Member Info for wolfhound

@buller, I agree, nice steady rise over the last qtr and there have been some chunky buys - yet very little in the way of updates - a good sign imho

Interesting, so OPAY sits at the following discounts : 1) 18% below where it is buying Skrill - PE of 13 2) 30-60% below its peers in UK 3) 74% below its historic trend of PE 4) 140% below current aqn multiples by PayPal 5) 200%+ below where a PayPal/rival might acquire post FTSE 250 listing I expect we will see these discounts close rapidly post broker updates and deal progression over next 3 weeks.

@MultiMktInvest - many thanks very insightful. @PananmaPete - looks like there may well be something to your earlier assessment of a potential takeout before FTSE 250 listing seems someone with influence has been spreading Chinese rumours - worthy of a Gordon Gekko takeover approach...lol at these forward PE levels I think we could all be sitting on a 3- 4 bagger here GLA :)

oops here is the link to motley fool article. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/where-value-optimal-payments-plc-124636789.html

Has anyone seen any projections for 2016 Ebitda for enlarged group ? My back of a fag packet suggests £140mn EBITDA for 2016 and using yesterday Paypal announcement on Xoom of 25.7 2016 PE gives a enterprise value to enlarged group of £3.6bn or £8.23 a share. Even if I am 20% off that is still £6.50+ ---- now wouldn't that be nice :) BTW - seems some "analysts" have a very odd way of working out PE - this guy at motley fool seems to calc a PE of 24 at current SP - correct me if I am wrong here but isn't that OPAY standalone projected 2016 EBITDA of £48m and not the enlarged group ? ( fair enough technically Skrill aqn is not yet complete but given significance I think he should say that he has excluded skrill completely but not the shares issued to fund it - if the so called experts can't get it right what hope joe public !! ) If the above has been replicated elsewhere no wonder share price has been drifting down since rights issue based off misleading/not complete analysis - school boy errors or disingenuous I will let you decide?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCW9Hey6IVY

multiples of current sp :) good spot - v nice 20% premium to their current sp. I see the global footprint was mentioned - step up OPAY. Once the FSA change of control comes through on Skrill I expect any number of suitors to come calling to OPAY - they will no doubt approach the 4-5 big institutions discreetly first , if they are not doing so already. current sp does not reflect premium that should be attached to the enlarged group given this sector is red hot - we are at levels pre-acqn announcement. - savvy investors should be filling their boots at these levels - OPAY will be just too attractive to the likes of PayPal, Google, Apple who all have the war chest to take it out.

Contained in the RNS of 1 June - extract below - we are in the home stretch just waiting on FSA "In respect of the change of controller approvals from the FCA, the notification to the FCA has now been completed and the FCA has confirmed that, unless it exercises its statutory right to interrupt the consideration period, a decision on the application will be made no later than 30 July 2015. Completion of the Acquisition will take place shortly after FCA change of controller approval is received."

See RNS on 1 June - all good, OPAY have to wait on FSA - that is regulation for you, it needs to run its course, that will be all - done and dusted by 30th of this month- and like the rights issue watch sp snap back. There has been no volume since completion of rights issue to talk of, this is nothing more than MM playing with retail investors who are easily prey - remember no trades no commissions - no volume says big boys are staying put - I would take my lead from them.

not just possible but highly probable and I don't think it will be that far away from 7th July PayPal will have indicative pricing and the cheapness of enlarged OPAY ( as #2 in market) will quickly start to dawn on US funds active in this space rather than just UK fund investors bias as is presently the case more exciting however is where the SP will be in a few yrs - vertical IMHO

PayPal spin-off project SP of $43 (25x diluted EP) http://www.bidnessetc.com/46749-ebay-inc-ebay-spinoff-paypal-valued-at-43-per-share-at-bernstein/

interesting thought and you may well be proven right. enlarged OPAY is 50% owned by a small number of institutions which could facilitate such a transaction/takeover Co-incidentally PayPal spins out on the 17th July - OPAY as #2 and 1/10 size will have a benchmark, perhaps that combined with the closing of Skrill might be the point at which someone pounces with a price and hopefully a very healthy premium. If I was to guess I would say £4 -£4.50 GLA

IMHO - Buyers waiting on FCA approval so Skrill deal can close - s/b before end July. Probably seeing the difference in PE and want i's dotted t's crossed before pulling trigger. Then wave two of forced buyers on FTSE250 announcement ( trackers/index replicators). Next month will tell alot 23 Aug - Interim results statement - key date

@rHatton - many thanks - although I think you mean historic PE not projected PE 2014 EBITDA for enlarged group is $175m ( £110m) = True PE10 although published as PE 15.7 (until deal closed) http://www.optimalpayments.com/sites/default/files/attachments/pdf/analyst_presentation.pdf slide 20/21) I am assuming 25% p.a. growth (market to double by 2017 ( ewallet transactions to increase 5 fold) - slide 35 2015 = £110m +25% growth =£ 137m 2016 = £137 +25% growth = £171m ( before cost saving synergies and one-off costs - £8m) There is cheap ....and then there is downright steal :) GLA

Thought - It appears to me that the current reported PE (15.8) is grossly overstated as it is based on OPAY alone and not the revised group earning and obviously will not be restated until the Skrill aqn is complete in the next 4-6 weeks (max). Once complete then estimated 2016 earnings will be on enlarged group and assuming historical growth I estimated those to be about £172mn for 2016. that would give a true current PE of 6.4 - very cheap. I think once the big boys catch onto this they will be buying heavy, for now it is thread water and wait for the wave to arrive.

IMHO we are just waiting for refuelling in the form of a few big institutional buys at these levels as they say we are on the launchpad at "T minus" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsHljHRM67c

could be, at these levels ( close to rights issue announcement) I suspect we might even see the morning star - lets see what tomorrow brings

yep, IMHO it was overdone, drop in SP from late yesterday seems to coincide with PTEC share issuance to fund PLUS 500 acqn and also market sentiment of where BET will find future growth - neither of which IMHO are really relevant to OPAY. Interestingly Barclays are only pricing in 8% upside on BET but 80% on OPAY - guess we know where they see the growth.

RNS re credit rating - this is another positive announcement on moving the deal forward and will also tick the investment criteria box with a lot of institutional investors - IMHO.

Dell, tomorrow is the first day in the 100 day march north !!