Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Dip - Very nice précis indeed - thanks.
Tosspot - a refreshing post!
Z
If/when NCM provide Newmont with otherwise undeclared data on Hav - which they have alluded to, as a part of the partial takeover of NCM (and at a higher price, no doubt), they will do it confidentialy as described.
If then, NEM continue with the takeover bid - it will speak volumes about what NCM has under wraps @ Hav, methinks.
Z
BlueToff - take time out to research who the biggest financial benefactor is - of Ecuador.
Ecuador are up to their eyeballs in debt to the chinese.
If the chinese want ENSA - and solg wants to get rid......the chinese will walk into it with absolutely NO opposition from the government at home, let alone any other government/business.
Z
I don't consider myself a tiny tiny investor, Jerry. I am above average height last time I looked!
I also have a serious number of shares in the Hav story.
I don't think you deliberately meant to alienate some posters on here with your recent post alluding to them being uninformed regarding this takeover theme.
As some have said - provided civility presides over one's views - all are welcome to comment, no?
Maybe I can still taste the recent friendly takeover by Solg on CGP this week and maybe GGP might find themselves in a simialr boat where the major @ Hav buys GGP's shareholding out @ Hav on an amicable basis.
I have mentioned a few times over the past several months that once we go to production, what exactly does GGP bring to the party thereafter; no labourers/skillforce/machinery/money/additional expertise? No-one has responded with a sensible answer. So it would make sense for a major to accumulate the lot @ Hav.
That would be a short term win for PI's, I think.
GGP being allowed to remain a junior JV partner @ Hav is also on the table obviously (but I would like to see the reasons why this scenario would work). Another win for PI's.
Where I think things 'could' go pear shaped (IMHO) is if GGP decided independently to try to buy out the major @ Hav to the tune of billions of pounds (buying the real estate and financing the production of the SLOS and Bulk Cave in future.
Yes - as you stated - in the long term it would be nirvana and propel GGP into a mid tier league but in the interim, especially in the short term, the cost of servicing the debt could keep the SP in the doldrums for a very long time.
We're expecting income in the region of approx £100 - £130m/year if the throughput optimises @ around 450koz/yr. That is the gross figure before the 10% telfer charges, et al.
Borrowing billions more will savage future free cash flow (@ Libor/sonia/rfr of around +8%) through debt repayments.
The SLOS pays for itself in 4 to 5 years time. How much longer will it take if we dive deep into debt?
I'm with you long term - I fully understand that 'vision'..........but as I have always stated: Time is money.
Best
Z
God help us all if GGP try to buy out Hav/Telfer. We would be diluted beyond recognition.
I am as certain as I can be that SD has no plans to choose this perilous path.
Instead, in some shape or form, the preferred route (should a choice be made within the GGP apparatus) should be that Wyloo takes charge and encapsulates: Hav/Telfer/GGP.
GGP sells to Wyloo for a premium, Wyloo own the entire 'shebang' - lock stock and barrel and SD becomes the MD/CEO going fwd.
It is no coincidence that there are 3 directors together with a major shareholder - all of whom have strong links to Twiggy. I think most of us know that by now.
Follow the money.........
Z
Greggie - ask yourself one simple question,
“Why has SD bought in one of the most professional BoD’s in the junior miner marketplace, along with securing funding to production- IF GGP is susceptible to an offer?
What do you think will happen?
Stay focussed Mon amie
Z
Redtrader - I tried, using one syllable words but it seems you fail to grasp even the basics.
Are you suggesting ByrneCut are dragging their heels? Do you honestly believe they can go much faster?
I particularly loved this comment:
"...When we reach the ore body Newcrest can walk away..."
Are you suggesting that after spending just shy of $300m getting to the top of the motherlode, they will give up and go elsewhere???
Maybe the SP is connected to the decline - as the decline goes down.....so too does our SP.
[That's a joke by the way].
I have to say that with posts like yours, you are exposing yourself to ridicule simply because you are advertising a complete misunderstanding of fundamental basics in mining.
