Member Info for wyndrum

Sheppy I still work in an office but I have requested a sun lamp to put some colour in my cheeks so as to make you happy. I am just waiting for HR's reply.

(You should never judge people by your own standards....)

Well, its being tested now on patients who are not resistant to Dox so what efficacy is shown should be seen straight away I guess, what with all the extra dox in the tumour against what would be expected. on 3 week cycles I would have thought 9 weeks (3 cycles) would show something surely?

I know it will need to go on longer to get more conclusive data but I feel this is very much (again with AVCT), a race against the clock, and promising initial results will be absolutely key. Maybe AS will be right, and its not hyperbole after all.... we will see...shortly....

Ah Tim, thats the trouble of filtering what is said, you have to guess. (as you comment so often on your "green boxes" with your clever filtering, it somewhat defeats the purpose of ignoring us.)

Still, today both sides have been well aired explaining the pros and cons as best we can. I found it helpful.

I know you won't (apparently), be able to read this.... :0))

XSG is on the verge of a break out..... (from a TA perspective)

Perhaps it is because of the expected larger international contracts and complexity and timescales with alot more moving parts required a more global reach auditor?

If so, thats a good tick up in sales expectations. (imo dyor etc)

Maybe we are the same person D. Its just we think the voices in our head are 2 different people...?

I analysed/talked myself into buying some today too!

( Partly I think they can hold out financially to P1b data and am gambling it will prove effective enough at a minimum to allow some appreciation from here, and also it held on the support line and has bounced off it. The fall by a penny takes it to a very small retrace level which might be significant if it rises from here and totally irrelevant if it falls again....(Its not an exact science.....)

Anyway, well done with your quick win yesterday!

"Hindsight traders only ever post there wins like they're some kind of prophetic geniuses haha Fooling nobody"

So in the future, when AVCT is £25 per share and you tell everyone perhaps on another BB where you have re-invested your gains, you bought at 34p a few years ago, how many do you think will believe you?

" ..I've always suspected he holds and continues to add as he can at the low price he promotes. Much more likely that shorting.."

Well thats progress, its pretty much what I have been saying for years. And of course I continue to hold because I believe there is a chance of great appreciation.

What I am prepared to do that most of my most fiercest critics don't, is that I will move my AVCT holding up and down depending on how I perceive the new information released.

I read the same data as you lot, it looks often compelling, however I thought that too about the LFT, so that tempers my enthusiasm, but on balance it looks like a done deal, so why does the SP keep falling?

Again many of you post you don't care but in truth I think you do and if the SP kept rising on the back of new data you would be shouting from the roof tops how the market is getting on board because they realise what AVCT have, (and so would I.!) But it isn't, so the market logically, can't be right when the SP rises and wrong when it falls.

But you can't ignore it because it affects your investment return and also the ability of the company to raise money, so it is very important, which then leads to AVCT doing its best to raise the SP level, but they can't. So that suggests to me the risk/reward is still skewed to more risk, less reward from a market perspective.

All this reading the runes, suggests to me its still a punt at this stage. and big investors don't "Punt".

I think a cash raise is coming but I don't think it can do that on this present data set. There will likely be a P1b update, even if its very early and just starting (ie a couple of months). IMO, there will have to be a reason beyond what has gone before, to entice anyone to stump up more cash. So now, give or take, this could be a good place to buy.

However, if a cash raise comes with no P1b data then it will be very painful and the implication could be drawn that the lack of P1b data update, could be that it is not as effective as promised and a SP to match. (Ouch)

Its tricky (well, up to a point), in that we don't know what's going on behind the scenes. We do know that P1a Data does not move the market. We Know good P1b will.

Roll up, roll up, buy your tickets here!

"For others it is clearly because they need the stock to fail for shorting/SB reasons"

AAHHH!!! Another totally and utterly baseless assumption. But if you decide to believe that baseless assumption I guess it helps you justify other potential risks that might be worth looking at as Thorn so rightly suggested ""Watch out Captain can't you see the Rocks!" "You don't see them if you keep your eyes closed Bosun"!

There are more than the 2 options you suggested.

And the reason you are bored is due to the flimsy rationale you are putting forward which is so easily contradicted.

"I trust that the BoD know that they can't have a placing at these levels, so they must have another plan."

Based on what? past history in the company? The ease of which the company attracts financial directors? The amount of licensing deals done to date? The business acumen of buying DX companies? The current CEO's experience in this field?

They MAY have a plan or they may not. As an investor I concentrate on the latter to see what likely impact that may have on my capital holding. To "trust" the BoD to have plan is remarkably... well.... trusting..... on your part.

