Member Info for winalot

i agree with you ufufuo, regarding the share price, personally i can see ~2.5p - 3p with news on pipleine construction & ch1 rig contract. the amount of gas ch1 is targeting and hopefully going to prove up is mind boggling and whats more important and relevant is that the growth in near future demand is growing on a weekly basis (based on facts in the media). we have been told numbers and figures for what they expect from ch1 and potentially what it might prove up and we've all seen the 18 page presentation by ara which paints a rosy picture, but i think that's not the half of it. current gas production in tanzania is barely keeping up with demand, there is absolutely no way that all these contracts have been signed for power stations mini lng plants, cng stations, etc, etc based on current output, no. i don't think we know the full picture, that remains with ara, pura & the tpdc. they know something we don't and it's being kept under wraps for a reason, maybe the same reason shard keep releasing very conservative sp targets based on ****ty reasons. we are targeting 280mmscf/d by 5yrs but that amount of gas will be required way before that. and as ufufo says, no-one has ever really put a price on the condensate, which is bound to add a few pence to the sp.

all in my opinion of course but i'm ready for this story to really start unfolding. my sp prediction, for what it is worth, by year end based on gas production, revenue coming in and success at ch1 and online is at least 8-10p, which is only a mc of £447m. think about it, our share of proven gas could be +2tcf after ch1 drill and with places for the gas to go. that's got to be worth more than a 10p sp (£447m). this has another cove style takeover written all over it.

A good well written write up on the whole Ntorya project courtesy of Ashley on Telegram.

https://discoveryalert.com.au/ntorya-natural-gas-project-tanzania-2025/

Fair comment regarding the jurassic.

Ch1 may be the 3rd drill but the bigger picture is over 13 drills i think (see latest presentation). Tasty!

Nt3 was pre ara. Nt3 site will be utilised for other things, camp etc. Ch1 is the new "nt3' renamed and relocated. Site still to be confirmed

Nt1 won't be flowing until after the ch1 drill, as it needs a work over, unless they go there first but either way it needs a rig unlike NT2 which just needs a mobile test unit

His name is Brian Cassidy. Aex general counsel

A. Depends where the rig is currently located in the world.

B. 6-8 weeks for well pad construction which would need to be completed prior to the rig being set up. This could start anytime really. Not sure about actual rig setup and approved for use.

This is the Aminex board not the world peace board. Just saying.

How about we just stop discussing the matter as the more replies he gets the more he's getting what he wants, coverage of the short thread.

Kread, I'm guessing with your 'strong sell' analysis you're executing that process as we speak?

Crusty, I wouldn't say there's delays in rig news. Its been 5 weeks since the tender yes, but post that date there is alot to work through to finalise contracts and cross all the T's and dot the I's. If Aminex were in charge they may have released a further RNS to state just that but due to ARA being in the driving seat and not publicly listed they don't feel the need to update at every step.

Also, regarding a spud date in the new year being unrealistic, not my thoughts at all. Construction of a well pad could easily be done in 6-8 weeks so even if this started 5-6 weeks from now we could spud at the end of Jan. If a rig contract is finalised by month end then mobilising it to the country could start immediately (depending or availability and rig acceptance).

Also, one of ARA's previous tenders was to include catering and an Xmas BBQ. Just Saying!

I don't think we'll have to long to speculate.

I'd call £430K big buys!

I think the Eclipse holding is like an insurance policy for APT. They wouldn't mind AEX being taken over by a bigger entity with deeper pockets. That would eliminate any doubt of future development funding from AEX. If AEX are taken out for a modest 10p it basically pockets ARA/APT through Eclipse about £120m. That pays for all development costs so far, including CH1 and beyond, leaving the company with 75% of a world class producing asset that will have cost APT nothing after offsetting the profit from AEX shares. APT know this and will protect AEX until this happens (if it presents itself). Not to shabby a position to be in from APT perspective, or for AEX, knowing they got our back.

I agree that the mm's control the sp in times of lack of news but there's only so much control they have on any RNS release (good or bad).

My opinion is, if ch1 results are as expected (not better or worse) and we are bringing in revenue by Aug then 8-10p should be easily achieved. With better than expected results and a new CPR released then I don't see why the 15p can't be achieved but the end of 2026, AIMHO of course.

Watchouse, do you realistically see 15p and if so, at what point/ time frame? Just curious of people's opinions on what potential they think AEX sp can achieve post positive ch1 results and gas flowing in July?

Massive 24m buy. That ain't no put! lol

Mcco, I think most, if not all the unknown trades are buys. I can vouch for the 3m unknown trade as it was my buy.

Some good points yes, but lots of rubbish, negativity and mis-information in that article. The bigger picture isn't portrayed. IMHO.

The condensate is the hidden gem that we're all waiting to find out about. Something has to be in place by the time the gas flows. It has to go somewhere, and I'm sure they'll have some offload contracts signed by them. And it's 100% income to ARA/AEX

TA is showing Ntorya gas field has enough gas to blow up East Africa!