Member Info for wyndrum

So, it fell today unwinding from Over Bought territory. So thats ok.

However the recent high was 17p close and the one before that 18p so its important now having failed to break 18p last week, that it does so pretty soon, otherwise I would expect more likely than not further drifts down.

The recent break out and move was pretty strong though, so it was expected to take a breath and now that it has, the upward momentum has more chance than not of resuming. (imo dyor etc etc)

Or, its not as easy to raise money as you/we think? That is a third option. Look how long it took to sell LD, a profit making co., and many here were predicting a much higher sale price. Has Coris been sold yet? Maybe not as that is (or was) a loss making co.

So AVCT may have been working for a year to get the right funds raised at the right price at the right time, but simply have not been able to do so.

I am making this up now just as an example. Maybe 30p was the target (say 25% discount to then 40p SP), but the only deal from the lenders was at 50% discount (20p per share) and AVCT said no, but now that would be roughly 15p per share? incompetent or just really tough?

Remember its the lenders that drive this, not AVCT. they have to take to a large degree, what terms they are offered, which might not be what they or shareholders want at all, but what's the alternative?

You do realise Mike, all holding hands and singing Kum By Ya, will not affect the SP?

Two things: One if there no divergent views there would not be a BB worth reading.

The other thing is the vitriol always comes out when the SP is falling form the "rampers"

The SP has halved since Sept. So for all that good news then and since, it ultimately created a down trend. Thats odd, I think, so most investors try and see why that what looks like an obvious disconnect, might be.

What exactly is wrong with that?

If you read my few posts on here you will see that I still hold and that I think Blue Star will be an ultimate floor on the SP should Rukwa disappoint.

Again, I am not sure what is so contentious about that.

Still posts like yours and others tends to be misplaced fear and/or anger rather than anything else. Enjoy you day, because whatever happens to the HE1 SP it won't be anything to do with me or you or anyone else here, so really why get so caught up in it all? (I presume you are not over committed?)

"No-one trolls these boards every day without a vested interest, "

So, presumably that equally applies to rampers that come on every day claiming that falling SP only strengthens the arguments that all is going well?

and if it does why only mention "trolls" ? (Which lets face it, are only posters who still have reservations about the possibility of a lower SP.)

Of course McM, when you put it like that........

McM,

I agree with much of your post in a much as it is a reasoned idea as to way forward and may well come to pass (I hope for all shareholders it does).

It's just the last bit: " " The incompetence involved with the alternative is unthinkable."

It assumes they have had a choice? Do you think the Heights deal was a good one? No? So why did AVCT take it?

Did you think the RI at 50p was a good deal? No? So why did AVCT take it?

What if AVCT is not in control of the terms?

It reminds me a bit of a self build home when you watch Grand Designs; The builder never gets all the money in one go, but instead is drip fed parts of the loan to meet certain stages before releasing the next chunk. They do that in case the builder runs into unforeseen costs and the economic model disappears. The funder would rather lose a bit if it went tits up than the full build cost and it still went tits up.

I always felt the 50p RI was a begging bowel and that was all AS could get at the time. Its not AVCt who are in control. This is just the beginning of the second part of the very first phase with 2 more, more expensive phases to go.

I don't know what will happen (obviously) but AVCT, for better or worse have a lot of experience in getting funding. I don't think (if it seems a poor result for shareholders), you can assume incompetence.

"Wnybore you are obviously not the full shilling"

Fair enough... by the way, what capital loss are you currently at with AVCT

Will you answer that?... I am guessing not.

Why wouldn't AVCT publicise that then? Why not say our aim is to do exactly what you said? Why is there need for secrecy?

AVCT work for the shareholders. By alerting the market as to how they expect to fund going forward can only potentially make interested parties get a wiggle on to secure the deal. You never know a bidding war might ensue.

This whole "silence means talks going on in the background" has never ever been true. Silence has historically meant no one is interested. AVCT have a track record of being very vague about "interested parties" without any names ever being mentioned and subsequently nothing further being spoken of.

"I can't personally believe CC is planning all the trial spending she is without any means to pay for it"

I think D, that one is not necessarily connected to the other.

Once the train of events is set in motion then A follows B. There is no point having done the lab/animal trials and having had very positive results from that, then not getting a human trial sorted. Whether or not funds are in place is a task for another day.

(Also as we all know the BoD have to talk confidently and make the market assume all is in hand otherwise it really is a bloodbath.)

Given how far we are into the trial it is very apparent that AVCT only raise money to get to their next stage. Either because they do not know what the future results will be, and/or that's all the market would stump up for.

I would be pleasantly surprised if there is any sort of deal in the wings about to be announced, only because if not done already why now? Also CC has said BP won't do anything until phase 2 is completed. So on the face of it it only leaves a RI (almost certainly AIM), and dilution. I think if that is the case it will be very painful for current shareholders because again, it will be funds to run a trial without the results of the trial known. So if BP are not interested until the end of phase 2 I think we are back to the funders/banks of this world (how ever it is structured), in having a window to flip the stock rather than hold it for another 2 years or so. Again the fact that BG sold when they did is imo, a big red flag. They know/think a RI is coming and they have had enough of a loss to date.

