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Hi Dillon.
I think we'll manage! SD has the best of the best in his BoD's covering all the options (if they haven't already seen it coming). Nothing sparkling for us directly, I suspect - just steady as she goes - don't panic Capt Mainwaring!
Newmont (NEM) are pushing out 700k ozAu/yr @ Boddington WA currently which has been going for 13+ yrs and Hav might just serve Newmonts purposes nicely in the region going fwd, to complement this output and in a friendly jurisdiction.
It might be late in the day now for NCM to bump up their MRE(1) - as NEM have already put fwd their offer. But at some stage I would hope when HAV comes up in conversation - NEM agree to the current rate of progress (due mainly to Telfer expiring) and crack on at a pace.
Maybe, just maybe, NEM might bring fwd the DTM?
I expect NCM to fly tomorrow on the ASX, but GGP (IMO) shouldn't change....who knows.
Maybe an RNS from GGP at some stage when the dust settles? Certainly be sorted by the time he comes to London in March.
All IMO of course.
Best
Z
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/download/file.php?id=1146&mode=view
So there it is, in black and white (and a little bit of dark blue at the top).
Thanks Liam
Z
Been thinking about the quote(s) from "The Australian" recently, ergo - a sale of Hav/Telfer by NCM. It's a long shot but an interesting one.
I'm thinking - Telfer and Hav owes NCM atleast $500m (recent overhauls / extensions / construction, etc), to date..........and counting, as we progress towards the FS / next MRE(2).
IF......and it's a massive IF, NCM really do want to unwind from Aussie - using Hav as the starting point, then why not?
All they need to do is publish the next (uprated) MRE and advertise for all to see that there is a significant amount of gold down there, complete the FS and voila, the value of Hav doubles.
So let's say NCM spends a total of circa $750m by the time all of this is completed - what price would they sell for, to get their money back / make a profit for their shareholders / start their exit from the region? $1Bn, $1.5Bn? Maybe even $2Bn for Hav and Telfer?
This could be sufficient bait for another major to take it on.
And who do we have on the doorstep - Fortescue Metals might be front and centre for this, in the shape of Wyloo.
If Wyloo gets Hav, it will own just shy of 80% of it (NCM's 70% plus Wyloos existing 9% of GGP shares).
Now does FM (Wyloo) buy out this remaining 20% and remove GGP completely,
or
does FM (Wyloo) incorporate GGP as their operating arm @ Hav/Telfer and get SD to do another Northern Star again?
Food for thought. Or should I say: Pie in the sky?
Z
Quady, in the space of just a few posts on here today, we have learned this:
You said @ 1104:
"...However if I am right we will end up building Alpala for just over 1 billion and getting a quick open cut and then become self financing for very little dilution to advance to a full block cave operation...."
and Sangha has said @ 1302:
"... the strategic review heralds the end of an era where SolGold was “pretending they were going to build a block cave” mine."..."
So what makes you think Sangha knows less than you do?
C'mon Quades, hands up, the game is over. Take it like a man.
Z
Copperpot and DBW - many thanks. I'm no longer interested in the day to day machinations of this dreadful company (Solg), as I was this time last year. I 'pop in' occasionally to see if the 'paint has dried' but alas, nothing / nobody has changed......yawn.
My holding has been consigned to the bottom drawer for better or worse in future.
Regarding this article - it tells us more about what is/was going on inside Solg than the last 10,000 posts! Very interesting - and puts a number of issues to bed for me.
What it doesn't do (obviously - because Maxit Capital have pulled out now) is tell us what could/may happen in the aftermath of the CGP/Solg combine. Damn!
A very good find - thanks again.
Z
My neighbour has a Tesla. During the cold snap a few weeks ago, he couldn't get into the damn thing because the door handles wouldn't pop open because of the frost/ice! He had to use a hair dryer to free them up.
Z
Thanks for pointing out the change of mind from SD about the next MRE.
The roadmap has now been amended.
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=564
Appreciated.
Z
The beginning of my post was meant to read:
I agree with what you said, sharketmare - with regard to SD's approach.
