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MM have obviously been building a holding for someone - they had these on the books picking them up from retail investors - someone jumping in big ahead of RNS IMHO

GSmiley - I am with you on that IMHO Opay is a bit like a maiden filly on her first outing with the FCA approval being the finishing line - once it is crossed then interest will come from many quarters and price will rise significantly. Volumes have been very thin in the last 3 weeks - institutions having already loaded up - with FCA approval logically no existing holder should be selling at under £3.50 ( lowest of the 3 broker quotes) - a new buyer will have to pay if they want to get in on the action. You very eloquently listed all the reasons why they might want to do that and why a 30% premium to SP seems achievable short term - with true potential being multiples if someone wants to acquire. IMHO - any dip post rally on approval will be short lived - I suspect there is pent up demand given the heavy discounted price that can see OPAY will at some point become a takeover target and in the interim the Skrill consolidation will nicely rachet up the price as synergies are realised.

GSmiley - many thanks Roll on 290 :)

Now we are into the 270's and edging close to FCA approval - what say the charts on the upper resistance levels ?

you decide - GLA and have great weekend !! If were a large PE firm ( or two) that knew the payment space well and I just came into a ball of cash ...oh say €720mn - happy days just had my liquidity event to claim my performance fee from my investor - 20% .....$$$$ ker-ching !!! In farness I made them a ton What to do next - do I return the cash to my investors- do I hell - where is the money in that !! I do what I always do... I find a company with great growth potential, in an area I know and have track record in, that has a 1st class and savvy management team and ideally it is trading at a discount to its peers.... and one where I can see my exit strategy......now let me see......ahhh haaaaa. found it !! Next week will be interesting at these levels

Have a look at Wirecard - looks extremely similar to the enlarged OPAY in terms of size and scope ( it is already linked into Skrill) - I fear that at this SP OPAY is very much open to an opportunistic bid ( 2016E PE x10.7) as it would be earnings accretive straight away to those on multiples of this PE ratio Wirecard (ETR:WDI) traded up 2.53% on 16 July, hitting EUR 39.08. A total of 1.05 million shares of the company’s stock traded hands. This is up from average of 551,550 shares. Wirecard has a 52 week low of EUR 25.00 and a 52 week high of EUR 42.67. The company has a market cap of 4.76B GBP and a P/E ratio of 41.86. And apparently CEO has ambitions to grow via acquisition : http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/08/idUSFWN0X408E20150408

Exactly GSmiley - and well done on calling bottom with top up trade - legend ! Just to re-iterate this is purely about change of control - nothing else. FCA will want to ensure new owners/controllers of enlarged OPAY are "fit and proper" - the new owners are of course all the large institutions ( old mutual, franklin T, Columbia Threadneedle, CVC, etc.....) - all regulated funds in their own right - the FCA will obviously take considerable comfort from the fact that they or another regulator already oversee the new owners - therefore by extension they already approve of the owners and therefore the change of control - common sense really. The primary reason the change of control rule exists in payments is to prevent shady organisations getting their grubby mits on a route into the payments system and using it as a front ( mafia, triad, drug cartels, etc....) IMHO the FCA change of control review has all been a bit of a smokescreen - anyone who has ever faced off to FCA ( or any regulator) knows that they work to their deadlines - they rarely if ever publish before that deadline - that would set unnecessary precedents for future reviews - that will be foremost in the mind-set of a regulator. If they have 60 days then they will use 60 days. I expect we will continue to see positive rises daily as we are now in T minus 9 to FCA deadline of 30th July. GLA

Indeed, seems like the W is forming nicely, I think FCA approval should take care of any resistance levels - T minus 10 ( business days) and counting GLA

Sharesplease quote which was in the FT : http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b1332ce2-d136-11e4-86c8-00144feab7de.html#axzz3fmua2TOH High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b1332ce2-d136-11e4-86c8-00144feab7de.html#ixzz3fmvreAYw “PayPal is the 800 pound gorilla in this industry, and while I’m not sure we’re in their rear view mirror yet, there’s room for a number two,” said Joel Leonoff, Optimal’s chief executive, adding that the deal was “a very significant acceleration of our business plan”.

