RE: Capex9 Aug 2025 16:47
Afternoon Bamps.
I asked GGP for a breakdown of capex over the next three years (26-28 inc)
Reply:
"...We expect FY26 to be a peak year in terms of Telfer capex. FY26 capex at Telfer largely comprises:
Tailings lift construction – we are constructing all of Stage 3 and most of Stage 4; each lift creates approximately a year of capacity, so in FY26 we’re creating additional capacity for future years (once both lifts are complete, we’ll have tailings capacity through until late FY28)
West Dome Open Pit Stage 7 waste pre-stripping – WD OP Stage 7 is the mining area that we plan will provide the baseload ore feed from Telfer for FY27 – FY28. In FY26, we complete the large majority of the waste pre-stripping, so in FY27 most waste movement will be production stripping
Open Pit fleet – we are buying some new equipment and refurbishing some old equipment. This program is expected to continue into FY27, however a majority of the expenditure (~60%) is expected to be incurred in FY26
Drilling – we are undertaking the largest ever drilling program in Telfer’s history. Whilst we will continue drilling in future years, FY26 is a ‘surge’ year where we’re trying to collect as much data as we can to inform our Resource estimation and mine planning, and we expect the cost in future years will be lower.
For these reasons, we expect growth capital will be less in FY27 than in FY26, but not nil. Continuing to extend Telfer’s life will require capital investment; it is a mature asset that was underinvested under previous ownership. Beyond FY28, continued extension of the West Dome Open Pit beyond FY28 would require further cutbacks, which is what we are assessing through the FY26 drilling program and subsequent Resource estimation / Reserve planning. Of course before embarking on significant investments, we will carefully analyse their economics/returns..."
And to put figures to it (which are laready in the public domain):
FY26: A$250m (US$160m) approx.
FY27: FY26 accounts for approx 60% of capex going fwd (see above) So FY27: Approx 40% of US$150m...US$60m.
Total to end of FY27 currently approx: US$220m.
4 other brokers forecast way below this (FY26) (eg: Sprott: US$53m, Hartleys: US$100m) - maybe the brokers have been 'winded' by the actual results even though the true capex is still a paltry sum compared to Telfers output and returns during this time.
Aussie markets still trying to get their head around GGP, I guess.
Z
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