took supplies off for a short while only to see both energy stocks and oil sold off materially after.
Geopolitical risk is like the carrot to the donkey for oil bulls.
It's ever-present but always far away. My advice to anyone trying to find a true edge in oil trading/investing is to ignore geopolitics. While it's never your job to completely disregard it, my advice is to heavily discount it unless something actually happens.
So as geopolitics dangles the prospects of higher oil prices for many, real oil watchers should know that the fundamentals have recently worsened. In our Monday WCTW, "Follow the Process." We pointed out that Asian topping margins have gone negative and crack spreads are following suit. Refining margins will be the leading indicator for crude this year, and with refining margins peaking and still trying to find the bottom, crude won't get the tailwind it needs.
To make matters worse, we think oil speculator positioning is likely to show another sizable increase in this Friday's CFTC report. Net long positioning is already back to October 2023 levels, a level which saw oil prices hit the $60s just a few months later.
One key difference to keep in mind is that while we don't expect a dramatic reversal in positioning, it does present itself as a headwind.
On the fundamental side of things, US crude storage saw a sizable build last week with another large build expected for next week's report. Looking at the current trajectory for US crude storage, April will be a weak month.
I'm out been a blast since COVID made some good coin here, never say never,but see where this goes ,gla
WP
One more bear case .
The famous sell in May and go away.
This time does feel different.
But I have lost count of the number of times I have used that after we get above £5.
When in doubt sell half.
But I know you will wrestle with it and make your own decisions
There is always a number that you decide will make you sell
( although personally when we get there I often try for just a little more)
Ii says fair value is 560 !
Wouldnt worry about that Charlie, we know bp struggles to hold gains.
I'm conflicted on if I sell a c: £45k position in bp soon. Again, my case is slightly different as I'm a little overexposed being an employee but the macro fundamentals are telling me not to -it feels like I'm trying to find a reason to sell and ignoring the below:
Bull case
1. Coming into higher demand seasonality, June brent contract at $90+
2. OPEC will still continue with their production cuts to support brent into mid 90's (brent used a base)
3. bp already promised $3.5bn buybacks in H1, still target a 4% pa increase in divi, so when this comes the SP will boost
4. ADNOC news is bullish
5. Murrary A has been downplaying previous production targets externally
6. Middle east tensions - Iran yet to strike back on israel for embassy attack
7. 12 month high was 562 at $94 brent - we could easily reach this with improved demand data from China (rumours circling)
Bear case
1. Bp doesnt hold gains
2. Middle east tensions die down as US gets more involved
3. OPEC starts reversing cuts to not impact demand (although I think this is nearer to $100)
4. Inflation stays sticky in the US (althought I dont think 3% inflation is bad if the target is 2%.
I'm assuming that the sunday papers will be all over this
If we end the week above £5.35 I’d be satisfied, above £5.40 I’d be happy, we’re not that far off from the highs of the last 12 or so months and we’ve got a strong first quarter to look forward to with a stronger start to the second quarter.
Charlie
I can read between the lines .
One thing for sure you would never bet against you getting your wish
I kinda miss Gingy's moaning. In fact I'd like to see the shares go under £5 again just to read those posts again. Nothing to do with me selling my shares on the cheap yesterday.
Getagrip
Very true.
It’s a nice problem to have.
We hit £5.37 and all I did was moan.
Maybe I’m turning into Gingy.( only joking, you have been good since we hit £5)
I will be fine after my holiday
If we are only ever concerned about exactly how much the shares have gone up - I will be happy, because they are great concerns to have!
But we certainly. will have more eyes looking over Bp
Plus the very low share price :)
Onwards and upwards
Pang you are 100% correct
I would love a take over, however I do not see it happening because of backlash from government on strategic value of Bp. ei loss of Taxes paid, and loss to an ailing London Exchange. I have vague memories of middle east interest buying 10% BP some years back and the government stepped in and made BP buy the 10% back. Correct me if i am wrong.. Good luck to all.
Agree Spights, think US investors will give more credence to M&A talk. oil sticking at $90 helps also.
Looking forward to Q1 results now! Not for the results but for the analyst Q&A.
Wait for the USA market:)
Feeling slightly underwhelmed by the rise in sp.
£5.30 s is nice to be back to, but we were here in October.
Plenty of headlines about the fact BP was looked at.
Maybe we need some headlines in the weekend papers saying we are worth £x.
Ps hope x does not equal £4
Https://www.energyintel.com/0000018e-cce2-d9cc-abce-fff60de20000
Trading currently on 7.5 times earnings against shell at 11.5, there is room to move up to 600p with ease
Yehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
I would say if Shell have any thought of BP this would make them have to decide.
I would think that if it’s even being discussed at Shell, they would not want someone else to get it cheap.
They are also the one company that probably would have little political problems buying BP.
And if they are not discussing BP behind closed doors, they better start.
Meoryou. A Very good morning
Excited yes :)))))wonderful news for all the shareholders here
The end of the silly valuation
:))))))))