“Some you win and some you lose”.. with respect amtech, there is no evidence here you have won anything in your life. Plenty of evidence that you will get it wrong, bluster and try to disown however. The market is so clinically objective in these situations. ATB
I don’t want to get into a long conversation about it but a pension deficit is NOT debt. It is a far longer term liability, managed by trustees who can act with considerable flexibility, and generally understand the need to maintain a healthy business to protect future contributions. Carclo appears to have a supportive relationship with the trustees. So if the assertion is that the pension deficit should be added to the EV in the same way net debt is, that is a rather subjective assessment, and not one that all educated investors will agree with.
??? Given the market cap is 200m GBP and they have over 150m usd net debt, I think your 160m usd enterprise value figure is wrong. Also, the most recent FCF is heavily benefiting from exceptionally high sales of exceptional stones. I have a large holding here and it’s a great story IMO, without the embellishments!!
The presence of Mr McCarats - an entirely unconvincing avatar - is good news for holders. Somebody wants your shares. The only sad part is, people like McCarats usually work for tin pot outfits with limited capital - they aren’t qualified for proper City work - so it won’t offer a great deal of support. But anyway, better than nowt.
I’m very much playing the ball amtech, and it has been placed in your net quite a few times. Please look at the score - the shares are currently 50% above where you started getting your knickers twisted and discouraging people. The reason you are losing is simple - you underestimated the impact of contract news and a rising oil price on the markets risk/return perception of GMS, preferring instead to focus on potential negatives. It is quite likely now, that even in the event the issue does take place it will be above the 3.8p where you started discouraging others, and one may need to own shares to participate anyway. So with an eye firmly on the ball - looking at investment returns and who predicted what - you are not looking clever right now. Surely there is a board somewhere where you’ve called something right?! … or is being 50% offside the best you’ve got.. ATB
“Always happens when little boys are beaten and have no answer.”… without question, McCatee is currently beating you. Because you were discouraging people at 3.8p and the shares are now 5.6p to buy. In the event a 65% dilution happens around the current price as you suggest, the market cap will rise to circa £90m and the free cash yield will be 30%+. Still sounds like a very nice place to be. ATB :)
Thanks splendor, but that is the gross debt number. The NET debt number - debt minus cash - is around $150m. Not large either in relation to assets or forecast cash flows. I anticipate that when the debt rating agencies review PDL, there will be highly material upgrades that reduce interest costs going forward. Notwithstanding an unexpected collapse in diamond prices - and actually the supply/demand balance looks highly favourable over the next few years - PDL looks extremely good value here. Probably why the chairman has been buying. ATB
Given they are only looking for signals of immunogenicity, how many patients do they need? Even a sample of 16 may provide sufficient clinical proof to suggest a larger trial is (more than) warranted. But I am sure recruitment will continue to rise and, as they say, you can never have too much data.
The net debt is $154m, before inventories worth another $59m. I can’t see the context in which this can be considered enormous in the context of cash flows or assets, but perhaps the sceptics can explain? Thanks