Member Info for winalot

I don't think he gets it

My thinking is the Tanz government have asked for the cpr before committing to the development licence. ARA will have good geologists and had no reason to get a cpr at this stage. Unless they plan to sell knowing the initial findings.

Just my thoughts of course

POC, Aminex are very good at giving dates which never materialise, they haven't learned their lesson in that respect. The fact that they have said CPR by Dec means nothing, even if they did have it they "ARA" can hold it back until they see fit to release it and there is nothing AEX can do about it. ARA run thr show not piddly little Aminex.

The pipeline is a pipe dream. lol

Well let me believe in peace, if you don't then doo one and don't waste your time here. The fact is that APT could of taken aminex out at any point multiple times, but they haven't. They could do it tomorrow if they wanted to. Deary me.

What a stupid comnent!

I have the same concern, any formal delay on GSA/ development licence will push us back 20-30% for god knows how long, but the other side of the coin, a good positive RNS on real progress should push us well towards the 2p mark. Do you feel luck punk, well....?

Same old disappointing AEX. 1 step forward 2 steps back. They must know something that they can tell us regarding Tanzanian authority progress, its been 6 weeks since our last update. Tiring!

"It seems highly likely as they are interdependent that the Attorney General’s approval of the GSA and Cabinet approval of the Development License by the Cabinet of Ministers will come at the same time."

Yes, but when is question. What do AEX mean by "coming month(s)". More false hope, its getting beyond a joke now, and the share price seems to only be heading one way of late.

No reason why they can't do both simultaneously, our sign offs aren't that complicated, especially the fact they are only awaiting for "final approval"

Tanzanian authorities said at the start of the year that gas production from Ntorya must be completed by year end "without delay".

I wish they would make up their mind

Why, what's the correlation between LNG and our gas? Nothing, just typical African pace of doing things. Growing this industry is still pretty new to them

"I presume we would do this interpretation in house?"

In house and ARA have contracted RPS to do an independent CPR before year end. All in the September 29th RNS.

CH1 was always intended to be drilled before NT1 workover, nothing has changed there. NT2 well testing was due months ago though.

Leagreen, I believe it was the same company that did the siesmics for us that was doing it for Orca but they have nothing to do with the analysis of the siesmics, they simply acquire the data and hand it over. The rest is up to ARA geologists to interpret and now RPS for the independent analysis.

The last Ruvuma update was actually the 29th of Sept when the half year results were released. I'm hoping for something this week or the share price will drift back yet again. Frustrating to say the least.

I wasn't saying yesterday's news wasn't the reason for the rise, clearly it was, but that aside it doesn't merit an AEX RNS.

Regarding ARA releasing siesmic data, I highly doubt it, not until the CPR is complete by RPS. The only ones privy to the data are ARA/ AEX & maybe what ARA have whispered in the TPDC ear to push them along a bit.

IMHO

AEX have no reason to RNS this as it has nothing to do with them, same as the long stop dates. It's between the operator (APT) and SCIR. But as you rightly say, with this milestone out the way hopefully the flood gates can now open with news as SCIR will also want to see progress as their future payments depend on it.

In my opinion, the SP does not reflect any of the up and coming information, and as mentioned before, the 0.5p - 1p range is purely based of consistent delays over the past few years. AEX have enough cash in the bank until the end of 2024 should nothing materialise from operations so no capital raise required, by which time I'm confident that we will be a producing company. I agree that there are alot of (over)optimistic statements regarding SP (i hope I'm wrong as i too am a very very long term holder) but I believe that being awarded the development licence for 25yrs will firm up the SP to a new level as this cements what ARA can do at (almost) their own pace and we know money is no object and that includes AEX with the free carry.

ARA are determined and very hungry for success and are an experienced bunch who will have the best engineers & geologists working on the project, success is inevitable. Remember, Tanzania are double desperate for gas

A positive CPR would be the icing on the cake!

IMHO

I hope so! 12yrs is a long time reading this BB daily

Split between aex & ara I would imagine. Then aex would be liable for 50% of scir costs so far which would be deducted from aex free carry monies.

Tpdc had there chance of 1st refusal I think.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

My money is on the scir deal closing first before ara release sort if gsa, ffd etc news. But I also think next week could be it for the scir deal ironed out.