I think I read that it was the second biggest e-wallet after paypal. - rather than electronic payment processor. Having the ability to store value electronically is why it is heavily regulated and is why FCA has 60 days to approve the change of control. Because they handle client money you could think of them in many respects as a " digital bank" although they don't offer all of the services of a bank obviously. As far as I am aware ApplePay and GooglePay are not at present e-wallet providers, instead they use your phone to process payments using NFC technology in the phone i.e. instead of presenting your credit card you present your phone - this is where OPAY could be very attractive it is a regulated e-wallet where both Skrill and Net-Teller are known and respected brands with track record and very good risk protection. Also the enlarged OPAY is the biggest and best known provider of e-wallet in the gambling space - which is an are anticipated to grow significantly as further deregulation takes place in the years ahead.

Techni & GSmiley That is very kind many thanks, glad it was helpful - likewise in regards to your own posts - always insightful with little gems full of great analysis and common sense. Here is hoping that sanity returns over next fortnight and value starts to be reflected - T minus 14 and counting

Here are some real simple calcs that show just how oversold OPAY is at present : MV = £986m Cash Raised £451m Non cash element of valuation = £ 535m To put that in perspective relative to historical price , there were 163.1m shares pre rights and cash raised.so 535/163.1 = £3.28 in old money. There was only two points at which OPAY hit this level - initially back in late December 2013 and again on 14th May 2014 (just prior to AGM for FY2013 results). The good news is by Sept 2014 SP hit a new high of £5.36 - trough to peak of 63%. A lot has moved on since then so we should comfortably outstrip the above peak by at least another 30% on completion. Way Oversold IMHO !!

@vestor13 - congrats, you are well positioned at these levels. Correct the 575p high was pre-rights, post rights (5 for 3) that rebases to 332p GLA

@Garydav2 - ok try : http://www.hl.co.uk/ re SP - my focus is value not price. When trend reverses it will be 90 degrees so key is make sure you have seat booked on the rocket for real gains , "paper losses" of a few percent are not important- FCA could approve anytime between now and the 30th and boom opportunity over if not in. Houston we are counting down from 17.....16.....

@Garydav have SP charts been rebased for the RI - else comparing apples to oranges. Have a look at Hargreave Lansdown instead for historical comparison - makes it a lot more meaningful here is the link http://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/o/optimal-payments-plc-ordinary-0.01p/share-charts

@ Filmster - I don't think so, whilst £1.66 might have been the cash consideration, when you add in the £0.90p theoretical cost of the right - anyone selling below £2.56 is taking a loss, at current sp =15% loss In two words - GREXIT and FSA - pure and simple - both will be resolved within this month then we should see a return to sanity.

now available on PYPLV ticker...interesting I see Western Union sp fell 6% on the Zoom news which equates to the actual price PayPal paid for Zoom. I wonder will that have forced WU board to consider aqn in this space ?

@PanamaPete - I think we will see Greece resolved before the 20th July , "Angula" can't take the risk of turning it into full blown SWINE fever for PIIGS - a potential domino effect of removing ECB backstop on Greek debt. All PIIGS debt would come under question with a view to default - back to EU debt crisis of 2008-12 she will just play super nanny and put Greece on the naughty step for a week or so and use it to her advantage of being the stateswoman - after all she has her eye on UN Sec Gen role. A Grexit would kill that ambition - deliver a deal and she is a shoe in

Hi @technimentalist - many thanks , I agree if it can stay independent it will offer the most long term value - I just think we will have an uphill struggle to stay independent as the wall of cash out there in an industry that is now firmly in the cross hairs as a growth stock in the digital age- truly changing a market that was tied up by the banks. If I was offered Fibonacci - item 8 I would probably struggle to say no, ride off to the next adventure and name my firstborn Joel :) GLA - 18 days and counting

@technimentalist - interesting charts, many thanks. - fortunately we shouldn't have too long to wait - only 18 business days to X-mas and counting :) where do you see resistance level moving to as clock ticks down on Skrill deal completion - 380- 390 ?