The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Maybe this is too high a price for reinvesting dividends ? definitely not complaining though, loving this one at the moment, good dividend plus a gain on capital, not much not to like
As expected, the Dividend money arrives when the SP has fully recovered. I still expect this to be around the £5 level at year end, so thinking of purchasing more in December 24.. which gives the opportunity to get bank interest or other opportunities for the next 6 mths. GL
Trading announcement 22nd May
Hopeful of a breakout...... 500-550p
gla
Hi clued.
I was thinking more of the market in general as opposed to the parasites we know as shorters. Look as the steady rise prior to the announcement, coincidence? The market is one thing, the parasitic shorters something else. For me Thursday was the exception rather than the rule,welcome as it was.
Anyways, I am over the moon they got a bloody nose, I've always had confidence in BT bouncing back and hopefully making me even more money.
Feeling quite chuffed with myself for encouraging my son's to invest in a few over the last 12 months, although they now have a slightly better average than me :)) Hope you and others have made a bit as well. Have a great weekend in the sunshine everyone.
Jakeandelwood, "often find it hard to understand why some investors believe the markets act with or after any event. The markets are and always been proactive rather than reactive and ahead of the curve."
Interesting conversation you guys were having, but your above comment doesn't always ring true. BT's results on Thurs triggered a rise in share price of over 10% which hardly shows proactivity, this despite being well undervalued re Broker/Analyst fair values !! And BT isn't the only one... !!
TheT.
I'm afraid War distorts and abuses everything in its path, including normally honest citizens, so in turn distorts any statistics for normal comparison purposes.
I suppose if one was to take an overall cynical ( but proven time and time again) stance on the subject it would always come out as an "us and them" scenario with "us" footing the bill.
T'was ever thus I guess-some of the most illustrious names in the Kingdom are there only because of shady dealings in the past rewarded by others of an equally shady pedigree!!
Warthog, Are you suggesting that politicians and/or their chums didn't take every opportunity to profiteer from WWI and/or WWII? I suspect that the inflation-adjusted figures would certainly dwarf Covid.
WWII was actually the making of IBM; it had no problem providing tabulators to the Nazi concentration camps during WWII via its Swiss subsidiary and, apparently, Watson (its CEO) was on the first commercial flight into Switzerland after the war to collect the proceeds in person! I appreciate that IBM was a US company but profiteering was universal. German companies were at it too and, when the Reichsmark was exchanged for the Deutsche Mark in 1948, German companies were allowed to exchange on 1:1 basis, unlike everybody else who had to exchnage on a 10:1 basis!
Finley, Berkshire Hathaway is a completely different company from what it used to be and $189bn is lot of money to try and invest "covertly". I appreciate that BH holds a large stake in Apple and that at the end of December its investment amounted to c5.8% of Apple's issued shares and c50% of BH's listed holdings and that, despite reducing its holding since December, its investment still amounts for c4.6% of Apple's outstanding shares and c40% of BH's listed holdings. BH's holding in Apple is currently valued at c$135bn (this is in addition to the $189bn in cash).
That's a lot of money to tie up in just one investment (especially when you don't have any management control) and is not the size of stake that you can generally offload quickly at a push. I also appreciate that BH does a lot of due diligence before it invests but, even so, you can never be 100% certain of what's going to happen in the future (especially with Cook's habit of being economical with the truth at times).
I would suggest that BH's invetsment in Apple is a departure from Buffet's (and the recently departed Munger's) historical investment approach and is, in part, driven by the mound of cash that BH has accumulated. I would also suggest that BH is likely to continue to sell down its Apple holding because it doesn't fit with Buffet's long-term investment ethos.
Historically, Buffet would never have considered tying up such a large amount of money in one company without at least having seats on the BoD, if not outright control. BH now finds itself no-man's land; heavily invested in one company (Apple accounts for c15% of BH's current market value), with no say in its management or control and having every buy/sell open to public scrutiny. I'm not suggesting that BH will necessarily dispose of its entire stake in Apple but I would be surprised if it didn't (want to) significantly reduce it, which only increases it's current cash "problem".
I have watched the buy back volumes and they appear to be getting fewer and fewer, indicating they are not neccessarily the driving force behind the current SP. With this in mind, does anyone else think the dividend payment next week (which will involve a lot of automatic dividend reinvestment transactions) will put a significant spike on the SP? Based on the last few months, I think we could see a 5% jump from current SP easily, and considering the rosey future of AV I feel this is going grow in popularity over the coming months.
I meant to add the very apt saying of Plato:-
"If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your Government then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools"
Still holds good two and a half thousand years later but still we don't learn!!