Where do you set the RI to get it away? how much do you want to raise? The more money to raise, the lower the issue will have to be.

Remember 50p was a shock "give away" price? look at the price now. Now where would it be set for say, £50-75M?

It hinges now on the financial update next week. But given the silence, lack of coris being off loaded, the lack of any deal/license to date, no milestone payments for years, does to me suggest its more likely a typical AIM RI than any other outcome.

(imo, dyor etc etc)

Its you that keeps me in clover Jane. If you had not posted your latest nonsensical question I would not be posting this answer.

(You are not really the full ticket, are you...)

Or of course if you are, then it is in fact you that "works" for LSE so as to generate posting traffic however off topic it is.

I'm not sure pedro, you would have to find someone else to be rude to, so there's that. Presumably more people would have bought having read here the extravagant claims of a 100 bagger stock. Plus all BB's seem to need (for reasons that pass me by), some sort of Panto vilain(s). This BB is blessed in that regard, So I also surmise it would be less ifu/nteresting for the few/many that get off in just being unpleasent to strangers.

I guess we just have to accept what the valuation is currently.

AS said way back when that when he spoke to potential funders they thought the company was over valued. That went on to explain the 50p raise, but given there was time for the buyers to offload at a 10-15% premium, it looked as thought there was no desire (apparently) to look for anything other than a quick profit and turn. (smart move as it has turned out).

So we are where we are, but multi billion $ valuations are at the moment wild pie in the sky fantasy figures.

I have a feeling reality will surface next week for a few days before it all takes off here again. (dyor etc)

Just saying what I think based on my experience, is most likely.

Well spod, its 74.67 on the RSI with anything above 70 showing overbought, although I prefer 80 as a more reliable figure. We have 18p as a resistance point so I reckon best guess, is an 18p close and then a fall back to around 16p before making enough room for further gains.

But who knows, its all guesswork.

Its getting into overbought territory so its on course next week to take a breather. Which is why most likely its just running out a bit of steam this afternoon.

But that's ok there always has to be retrace before further moves up and it also gives the opportunity for top ups from current shareholders and more confidence for first time buyer to feel that not buying at the previous high leaves immediate room for some quick gain.

(We all know we like to buy any stock and see it in the blue asap rather than buy it and it falls 5 minutes later)

Anyway, short of new news, some sort of fall some time next week is more likely than not. (imo dyor etc)

"That’s AIM for you, totally disconnected"

It really isn't. You believe the value to the stock is still to be realised. However that is on various assumptions. The main one being the science "works" in front of the phase 2 trial that CC has said has to show definitive life saving outcomes before BP will look at it. Thats a ways off for AVA6K and much further off for 6103.

The market is not pricing the stock on a "what if" basis. You refuse to countenance any other scenario than 100% successful results even though historically many drugs fail for various reasons in phase 2 and 3.

On top of that there is no obvious route to financing the time it will take to get these drugs ready for the market to potentially be interested enough in, to put in a bid. It looks like dilution and the question is how much dilution for current shareholders.

So 2 imo, very large reasons why investors are staying away from this presently. To me the market is right, it will only readjust when new market moving news is released. The most likely next news is a RI of some sort. So why buy now?

The market is not as thick as mince, it is not populated only by "traders" who don't have a clue and only care about today. It is populated by like minded people to yourself and others here, who have taken along term view and seen their capital decimated. So who was right? the "market" in waiting for news that reduces risk, or you based on your super assumptive analysis, given the objective is to make money?

"Our previous CEO overpromised and underdelivered. I believe Christina is the opposite. "

Flip, any examples where she has overdelivered so far?

The Sp will always fall after an announcement/update.

Thats because there is no financial pathway ever committed to by avct. The market hopes that updates yesterday (that they know have nothing to do with the financials), still, might throw off a remark or something reassuring about future finances. But of course they never do. Then you do get TU's and the news is always either opaque or the announcement of a RI.

The RI's tend to come along every 12-15 months. All the time there is uncertainty the market will mark down the stock. Big couple of weeks coming.

The other thing that gets overlooked here, is that there are now loads of stocks doing well and it becomes, (for a serious investor), harder and harder to justify hanging on this for ever Jam tomorrow return. (This is the only red stock I have in my portfolio. for instance.) As an example and its not a cross ramp I bought close Bros on the bell this morning. I am already in profit. Its not going to 10 bag but it will likely appreciate and chuck out dividends to boot.

Its just an example where, rather than sit on another 5% down day that money might be better served elsewhere. I can't be the only one who's patience is now worn thin/out?

"The biggest downside risk is excessive dilution over the next twelve months."

No its not. The biggest risk is in fact, administration.

Based on what has been said I don't think that is the most likely outcome but I do see a RI in the 20's or lower and then an opportune buy out around the 40's as perfectly possible.

AVCT have dug a hole. The Heights repayment can be continued with stock, that's fine, but it hinders SP appreciation, and at some time in the next 3-9 months new funding has to come from somewhere, but at what price?

The attention now falls on on May 29th. I am as sure as I can be in making this guess, that funding will come up in the RNS. How it is worded is likely to define the future for current shareholders in AVCT. (imo dyor)

SG, 423/424p looks pretty key.....

Nice to break and hold above there.