Member Info for wolfhound

Agreed, Good volumes again this morning - interesting to see what happens between now and AGM

Good to see just waiting on FCA for final approval - 30 Jul at the latest if not before :)

another big buy today (1%) following on from 18 May purchase - also interesting that designated Chairman has stepped away ...hmmmmmmmm

This is an interesting link to Merrill Lynch model value of PayPal http://www.bidnessetc.com/43503-ebay-inc-all-set-for-paypal-spinoff-merrill-lynch/ Merrill Lynch’s pro forma PayPal model assumes that PayPal will generate 2015 and 2016 revenue of $9 billion and $10.5 billion, respectively. The firm's model predicts 2015 and 2016 PayPal year-over-year (YoY) revenue growth of 13% and 16%, respectively; it expects 2015 and 2016 earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) margin of 27.2% and 27.7%, respectively. Using a 13x enterprise value to EBITDA, the firm values PayPal at $34 per eBay share, which would represent a 23x price to earnings (P/E) multiple on its 2016 estimates. Applying that same model to OPAY ( 1/10th size so will discount P?E ration to say 80% of Paypal's - arbitrary I know but reasonable none the less) Edison research noted in its report on Skrill deal : "On initial calculations, the combined group looks set to grow revenues to $800m and EBITDA margins to 30% by FY16 as cost synergies are realised" => $240mn. Using a P/E ratio of 80% of PayPal =18.6 P/E ratio = £2.4bn MV adjusted for debt or equivalent to £ 5.70 per share. Barclays and Numis at £4.50 must be working to much lower PE ratios. The spin out of PayPal in Qtr 3 will IMHO have major implications for valuations in the whole payment sector and we could have very positive connotations for OPAY SP.

Very nice breakout forming - has shot through the 200DAMAVG as well as 50day with 50 day now crossing the 200 - looks like a clear breakout with sustained momentum. Historically this has seen a 50% rise in SP

http://www.sharepickers.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/OptimalPayments.png

@JD - the shorts were a bit of a red herring IMHO , they were covered by long rights as is typical in an arbitrage play. Current SP reflects nothing more than the £461m cash raised ( £680+461 = £1.2bn MV), SP bounce will come as Skrill acqn closes followed by and FTSE filing - IMHO OPAY is 35-50% below true value at present. Once tracker funds start buying we could see even bigger rises ..

many thanks

@Fred101 - fair point, just wanted to make sure I had the most up to date source of info, either way the shorts as part of rights issue arbitrage looks to have unwound.

@chrismeevans - FCA list of 7/5/15 is showing 0.00% shorts for OPAY- is there a more up to date list ?

Here is a link to Edison research report and their estimate of timelines and combined entity http://www.investing.com/analysis/optimal-payments-250764 you can download pdf report

People are usually conservative with timelines on these for obvious reasons, nothing there to say it couldn't complete quicker especially as they are only dealing with one shareholder - besides Qtr 3 begins in 8/9 weeks which is not v long. Once takeover is complete then I expect FTSE listing to happen pretty quick.thereafter.

agreed, rump got away very nicely as well at a v good price - strong support.

@shuvup - if this is a right arb then my money is that the short will close before conversion of the rights on the 5th to fully paid up shares - as to size being 4%, at present I believe that is on the old shareholding of 163m - see latest RNS re shareholding for notification purposes so probably closer to 1.5% of the enlarged shareholding. Also the longs right position is on a separate ticker OPAN ( not OPAY) until the 5th when it disappears - OPAN holding only needs disclosing if above 3% of rights so we may be just seeing one side one side of the coin when seeing shorts at present during the rights issue.

@mikeboy.....might the shorter have used the cash to buy some very cheap rights at the 90p level . hence not really as short as they might appear....... that would be the classic arbitrage strategy

@firestars - pleasure and GL. Current SP does seem to suit the underwriters agenda rather than the investor - zero deal premium incorporated, a few weeks and that technicality should right itself.

@firestars - either should give you the same result. decision on whether to finance elsewhere depends upon your risk appetite and ability to carry funding. If you do decide to sell you should consider the timing of sale between now and the deadline - current SP is trading only just above where the deal was announced ( off 30%ish) which my gut says is due to being a buyers market as many people are having to sell a portion of their holding to fund rights - I think once complete we should hopefully see a nice bounce. GLA GL

Optimal Payments Awarded Best Payments Company at Inaugural EGR North America Awards - held in San Francisco http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/optimal-payments-awarded-best-payments-company-at-inaugural-egr-north-america-awards-500810281.html

@ becky 510 - my guess - Capital Gains Tax - unless you bought original OPAY shares at less than £1.16 tail swallowing is the way to go if you have a large holding.

@hammy007, you will have bought after the 16th at which point OPAY were trading ex-rights which is why you paid 2.98 which is the ex rights price( i.e. did not have rights attached to the shares) - if you had bought by COB on the 16th then you would have bought cum rights but you would have been buying at closer to £5 per share and on the 17th this would have split into 1 OPAY share and 1.67 OPAN shares.. you can confirm same by looking on your broker account - you will most likely be holding OPAY ( Fully paid Optimal shares) but you will not be holding any OPAN ( Rights that are Nil Paid). If that is the case then there is no impact to you and nothing for you to do