Member Info for wyndrum

"Short term Vs long term thinking. It’s not deal or die at all."

that pre-supposes and assumes a number of things.

One that it will all come good in the end (but when is the end? 1 year 5 years 10 years?)

Two that a lack of cash will not stop the company "succeeding".

Why pick on £10m in the bank? How about nothing in the bank and massive dilution?

There are so many variables its impossible to know where this goes and in what time frame.

We will only find out after the event, but experience suggests there are a number of red flags waving currently.

You do realise that if/when the shorts finish closing there will be nobody left to buy the stock......

I understand why people who are long get pleased when they see a short closing but they often conflate it with being good news, rather than just having completed a successful trade.

Professionals tend to have targets and care little or nothing about being right or wrong. Just because they close out a position does not mean it is likely to fall or rise further.

(Its Pi's that seem to get obsessed with absolutes, with the all or nothing approach. It's either doomed or will go back to 300p per share. )

Sticky, I don't think the US is nothing, (quite the opposite in fact), but its value compared to the current Market cap of HE1 is too low for it to affect the SP.

What it does, is that it gives HE1 a floor of probably around, best guess, .3p per share. So, if TZ did not, for whatever reason become viable then HE1 would not go bust. So even if income doubled at Galatica through better flow rates etc etc than expected,it would "only" increase the value to .6p and as its already .95p you can see why these RNS's are having no effect on the current SP

So, although its a distraction right now, it looks increasingly to me, a decent insurance policy.

Ha!...well, thats fair I think. Interesting D... Sums up the last few years pretty accurately.

Thanks for taking the time

Muffy, I don't see it quite in that machiavellian, way.

Its just (imo) more likely that the questions that the more sceptical here have been asking for answers to for some time now, are increasingly difficult to refute or respond with a coherent narrative that does not contradict what they have said previously.

Even Ice has cooled off a bit I think.

And I can't be the only one who notices that when awkward pertinent questions are asked they are ignored and a straw man response is used.

Who cares who askes the questions! thats not really the point is it?

Ah good one JFK,

so you ignore everything the BoD say?

like ... the paradigm shift in cancer therapy ? The worlds best Covid Test.... missed timelines. financing not being a problem

Watching, I am neither happy nor sad.

Its just a holding in a company that to date has promised the earth and delivered almost nothing.

It won't affect me emotionally at all if this fails or succeeds. (and certainly not financially.)

Again, some here might have realised that the longer you hold a stock the more emotionally attached you become to it. (Whether it rises or falls in value). If that is the case, then you have to figure out if that's a good thing when making investment decisions or not.

Imo, announcing the £450m injection is aimed at the employees to reassure them that they will take the company forward and hopefully not too many staff jump ship while this is potentially going through.

JFK, its been a lesson over the years (along with other small caps in the same sector), to see the playbook of the different BoD's interviews and how they describe results, data releases etc and how the general reaction on BB's is to these remarks followed by how the market see the same data and comes to a polar opposite conclusion.

Its been a confirmation for me that (in most if not all cases), the SP is rarely wrong. Which in turn means its prudent to dismiss a lot of what the various BoD actually say.

Its confirmed that "high risk" (which sounds exciting) actually means almost certain capital loss (which sounds less exciting) and that the bias shown here (as an example), confirm for me the predictability of crowds.

Recently (during the last 12 months) I have moved more and more of my trading money to blue chips and am finding returns better and more predictable. This is due to research that can be more reliable (I think that is due to its more transparent) rather than research in companies such as AVCT which is pretty meaningless as you never have enough info to make an informed decision. (Ultimately its a gamble that just maybe they will pull it off.)

So while I have reduced my holding here to a relatively paltry amount now, I still want to see how it ends.

It may all turn out wonderfully for all concerned but I think currently, that is less likely than more.

"As to the management's competence, I'm not convinced they understand AIM or their investors."

I am not sure I agree with that. They are in a trial. They have limited control over it and the time it takes to enrol patients and perform the tests and collate the data etc etc etc. Then analyse what comes through, decide what to tweak, maybe even a change of course on what to test for.

They have limited financial resource. That is a fact that does not change, and it would make no (material) difference what investors they have/had or what market they are on.

Its about results.