And now that Bamps has added to the conversation - it makes sense that SD's team has "matured" with the addition of our new BoD's, who are fine tuning GGP's approach towards transitioning from explorer through developer to miner.
Z
(The Solg forum has gone to pot).
I agree wrt SD's approach.
I've seen changes over:
When the decline reaches the motherlode.
GGP's plan to issue a Q1 MRE(3).
Aligning with NCM's future reporting timelines.
His agreement to toe the line wrt delaying the FS.
It's too coincidental that this has all happened since the new CEO took over (I accept that SB is still pulling strings until March).
My view: SD and SB just didn't see eye to eye behind the scenes. I will go further and suggest that SB occasionally and deliberately blanked/blindsided SD because GGP is a minnow/junior partner and needed to know their place. SD had to then take matters into his own hands (again - all behind the scenes) to steady the GGP shareholder ship.
Hopefully they are now on the same page going fwd. Both teams working in harmony as they approach busy times @ Hav.
The downside for us is that NCM reporting on HAV will not be as much a priority as GGP would like it to be - due to the other 5 mines it's running. This will probably lead to long periods of silence - something many GGP PI's don't like.
Roll on August!!! (maybe).
One conciliatory note to end on: The light you can see at the end of the 2800m tunnel is (glistening) gold, it is getting bigger and it will be mined by this time next year.
Keep those posts coming.
Z
Bamps, is someone imitating you on advfn:
https://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=42315532&from=28215
Z
JAN 2023.
14/05/21. Decline commences. (460m deep / 2800m long).
15/07/21. Mine officially started.
03/03/22. GGP MRE2 published. [5.5mozAu / 218ktCu: 6.5mozAuEq].
01/07/22. 40Km growth drilling programme to end of 2022.
02/23. Scallywag and Juri results.
16/02/23. NCM Half yearly financial results.
Q1/23. Possible NCM MRE2.
Q1/23. GGP MRE3 expected.
03/23. GDXJ rebalance
27/03/23. NCM March Quarterly results.
Q2/23. GGP ASX.
Q2/23. F.S. Followed by Decision to mine.
07/23. Five Diggers 139m share lock in ends.
17/08/23. NCM Annual Results.
2023. Substantial growth drilling programme commences.
2023. Drilling commences @ Ernest Giles.
Q4/23. Exploration decline and ventilation shafts complete.
H2FY24. (01/24 to 06/24 inc). SLOS first Ore. First cash flow.
Q2/24. Sub Level Open Stoping (SLOS) construction commences.
Q2/24. First bulk production of Gold/Copper.
[Est production profile over 10 yrs: 25mt@3gAu/t / 0.44%cu] [2.4MozAu/109ktCu].
09/09/25. Co-invested Options (held by ‘new directors’ 9/22), tradable.
Q3/26. Possibly 2 Bulk Underground Mines (E Breccia and N Breccia?).
2028. B.U.M production. Operating in tandem with SLOS.
2036. SLOS estimated end of life based on: (4.2MozAuEq / 3Mt/yr / 12 years).
2053+. B.U.M estimated end of life.
Z
Having listened to yesterday's "Midweek Takeaway" this morning...............
https://audioboom.com/posts/8235686-midweek-takeaway-featuring-shaun-day-md-of-greatland-gold-aim-ggp
I have updated the Roadmap. Shaun slips in (@ min 4:00) the following wrt the decline:
1500m has been declared. Of this, approx 200m has been used for overtaking bays and spoil bays. So we are actually only 1300m down a '2800m' proposed decline.
So we have 1500m to go. Shaun expects us to arrive at the top of the ore body by....wait for it... early 2024. That means approx 4m/day decline progress. Well short of the advertised Byrnecut average rate of 5m/day. I was disappointed when I heard this.
Suggestions by myself (and others) of arrival @ the decline sometime between May and August is therefore way out.
What did cheer me up though, towards the end, is when he stated he can see himself holding a gold bar from Hav about a year from now. [Thankfully no change there then].
I have left the FS and DTM dates alone until I see/read otherwise.
ASX timeline seems nailed on.
to be continued........................................