Can I suggest other stock instead - M&S perhaps?
Whtat was it Abraham Lincoln said:
"...Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt..."
Z
"How long has this been going on...." Isn't that a song?
CGP stopped trading today. so 27th Feb seems reasonable.
Now we know why everyone left the company a while back. They could see that senior management were " milking the machine". Cuzzoobo or whatever he is called then had to go.
I pray that Solg spins off Cascabel - the jewel in the crown - to someone else who actually cares about Cascabel. I don't care how much it goes for as long as it is anything over 30p.
It's like treading treacle.
I've emailed Solg and told them my thoughts - perhaps others might want to do the same:
investors@solgold.com.au
Z
Good afternoon RedTrader - hope you are well.
To respond as accurately as possible (based on what SD has said in the past), the projected length of the decline is approximately 2800m. The decline is approx 7 degrees. Final approximate depth is 460m. It is currently designed to accomodate approx 3Mt/yr extraction rate. This may/may not be altered in the FS.
It is important to understand however that there are 'known unknowns'. Type of material they are digging through, water issues and so on. He hasn't articulated about the number of passing places and or enroute storage spaces for the spoil/ore during extraction.
Might I remind you of the stop/start issues we experienced as the decline penetrated the permian layer, several months ago?
We seem to be progressing (currently) @ approx 6.2m/day. Tomorrow it could be 8m/day, next week it could be 4m/day.
'RationalAssessor' kindly continues to plot the projected end of decline date here:
[Valid end of Jan 2023].
https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=479
Here is the website covering Hav, by the diggers themselves:
https://www.byrnecut.com/projects/oceania/australia/havieron/
[I have emailed them to update the page - some has been, other aspects have not].
Sit back, relax and hang in there for the final leg, eh? Tantalising as it is - the prize will be in reach very very soon.
Best
Z
Let's play: "Join the dots":
Existing GGP BoD consists of 2 x FM senior exec's and 1 x NS senior exec.
Recent newcomers include 1 x FM senior exec and 1 x NS senior manager.
Wyloo owns 8.4% of GGP. FM owns Wyloo.
and finally:
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.afr.com%2Fcompanies%2Fmining%2Fnewmont-takes-a-bite-mid-caps-wait-for-the-crumbs-20230206-p5cicu
"...“Non core assets might be considered for sale, such as Telfer-Havieron ....."
Z
Good Q: Obviously my personal view and one I have been harbouring for some time:
Assuming another MRE indicates approx 4MozAu Ore reserve (Up from existing 2.9Moz).
I estimate the value of the entire mine to be approx £4Bn. GGP: approx £1.3Bn.
5.5Bn shares in issue. Gives me a SP: 23p - 25p.
Maybe there will be a premium added to this (20-40%?).
30p+ ??
This is *** packet games I'm playing, so please don't take it seriously or get upset. It is what I am planning for personally - to meet my investment objectives.
I don't really care what happens as long as I see an SP in the region of these figures, I will be happy. Anything above this will be icing on the cake.
Best
Z
Exciting eh?
So many opportunities now surfacing.
Having seen today's RNS, reinforces my post: 3rdFeb@1711.
"...So let's say NCM spends a total of circa $750m by the time all of this is completed - what price would they sell for, to get their money back / make a profit for their shareholders / start their exit from the region? $1Bn, $1.5Bn? Maybe even $2Bn for Hav and Telfer?
This could be sufficient bait for another major to take it on.
And who do we have on the doorstep - Fortescue Metals might be front and centre for this, in the shape of Wyloo...."
And today - SD further strengthens his BoD leaning once more towards Fortescue Metals for experience...hmmm?
In for a penny in for a pound, so here goes:
Numont and Newcrest consolidate (70/30).
Newcrest hives off Telfer/Hav and FM buys it from NCM.
FM(Wyloo) then buys GGP out.
SD remains and runs it (and other tenements) on their behalf.
Job done and Robert's your mothers brother!
Any questions ;)
Z