The Trotsky
I wasn't setting out to portray Bryant as some sort of saint, far from it but at least he is having a go at being poacher turned gamekeeper for whatever reasons (including, almost certainly, settling a few old scores!) but in the final analysis what actually will change?
As for the size of past malfeasances beating today's efforts, suggest you look at the telephone numbers associated with the scandalous commissioning of PPE during the Covid scare and the extreme lengths numerous MP's went to to obtain lucrative contacts for their chums (Baroness M..e step forward please).
Those figures alone dwarfed anything in the past save perhaps for Ernie Marples the then Minister of Transport awarding huge road contracts to Marples Ridgeway then ultimately had to flee to Monaco to avoid prosecution for tax "problems")
Plus ca change!!!!!
GL
I do have to laugh when I read comments about giving Berkshire advice on what the company should be doing with its cash pile. Entertaining for a Wednesday. What would the great Oracle have to say, probably as always wait for value to appear.
At the end of the day a bit of advice I think they know their business and have been doing rather well for a number of years !
Very well written comments Trotsky. I often find it hard to understand why some investors believe the markets act with or after any event. The markets are and always been proactive rather than reactive and ahead of the curve. In general I have always invested with this as a first principle.
Warthog, All I can say is that Chris Bryant should know because he seems to have used every wheeze himself! He seems to have been quite content to snuffle at the trough (the expenses scandal), "mislead" Parliament (claiming that Farage, who I detest, was being paid by the Russian state without any evidence) and filibuster during the Gaza ceasfire vote.
To suggest that politicians are engaging in cronyism, nepotism, conflicts of interest, misconduct and lying more frequently and more publicly than ever before is, in my view, highly questionable (politicians got away with a lot, lot more in the past). Honesty and integrity have always been in short supply. As regards the Private Sector, they are hardly beacons of virtue on any of those issues (they may be held to account more frequently but I'd suggest that simple maths might have something to do with that).
I like Bryant and, indeed, it was sad to hear that his skin cancer has spread to his lung but at the end of the day he is, or has become, as "corrupt" as the rest of them and is definitely no "saint".
Being a contrarian's contrarian, there's your problem in a nutshell. You're looking at historic data (e.g. Starbucks results) as evidence that the downturn is continuing to build strength when in fact all historic data generally tends to prove is what we already suspected and/or subsequently knew. Markets historically have always tended to buck the trend and tended to move up/down ahead of the economic data.
Joblessness in the UK is still relatively low by historical standards and should start to curb wage inflation whilst increases in the economically inactive might, pehaps, start to boost our productivity (if businesses are becoming fitter and leaner). You also have to recognise that there's quite a lot of bad news already built in that is only now starting to filter through into the published figures e.g. joblessness will probably peak 6-12 months after the economy starts to recover. Nothing ever changes overnight.
From my own limited, personal experience of late, there do seem to be some green shoots appearing, e.g. local businesses seem to be doing brisker business, but it'll probably take a further 6-12 months before we really start to see that appearing on any economic radar.
I don't disagree with your view of financial commentators in general. As regards, Berkshire Hathaway, you've got to start to ask yourself whether it's become too large for it's own good. It's currently got $189bn sitting in cash! To make a meaningful dent in that cash pile, it's got to be looking at investing in c20-40 listed companies valued north of $100bn (unless it plans to take a significant managing interest or exceed the 3% disclosure limit). Buffet says that he currently struggles to find value but, in reality, it's difficult for BH's investments to fly under the radar and if BH takes a stake in excess of 3% then it's quite likely that it'll have to pay a premium to acquire and accept a discount to exit (which means that BH's investments have to work that much harder than some others). Also, investing in c20-40 listed companies isn't Buffet's historic style (he's tended to invest for the long term in a relatively small number of listed companies). BH could look to invest in unlisted companies of course but it will have its work cut out to invest $189bn. Personally, I think BH is now at risk of chasing (any) investments simply because it has cash buring a hole in its pocket and/or underperforming the market because it's got too much in cash. It strikes me that BH ought to now be looking to distribute at least $100bn of that cash pile via share buy back (being the US preference to dividends) which is no doubt anathema to Buffet after a lifetime of investing.
Agree 100%. The ONS publishes what Downing Street tell it to publish. The desperate death throes of probably the worst Tory Government on record.
Can heartily recommend you read "Code of Conduct. Why we need to fix Parliament-and how to do it" by Chris Bryant.