Alderban, "Your right. Wait for all those things then invest if you can."

That's it in a nutshell. YOU CAN INVEST after all those things come to pass. To say you can't is lunacy.

What you are saying is, take a bigger risk now for potentially greater reward later. Fine do that, but don't at the same time pretend there are no risks to an investor buying in now.

There is no logical reason why with ever greater data releases results in a lower SP. Except for either, the data is not as good as it seems or, the company has not the resource to complete the trial. Both of those reasons equal risk. (the individual can decide how much risk).

You can choose to think there are NDA discussions going on behind closed doors but you have no proof that this is happening. It is just a unsupported rationale to confirm your bias. You may even be right, but its not based on anything but wishful thinking. A bit like forecasting you will win the lottery.

The reason so many are immune to these conversations is that they are gamblers and cannot bear to think their bet won't pay off. Proper investors realise and examine risk. They do look at capital preservation, they are prepared to change their view when new info is released, they do keep an open mind, they do examine risk reward in away that few do here, they do try and project a return in a reasonable timeframe, and of course they never over commit, and at the same time if they invest in a high risk stock like this, it is a tiny percentage of their portfolio.

Silly analogy.

Lets stick with what happens normally. BP buy out/license tech in trial stages when they can see a good chance of it making it to market by further passing the trail criteria as it develops.

This trial is 4 years old and they clearly have not seen enough yet. Where is the breakdown in logic?

I accept they could be talking behind the scenes. How would I know its not, how would you know it is? What I do know that P1a apparently for the last 18 months at least, has proved the concept, and at the same time the SP has collapsed.

You don't think thats odd? Well clearly you don't, you seem to think that normal. Perhaps you think that the lack of milestone payments is another vindication of the tech. Perhaps AVCT bought the DX companies to use their affimer tech and those scientists realised it did not in fact work either. hence no explosion in sales with a resulting divestment of the business at a loss.

I am very aware my analysis could be wrong, completely wrong, but at the same time there are red flags waving that I do not think should be ignored. But that's me, again, clearly not you, you just see it as pathetic. Each to his own

" I'm no genius, even I can understand it! The people they need to get it, get it, That's big pharma. "

OMG, You really think BP don't get it...........

Lets assume BP do get it.. (because your remark is ridiculous), then it begs the question why haven't they bought out AVCT already? But we can't talk about that, obviously because the only conclusion would be something is not quite right yet.

Thanks Rory: "It’s a much more mixed picture. Some patients are doing very well, unfortunately, some haven’t fared so well. It’s still very positive though."

That was my initial take away. it seemed somewhat underwhelming after 4 years.

Clearly as I said its safe and gets the drug to the tumour.

But given it was safe after the original 4 cohorts why another 3? The trial was about safety. Why waste time and resource on treating tumours that are dox resistant for another 18 months?. Why not then go, as planned to P1b?

Thats the problem for me. It does not seem compatible with the mood music of exceeded expectation and all the hyperbole that went with it. And I don't care what any of you say, it does stink of the way they led investors down the path with partial info on the LFT.

Everything for me points to the trial throwing up inconsistent results. As Thorn summarises well, they are playing around now with the delivery mech. to improve efficacy for the next trial, with all the implications for cost over the phases it has to go through.

The "debate" (I use the word in its loosest sense), on ND shows that whatever route AVCT choose to raise money its not cheap. a ND listing is not a free ride. Its bloody expensive, which I hate to break it to you all but it means more dilution. All we are guessing at now is how much dilution.

Remember my scenario where BP makes a 40p offer to save share holders the angst of a 20p SP RI with massive dilution and still no guarantee that the trial would work but they will take that risk and have the funds to see it through over the following years? None of you really can't see that as a possibility?

Oh come on Jane, its the SP not me thats the problem

The only efficacy mentioned was in SGC. Clearly the poster emphasizes the fact that it works in that it gets the payload to the tumour and as a result reduces side affects and in important areas, dramatically.

It seemed apparent to me by its omission, about the efficacy in the long term patients in the trial other than in the use of the word "minor". Does this mean it was not as effective as ordinary dox? or is understated clinical speak for better than ord dox?

Good luck D!

atb

Can anyone help with this please?

what does this mean:

AVA6000 Demonstrates Multiple Minor Responses, a Disease Control Rate

Over 90% and Median PFS Not Reached.

It does not mention efficacy in the conclusion and I am not sure of what the above phrase means in context with ordinary Dox

" I am not an expert in this area though. "

as opposed to.....?

Maybe its some early buying in front of next months end of year update?