Member Info for WolfofWarks

If Elon can build a space rocket and a city underground tunnel system I’m sure he can handle a couple of cars …

Dan I get you. Ocado massively rode the pandemic wave and hit £28 at its peak, since retracing back long before the fire etc.

I think we’ve these big online players there is a pull bag from the pandemic advancement and now a more longer term trend is re-establishing itself and they be a more gradual increase.

By ABF’s own admission Primark’s sales has a large element of pent up demand and they heavily exposed to any pandemic affects that reduce footfall. I’d say short term outlook depends on how pandemic is handled. Do we just get in with it or start lockdowns, circuit breakers, etc, to protect the NHS.

The biggest threat to Shein will end up the Chinese government itself no doubt.

The seccuessful Chinese firms are being hammered by them at the moment.

Creating new regs at the drop of a hat. A couple of weeks ago they suddenly decided that no Chinese companies involved in educational supplies are allowed to make a profit.

Apple had a four for one split last year as well.

It’s a fine balance because whatever they do they cannot detriment pension saving, general saving or anything that that affects inward investment or the capital markets. It’s a fine balance.

‘Investors presentation’

I thought the investors yesterday was very good and might held explain the tick up today.

I’ve started a position here today which I’m intending to build on nicely.

“ ASOS is down around the same % - perhaps there's something 'out there' that has implications for those who operate almost solely online. ”
Yeah Ocado have been dropping back as well. Valuations most likely frothy and a bit of a pull back is probably a good think in the long run.

I’ve started building a position in ASOS today. The pullback there from the recent high is extraordinary.

Their trading statement exposes how vulnerable they are not just to future lockdowns but any kind of covid related disruption - self isolation, pingdemic, etc, due to the resulting reduced footfall.

Don’t forget there is a massive global semi conductor shortage so I wouldn’t hang your hat on any dates particularly.

In the recent Weber IPO they priced the offering quite cheap which meant everyone piled in and the price shot up before settling back down at $15.

I think whatever the IPO is priced at the shares will shortly settle down to their perceived value so it’s probably largely academic to an extent.

Plus Kallu it’s quite clear that you are ABFinvestor so quit pretending it’s some random ….

Kallu - during economic downturns the poorest always get hit the hardest. So the mid market have reduced spending and take a bit of a knock where as the poorest get wiped out?

ABF might well be a good company but the chart doesn’t lie. Since the peak in 2015 the SP has been in decline. I expect Primark to be doing very well at the moment as we are in its prefect economic condition. But once we start recovering and the poorest have an increase in discretionary income they will spend money aspirationally and Primark will be one of the brands that get left behind, especially with no online avenue like all its competitors. Those £3.5bn in lease obligations won’t look too clever then eh?

Is the price not set by the underwriter and the demand for the initial subscription or is this different because it’s ADS?

I’m just thinking about the recent Coinbase and Robinhood IPOs where the price wasn’t revealed until later in the trading day once they had filled the subscription book.

Hi Musicman - What's your tactics with regards to which coins you hold? I've been playing around on coinbase but I'm finding it that simplified that I'm not entirely sure that I understand what some of them do and am finding it difficult to try and trade my way up as I'm not sure on spotting the opportunities of when to jump in.

Hasn't helped that we've dived this last week or so.

Currently holding Tezos & BTC.

Hopefully they will explain what they propose to do to mitigate risk when the next pandemic style event occurs so they don't have to shut the doors and lose out on .... what was it .... £2bn turnover?

I don't know how fluid an IPO could be but the obvious time to try and get it over the line would be during a decent run up in btc. So anytime mid-July up to last week would have been ideal, but this week not so much.

Kallu - I don’t follow anyone and make my own decisions. I sort of follow charts, can read a profit and loss and balance sheet, am widely read and have over twenty years experience in finance.

The only real convention I follow it that I’m fully diversified not only in terms of sectors but also countries.

By B&M’s own admissions they’ve hold onto many companies too long and have a stubbornness when it comes to divesting. No doubt you’re widely read like some kind of student or academic but you’re basic thesis lacks common sense. This entrenched view that bricks and mortar are the future of retail because rents are cheaper while all the evidence points to the exact opposite happening in a trend over what must be well over ten years. Online advanced even further thanks to the pandemic and may fall back a tad but it’s going nowhere and the trajectory is still very much upward.

ABF and their wafer thin margins have plenty of challenges themselves like materials inflation and now they have to pay all those shop staff additional employers NI.

I’m not sure the 12% even exists which I must admit puts my mind at ease and seems far more commercially viable.