I'm only half way through it and absolutely stunned at what goes off in that House of Shame which, if perpetrated in the Private Sector, would have MP's and Ministers baying for blood. Makes me wonder how the system works at all
An example, today, of why I distrust most of the financial gurus who strut their stuff everywhere. Yesterday, reports all over the media stating the UK now 'out of recession'. Pull the other one. Today we learn that joblessness still rising and those economically inactive still rising. This mirrors the position in the US and their economy will affect all western economies. US earnings last week were very poor with even Starbucks taking a dive as ordinary folk cut back. Do your own research is the best advice I can give. Don't believe the myriad voices working on Wall Street or any other Financial centre whose job depends on 'keep going, everything is rosy'.
Buffa, RE: hoping for a downturn - No but do I expect one
Market corrections/bear market's are always going to happen from time to time, but when is not so easy to predict, would be interesting to know how you guys prepare for these events though
For myself most of my investments are in my sipp/pension pot, by choosing this type of pension protecting your capital is a number one concern
As a contrarian I don't always believe the narrative from governments and central banks. Like many, I hope, was not fooled by 'transitory inflation' etc. I am presently in the Warren Buffett camp with capital on the sidelines awaiting market correction. Aviva and many other sti ks are intrinsically good but virtually all stocks suffer in a downturn. US debt is unsustainable and I believe the UK is similar. Am I hoping for a downturn - No but do I expect one - Yes. How soon? Nobody could answer that but on a macro level it appears near term imo (I am a contrarian so apologies to Andrew Bailey who is always right?)
"Berenberg raises Aviva price target to 572 (550) pence - 'buy' "
Business doing well, interest rates due to fall...so yes, why not?
I don’t think we are looking at a market correction. Economy growing, a market that has written in a change of government, an independent bank about to reduce rates and value pickers in the US starting to buy.
The market is cyclical and as long as you are divested you are mitigated.
I think that OBNW has a very valid comment.
I'm no chartist, by any stretch of the imagination, but if you look at the 6 month view of the FTSE 100 graph and join the low points of the index on 17th Jan, 13th Feb, 20th March and 16th April, you can see the extent to which the index has spiked up in the past 10 sessions, and make a reasonable argument as to where any retrace might be. In the short term, I can see this coming back to 8,000 in June, (That's a 5% correction), and if not, 8,450 is where you might expect the index to be next January.....so it is growing more likely that there will be some cooling to occur over the summer. Question is, when might it retrace, and by how much, and which stocks might it affect the most. .
I have less years investing than OBNW, but I have been through a couple of crashes, and many market corrections over the years. A correction is deemed to be a market that falls, but only to a point that is still 90%+ of its recent peak. (That's 7600 at present levels - Feels unlikely, but falling back to 8,000 is very possible).
You could make the argument that "nothing goes up in a straight line", and to go and enjoy the sunshine, but, if you can time it so as to take 5-10% off the top in cash, it is like making a double dividend..... and what every your the size of you portfolio, and level of investing, it is these events that pay for life's treats!
This time around, I do think that the recent build of value will be protected to some point by the much heralded drops in interest rates, when it / they happen. There are now very few Fixed term savings accounts paying interest >5%, whereas there is quite a line-up of banks, insurers and other FTSE 100 Stocks that are paying "Progressive" dividends in the 7 - 10% range. Arguably, for the 7 - 10% payers to "fall" to only paying what is still a bank beating 5 - 8%, then that would result from a 25% - 40% rise in the underlying share price. - maybe it is precisely this that we are currently witnessing. (The market has risen only 15% in the past 6 months, and so a further 10 points, up past 9250 is infact possible).
In my view, It is definitely no bad thing to take a profit, and to sell into a rising market. And I agree about the point about not being too greedy, but if you want to extract a lump sum that is more than a "trading turn", you don't want to sell at a point that turns out to be the mid point of any retrace and subsequent recovery.
So, I think that the coming two weeks are key. I have already moved c10% of my portfolio to cash, and if there is +5% more in the FTSE, taking to 8800+, I will probably extend this to move a further 40% to cash.
Aviva has a trading update at the end of the month, and the inflation figures also come out in the next couple of weeks, and hence an opportunity to sell this at £5.20, and then buy back later for £4.75 before the arrival of dividends come back into play is starting to look very plausible.
I've been investing since 1963, so seen it all at least three times over. Impossible to time it so all I am warning is don't be too greedy. If we are lucky enough to see our quality performers up say an average of 40-50%, don't wait for 75% overall. Some of my 'speccies' will go bust and one or two might rocket. I am not including those. I am directing my comment only at the quality stuff in most portfolios. If like me you take a few gambles, we are obviously playing our luck with all those.
Oldbutnowisa is living up to his name thinking he can second guess what’s coming
Oldbut, what's make you think a market crash is imminent soon