Member Info for wolfhound

through two layers of resistance in one day - I think we can safely say we are in breakout !! What say you Techni ? I would imagine a lot of auto sells will get filled at these levels and funds will have to scramble Tuesday to get back in or perhaps after close - next resistance ? Cheers Micheboo - have a great weekend.

@BB- have a listen to podcast link kindly posted by techni on his last post of yesterday. From memory 3:08 ( through) next is 3:20 and i cant remember the next but something like 3:57.... all in the podcast

It would be a nice start, have been in since 1.33 and top ups so can have no complaints - GLA

not in just using it as my fixed point reference to extrapolate forward SP on OPAY - given the similarities it indicates we should now be on the upward trajectory pattern of the breakout and hit the 75% increase inside 6 months - it there is a repeat

more a case of history repeating ? The chart patterns of Cine from 30 Dec 2013 through to market correction in Oct 2014 are eerily similar in profile to OPAY from mid march 2015 to market correction in Aug 2015 - if you look at them side by side - the fundamentals are also strangely similar - acquire competitor, rights issue, sp dips, upper resistance level, breakout after market correction............

JD - not sure anyone can give a definitive answer but it is in two stages i.e. entry on main market followed by qtrly decision of inclusion in Index. The former can happen at any time, and a bit like the FCA approval it takes as long as it takes but it will come - OPAY have track record and healthy Balancesheet and good management team. The latter can only happen on set dates - qtrly usually around the 20th of the month ( third Wednesday when futures and options expire). I think I read somewhere that they needed to on market for 20 days before you can be considered for inclusion - somewhere in the LSE rulebook. My guess is OPAY will go into main market in next week then we will make FTSE 250 deadline for Sept - if not then it will be Dec 21st inclusion in FTSE 250 - either way I expect move to main market to happen pretty imminently. Once that happens the FTSE 250 entry will start to be reflected in price as it will be a given. Bear in mind the new FD was brought in to manage that process , having gone through it already and knows the score and have the contacts - he is a known entity to LSE who will do the approval. We have also had FCA approval and now they are probably just waiting for people to return to desks from summer hols to sign off. GLA

Can't jinx the inevitable Techni - I think now the market correction seems to be OOTW it will be onwards and upwards. Have a look at Cine in 2014 - v similar graph and circumstances to OPAY - it took off after the market correction in OCT 2014 - fast forward 2015 and correction is Aug. Would be interested in your technical graph overlay view

...lift off, 310 looks like a reasonable target if we get another good day on dow.

I think we shall see that happen this week and possibly kick on above 300. OPAY is recovering faster than the wider market so as buyers flock back they will want to buy into quality with potential and OPAY ticks boxes.

Hi Techi - I think China is the issue and there it is simply that they have been selling products to unsophisticated investors who probably shouldn't be in the market anyway. Here is the odd thing with China - institutional investors can't sell for 6 months, so positions move to banking book and held at cost - not MTM. In the meantime retail investors panic ( see story where they marched head of exchange down to cop shop only for him to be released without charge - pure emotion stuff). Probably the Chinese govt giving them a harsh lesson in capitalism and govt control and rein in their expectations. As you noted - In the US fundamentally nothing has changed - except that with what is going on globally a rate rise is now pretty much something to consider in 2016 - kick can down road - oil is cheap that always fuels us growth. Big boys will be back from holiday in a week or so and normality will return, another choppy summer and another reason to justify their bonus payouts because they are the calm heads. All in I see this as a bout of summer jitters just to remind people to manage their expectations - if I was a conspiracy theorist I would say it is all being stage managed.

agreed this is nothing more than a repeat of last October, markets bounced back pretty quickly. The US is fixated on rate increase and hanging on every word from Yellen, plus traditionally Aug is the month where the senior folks go on holiday and leave the junior behind to mind the shop - they are told don't screw up when I am gone so tend to panic at slightest news for fear of a rollicking on boss return. China's de-facto currency devaluation has probably put a hold on any rate rise for the immediate future - so can will be kicked down the road and markets will rebound into the last qtr. Meanwhile back at OPAY we have update due Wednesday, FTSE250 entry looming. OPAY is already heavily discounted to peers so SP should weather any turmoil significantly better than most, not that this will necessarily stop MM using the market noise to pick up more shares for their buddies at steal of the century prices. Our biggest risk right now is a predator using the market upheaval to make a bid at levels significantly below OPAY true value. roll on Wednesday

Sign of mature and informed investors who know this stock true value and not worried about MM(i.e Thin volumes) ramping down price to pick up cheap stocks by trying to hit auto stop losses. Hold fast results and update next week will sort out sp

