RE: Not a sale 229 Nov 2014 12:11
when this first arose a couple of weeks ago I admit I had concerns because I didn't have a full understanding of all of the moving parts to form an opinion, however having spent some time analysing this over the last few weeks there are distinct differences between OPAY and QPP.
1. Lenhoff has confirmed his intent to repay loan
2. Lenhoff has 4mn shares plus some 2mn+ options due to vest by mid 2016 - so his vested interest is in a strong share price, if share price hits £6 ( which is v doable as a analyst consensus) then his worth is £36m compare that to the £4m loan - clear his interests are aligned to those of shareholders.
3. OPAY has significant cash, excellent margins, business model where additional sales flow through to bottom line, massive share in a growing market
4. If EFH did sell the shares then they are well under water right now and that only gets worse if and when they have to re-buy them in the market - in fact £1.5mn shares is equal to the daily volume on OPAY
5. Lenhoff would have had a massive tax bill on the shares awarded, due to way tax works that liability is payable when shares vest - therefore I think a large portion of this transaction is probably to fund that tax liability on the £4mn shares awarded but without having to sell shares and miss out on the upside. That is a big vote of confidence in the future of the company and its sp by Lenhoff.
6. The company is debt free and cash positive with growing profits and customer base of blue-chip partners with a global business model.
7. most likely outcome here is IMHO is that OPAY will become a target for takeover - which is where I think Lenhoff has mentioned in the past and indeed makes him a very wealthy man
8. Recent tie ups with folks like Apple, Visa, Masercard all point towards an intellectual property in OPAY that is worth a premium and not easily replicated - only a matter of time before someone snaps that up for what long term will seem like the buy of the century.
9. Just look at how Black Friday has not only gone global but is increasingly digital - perfect opportunity for the likes of OPAY to grow revenues exponentially - the world is changing and these guys are positioned to capitalise on it.
So read it as you will but 1.5mn shares is insignificant in the big picture of things and Lenhoff stands to gain shed loads if the share price continues to rise. That is very different to QPP scenario