And I think it must becoming clear to all of us that whatever we have thought previously, there is little evidence that this tech has yet produced the data that the interviews and BoD hyperbole that followed through all the stages thus far.

I don't think there is any evidence it has exceeded any expectation and that was a wonderful throw away remark that could not be either justified or at the same time, brilliantly, contradicted. (Because it was just an opinion)

P1a clearly has not been definitive. Therefore P1b is in my view at best going to show some improvement of just using Dox, but even that is unlikely to be uniform and my best guess the data will be nuanced rather than blockbusting.

"But what I do know serious investors Are sitting quietly and waiting patiently"

How do you know that?

You just invented that out of thin air. Was BG a "serious" Investor?

That was pretty desperate even by your standards.

"Shut up it’s peanuts in a years time"

Its peanuts now.....

still think ND listing imminent?

Not at all Rich, but if you are going to imply through your opinion, misleading conclusions from my posts then, now I have corrected you, you can change your opinion, can't you.

Or, will you decide that no matter what happens in fact, (ie funds selling, long term SP decline, etc etc) that the cause of that is "Reading doom and gloom into everything seems to be they way of certain posters who perhaps have an agenda."

So as I say, have what ever opinion you like, but those opinions, I am sure we can agree, should be based on the facts to hand.

"Reading doom and gloom into everything seems to be they way of certain posters who perhaps have an agenda."

Disclimer: My agenda is to preserve capital.

BG have a speciality fund for small up and coming bio techs. They did not have to sell AVCT to raise money. They had a choice of other companies but AVCT was one of the few they decided to let go. As Thorn points out, they gave their reason.

To decide its "reading doom and gloom into everything..." is deliberately inaccurate and the implication of an "agenda" is also deliberately misleading.

Likely to be very volatile today with rumours galore affecting the SP. Gamblers paradise, (but not in a good way, as the house always wins)

Is this all you do Punter? Report posts that hold a different view to you?

What is it you are so afraid of? What are you trying to achieve? Just a 100% echo chamber?

And in this whirlygig of reporting posts, what has in fact happened to the SP? Has it not remained static at under 1p for some time now when I (and others) suggested that the price was unlikely to be affected by the US arm?

Your analysis (when you bother to offer anything approaching that term), has been wrong so far.

This stock will only appreciate from here when good news comes out from TZ

Ben. "Suggesting they have better data than ‘us’ is classic indisputable fud"

I actually said, they have the SAME data as we do but perhaps their analysis is better and less emotive than many here.

So by mis reading (or seeing what you want to see) over my post, you come to the wrong conclusion.

There might be a lesson there for you in objectivity.

There is little gain overall in being a LTH in high risk, small market, loss making companies.

Timing is absolutely everything as there are no "fundamentals" on which to base long term views on.

This obvious investing fact is "argued" by many lth here, yet still their bias won't let them accept the reality of companies such as AVCT.

it does not mean they won't succede but its another thing to see if the holder actually profits from the holding.

Whats your point Goldie?

I have expressed concern for the cedibility of the trial over tha last 2 years based on a differnent set of criteria to a LTH.

Which system has proved most accurate? Which system has helped the shared goal of both systems to preserve and potentially incease capital?

You go on like its abd thing to make monet trough stock picking?

Except of course it isn't.

What I think gets your (and others goat), is that I gamble, and succede (enough) and your pious, research, LTH philosophy has proved to date to be wanting and thats what sticks in your craw. (My analysis tends to be more accurate because the criteria and metrics I use are more trustworthy. But then again its just my opinion and you have yours, so who cares, not me for sure...)

"i'm happy that that is utter ****** though with the evidence of recent data"

What.. like the LFt data? This isn't a dig at ytou particularly Tim, but we were led down the garden path before with "data" and "results", but for goodness sake, does it never cross your mind that we were duped then, we might be being duped again?

"I'm afraid gross incompetence strikes me as a suitable response in this circumstance."

Yeah, of course B2H... why wait 6- 12 months for a multi billion dollar payout and a transformation of the funds performance and pick, of all the candidates, AVCT to sell..... really? you think its incompetance? thats your unsubstantiated reason? What proof do you have of sluring the fund manager(s) competance.

This is not a spur of the moment decision is it. (they may have come to the wrong conclusion in your opinion, but they have the same data as the rest of us but probably better, less emotive analysis.)