Thanks GS - apologies 4 delayed response - travelling and wifi is lousy. Sounds like we are having an intetesting day :) Agreed -Nasdaq is where this stock needs to be

I think a positive update on 26th will be the catalyst for a breakout- if for no other reason then at these levels OPAY is clearly too cheap in a consolidating market. It was reported on another board that Wirepay have announced at qtrly investor update that they have changed their acquisition strategy away from acquiring a small US player to targeting a "large European target" - which does limit the field to one or two targets IMO. That said OPAY SP is on a PE of 11.8 on 2016E - which we all know is too cheap and possibly vulnerable. If we take Zoom acquisition as the benchmark at PE of 27.5 - then realistically OPAY needs to be back at PE of 20 before any credible bid could be made that would be acceptable to ii or else they will likely hold fast for OPAY/Skrill to just deliver and grow and be re-rated. Likewise no bidder will want to be seen to pay 250%+ times MV on a bid - 15-20% premium to the market would be more preferable - so a rise up through a re-rating and FTSE250 entry is IMHO the most likely scenario once there is a positive update on the 26th re integration and trading update. In the case of Wirepay a PE acq at 27.5 would still well shy of their own lofty PE of 38.5 so earnings accretive and would grow their business by about double. Interestingly their qtrly profits £ 22.4m annualised to £90 m - so less than the 2016E of enlarged OPAY yet they have a MV of €4.4bn /£ 3bn to OPAY £1.3 bn Strap in it is going to be a very interesting next few months - GLA

Wise words Techni & GSmiley I have learned to my cost down through the years and after many missed profit taking opportunities that you need to mix the philosophies to maximise the gains ;) Here's to the 26th and further gains !! GLA

GSmiley - agreed a change in broker with move to FTSE is bit like the change in FD in December for track record purposes - horses for courses philosophy. Techni - Lets just hope that trend is our friend - your chart seems to indicate we are on track I think the institutional buyers will also want the SP to rocket coming up to Y/E as that will play into their annual performance league tables nicely.

....and now to more weighty matters....lol !! Based on my math broker target is estimating 2016 Earnings of £105-£110mn and a re- rating to 20 times PE for £4.50 price target. Historically broker targets have proven very reliable indicators of future price direction forcing continued re-ratings probably in no small part to Joel & BOD managing expectations by under promising and over delivering. Comparing to PTEC which is now on a PE of 40 - and you see what I mean about managing expectations. The FTSE250 average PE is about 22.5 and I with 25% CAGR Opay will be one of the fastest growing so I could see the 20xPE rating moving higher - maybe nearer 30 - giving a new target SP of £6.75 once synergies of deal start to kick in. A positive update on the 26th in terms interims and synergies to 2016 forecasted earnings could have a very material impact on SP. I suspect with FTSE 250 move we will also see a change in broker - Cancord Genuity have been pretty quiet/pedestrian on issuing target SP since deal was announced in March - nose must be out of joint. The lead broker needs to be driving the discussion around re-rating of the PE multiple in the market and I am guessing that is why the SP at present is so heavily discounted - broker not championing it. Sooner the move to FTSE250 is announced and new broker the better.

here is a useful snipped from Barclay's I picked up on another board "We see this as an opportunity with substantial upside potential supported by a three-year forecast EPS CAGR of 25%, but also a reduction of its risk profile, due to client/ service diversification and a Main Market listing (and inclusion in FTSE250 will follow), which should reduce its valuation discount. With the approval out of the way we expect that the stock can start its anticipated re-rating from the current 11.5x pro-forma 2016 PE. We therefore reiterate our Overweight with a price target of 450p, based on 20x FY16 PE." .... I prefer to call it "rightsized" rather than overweight :~) GLA

Re MA - v good observation re 14 Nov falling out Techni - I had overlooked that nugget Looking at afresh the 200WMA is showing a much steeper trajectory in the last month relative to the 200SMA

.....blue horseshoe loves ....... MM must be getting desperate to fill a large ii order and not getting enough bites - time to roll out the drivel - given completion and trading statement update and FTSE250 around the corner makes me smell a sense of desperation Timing is a bit suss............This is old hat stuff from 2014 -- China officials made big headlines trying to crack down on illegal gambling and prostitution - some of which has been liked to party members etc..... To put it in perspective the internet in China is v limited and controlled.....google, facebook etc... are just examples Sort of reminds me the dip in SP during Greek crisis - any excuse to talk it down however tenuous only for it to bounce again