Member Info for zccax77

And you have read about the latest FCA restrictions right? Hope you didn't buy from higher up. Been a FC customer for years and have a CFA. I can tell you in 6 months this will be less than £1, 1 year 50p.

Have you even looked at their balance sheet. Not sure you understand how these entities operate. The reason their interest is so high is because they have entered interest rate swaps which have a high termination fee. Why do you think they have a massive £200m+ liability on their balance sheet. They cannot willy nilly exit these agreements. The £200m liability is due to forward rates going lower than what they had originally estimated and hence having to book the liability now and unwind in the future.

And no they cannot refinance in EURO’s and have a balance sheet mismatch between assets and liabilities. If you want to see how badly they can go wrong google what happened to the gherkin’s previous owners who had a loan on the building in CHF all because rates were lower in that currency. You will see how nasty things can get.

Red close, too many daytraders happy with 20bps.

My buy-in point is coming up, £25.

Umeed you are deluded. Debts are the second biggest reason companies fail, the first being poor cashflow. There is a reason they have to pay 4.2% interest on their debts, since that is the risk premia above and beyond the risk free rate. The only reason you pay 1% on your mortgage is due to the BOE/FED put, the same does not apply to risky assets.

@Sain - you are far too negative. Wage inflation is 3.4% at the moment, this will eventually feed into spending.

https://www.ft.com/content/2f777656-9854-11e9-9573-ee5cbb98ed36

There is a wall of money out there!

If they sell their Spanish assets then the £1.2bn of debt maturities in 2021 are not an issue. However what is more of a concern is the £0.8bn of maturities in 2022. They will have to sell some significant assets to bring LTV down at that point, which is why they are refinancing Trafford and if they can sell that 50% of that they will be fine. Question is who would want to buy such a property returning 4.4%? I think they will need to get it down to 5.5% to get it away which is a 20% discount.

If you read the R&A back to front you will see how they are pivoting towards leisure activities, which will reduce their dependence on fast women’s fashion same with HMSO. I doubt many retailers will vacate INTU centres due to high footfall, you have to remember rent is only a small component of tenants turnover (~10%), even if the tenant closed their intu site and moved to a cheaper location how much would they pay? half? What impact will that have on turnover and footfall and you have to remember the other significant fixed costs such as labour do not suddenly get any smaller.

Look at the US which is 2 years ahead of us and has 500% more retail space than the UK and lax planning, entities like SPG are thriving.

Umeed I care little for the retail experience and shopping centres. But there is one thing I know which is that online retail is unsustaintable due to high fulfilment costs especially young female fashion. I see bishes at work constantly order shite from Asos and do returns. 3 of everything in different sizes, sometimes keep one and send them back. It is banal, imagine some person with first world costs sorting through their returned packages and figure out what to do with their BO smelling items. Unless we are replaced with rebots it will fail.

Nothing moves in a straight line:

https://www.insider.co.uk/news/golden-age-online-retail-over-17261374

They need to sell Trafford centre. They will get top dollar for and will resolve all their debt issues in one go. Only problem is JW won’t allow them.

No such thing when shite moves by 40% over a few weeks

I think alot of buyers are waiting to see how brexit plays out before they jump in. JW is probably in the background scheming on how to beat them at it, though not sure he can buy it himself with Olayan, the equity is not the problem the debt is. Who would lend him/Olayan the money.

They can get them away at a 20% discount, they all apple stores FFS, that alone surely must be worth something.

If the Motley fool writes about it it is time to sell. They had to jinx it.

O really

That 11.5% is a better outcome than what the market is currently giving INTU's equity which is a cap rate of almost 20% across their entire portfolio, obviously this is leveraged. Sorry not a surveyor but have a CFA.

Sain you are far too pessimistic. At the end of the H1 I do not expect the published rates to move more than 50bps. He who pays the piper calls the piper calls the tunes, those RICs valuers will work their magic. However we all know those rates are unrealistic and they should be nearer 5.5% at H1 and nearer 6% at year end, hopefully the bulk of the CVAs should stop by then.

Agree with you all should go up, but first it must go down to £25 :)))))))

Umeed, I am confident of the management in this. MR is a smart guy, after all he was instrumental in selling DEBS to the PE guys. MR will find a way out, and selling to PE again, hopefully at 120 a share.
No one will pay more than that, since there are a low numbers of PE buyers for such assets out there apart from Brookfield. Those guys usually pay 20% discount to true book value.
I think true LTV is between 70-80% have a look at the annual report, Lakeside has a capitalisation rate of 3.9% and the Trafford centre 4.4%. I think they should be nearer to 5.5% and the rest of the portfolio nearer 7%+ in line with the recent JV deal with Cale St including that dodgy water-fall. RIC’s are a bunch of crooks, though INTU assets are valued similar to some of HMSO’s flagship UK assets, so might be the same valuer.

@Cronkite, buddy should have come out at £40, there was plenty of opportunity. No doubt this will go up again in the next few months, all is not lost.

@Cronkite, buddy should have come out at £40, there was plenty of opportunity. No doubt this will go up again in the next few months, all is not lost.