Member Info for WolfofWarks

I’ve just had an ASOS delivery that I placed last night. I suppose it’s getting fresh stock to the warehouses.

The point is it’s a shortage, not a draught which the media would have you believe. The CEO of Iceland was on Question Time on Thursday and bearing in mind they are having problems in the frozen side as well they are still getting 75% of their deliveries.

My father in law retired a couple of years ago from a HGV career and his phone hasn’t stopped. My wife was telling me when she was younger she used to go on trips with him in the cab but it’s all cameras and tacho monitoring now, sh*t service stops, long hours, reducing pay, increased idle time, roadworks, etc, etc. Pretty much a miserable existence unless you love driving.

No. I couldn’t say with any certainty who is unaffected. I know from my own anecdotal evidence though who is affected and more specifically in the mainstream £40-£60k range. So Mercedes, BMW, Audi, JLR, etc, all long long times, little if any dealer stock available.

So I've spent this money having a look and registering for Coinbase Pro so I can place limit orders and do some more in depth technical analysis.

I've got to say I am a bit disappointed with it. The longest time frame on the charts is one day, only two options on EMA, no tools like RSI, MACD, and most annoyingly no watchlist. I've only got BTC and Tezos so have to scroll done the markets list to view the price every time.

This you have to deposit a minimum of £1,000 if you are paying direct to the pro account. So to top up on this dip I've had to pay into the normal CB account and then transfer into Pro which is a right faff.

Decent saving on fees to be had though from using the regular app which is basically dipping it's hand in your pocket at every opportunity.

I did a 'beep beep this vehicle is reversing'.

"Why is there a 'quiet period' and where does the company mention this? Thanks"
There is a underlying assumption in the financial world that the participant understands how it works.

I think the CEO doing videos and explaining every move is a relatively new concept bourn about by a) recent large scale retail participation and b) social media.

I'm in stocks like SNG & 888 where you never hear from the management other than what is required from a regulatory perspective.

They also employ young people who do not have to be paid the NLW.

Bladey

I think that might just be the most interesting post I’ve ever read on here. I follow a lot of the Chartists like Wyndrum on here with great interest.

It’s not something I gave great credence to at first as I always thought of myself as a fundamentals investor, sometimes a gambler when I’m taking a punt on something. But have come to realise that you need as many tools in your armoury as possible.

I’m slowly using moving averages, RSI, MACD, etc, to try and time my entry and exit points better.

Hi Delacy

PW said in one of his latest interviews that we have three levers.

1) sell btc
2) more shares
3) more borrowing

Put simply we’ll have to sell btc regularly as continuous expansion will require more and more working capital which will be in usd/cad/gbp. We’ll have to covert some into fiat otherwise we have to pull the other two levers.

Realistically I don’t think he can go back to the markets in the short to medium term so that would leave leveraging more debt, which puts us at risk when btc drops, ie. when the balance sheet is weak and is dependant on continual open lines of credit happy to lend in the crypto space.

The only chart you really need is the excess deaths over and above the normal rate:

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

This clearly shows the reduction in excess deaths since the vaccine was introduced and the increase to be expected once we re-opened but no where near the first and second waves pre vaccine.

Look at the age of the people who are on ventilators now compared to the peak.

Even if they don’t degrade I would have thought they would become technologically obsolete as better more efficient machines come onto the market.

I would expect planning and buying new machines to be a continuous process.

From what I’ve seen from my own personal work experiences we are going to pan the lot of them this quarter. The whole competition cannot fulfil orders in a timely fashion and the stock levels at dealers are virtually non-existent.

I’d wager quite comfortably this time next year the PE will still be high but under 100 and no where near the 1700 it was twelve months ago. Two new factories to come online as well.

Chip shortage hasn’t affected Tesla - delivery 4-6 weeks. I placed an order for an Audi yesterday with a delivery ETA of Mar-22. BMW & Mercedes are quoting Jan-Mar 22.

Even if people don’t want a Tesla if they want a brand new car quick that’s factory made we are pretty much the only option.

Other manufacturers are also struggling to provide the optional extras - enhanced bluetooth, upgraded stereos being chopped due to the semi conductor shortage.

I personally think the stock was overheated along with the other COVID plays (Ocado, etc) and will chop down my holding this week in anticipation of a cheaper buy in after results. I think there is nothing out there but head winds at the moment and if you look at what’s happened to ASOS the haircut was brutal.

I’ve actually started building a position over there so if there is anything in the BOO results I don’t like I might top up there.

What’s becoming clear is this is becoming a longer and longer term play and the smart trading money got out 350p+.

Anywhere near 16p and the Hoover comes out.

Covid (we had flu, never this extreme reaction)
Food shortage
Gas shortage
Fuel shortage

Musicman - three of those four points are caused by the HGV driver shortage which itself is the byproduct of post covid pent up demand, tax policy (IR35) and exaggerated by the post brexit immigration policy.

It’s very much real.

Plus the reason we don’t have so much of a fuss about flu is we have a vaccine for people over 65 and the vulnerable.

Companies that have rolled out the vaccine large scale have been able to reopen and the death rate has plummeted. Plus the vaccines have held up against the variants extremely well.

Have a look at the ongoing curbs in Australia if you want to see an example of what happens when a large developed economy doesn’t have large scale vaccine adoption.

Hi Hexam -nthere a $10m operating lease (under right of use assets) on the balance sheet from the last set of accounts for machines which I think were purchased last year.

Assuming we have access to similar credit lines again it seems like a no brainier to me.

So we’ve got Kallu, the seasoned investor who has successfully managed his portfolio through three recessions, follows the mantra of Charlie Munger, applies his five filters to every investment.

Yet only appears to have one investment … and wait for it …. spends more time on here than with his fellow ARB investors.

An experienced investor with no diversification who believes that online is finished and bricks and mortar retail is the future.

Pull the other one.

Hi Hexam - my assumption is like previously all new machines will be on operating leases rather than fronting the cash.

The building could also be sold and leased back to out more working capital into the business. Probably a better use for the cash than sitting in a large long term asset that doesn’t generate any revenue.

Because they can’t control it. It creates great wealth and they are communists who think everything should be earned for the common good.

To put all this drama into context the closing SP today is the same as 12th September ….

On a share like this while we like to ‘buy the dip’ it’s worthwhile learning to ‘sell the spike’ as well.