Chinese take away27 Dec 2025 22:52
Eye eye, what does AI imply:
"...Is 28p good value?
For SolGold plc, 28p reflects a control premium on a distressed equity, not a clean NPV of Alpala under optimal funding and copper price assumptions.
SolGold has a world-class copper-gold asset but chronic funding issues, shareholder dilution, execution risk, and political exposure in Ecuador.
The bidder is pricing liquidity risk and time horizon, not the geological upside.
Bottom Line: Strategically: likely cheap. Financially defensible. Retail-holder friendly - debatable.
This is not a “steal,” but it is also not a generous exit. Why the board accepted:
Boards do not accept schemes like this because value is maximised. They accept them because:
refinancing risk is high,
capex funding is uncertain,
copper cycles are volatile,
dilution was the alternative.
The bidder can absorb long timelines, fund capex cheaply, and tolerate political friction. Retail shareholders cannot. That asymmetry explains the deal..."
Q1/26 will see the courts approve of the "friendly takeover", the company will delist and be 'no more' and we will get our payoff probably by late March 2026.
12 years in waiting for breadcumbs. Did I make money - yes. Has inflation corroded that profit to a large extent - yes.
28p for each of my shares in one of the biggest gold/copper/silver mines in recent years and at a time when all that metal is hitting all time highs?
I take comfort in AI's final statement:
"...Over the 12 years I have invested there were repeated strategy changes, capital structure changes, political risk exposure and still no construction decisions. The chinese buyer wins because it can capex without massive dilution, be patient, absorb sovereign risk and absorb lower IRR's than the public equity would demand. You are being paid 28p/share to give up the risk of massive dilution and much further long term delays toward production. You are not being paid for the true value of the resource. You missed the optimal exit window years ago..."
Z
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