Member Info for Wigster77

Is Buzz Lightyear one of the Avengers?

Aether, I've noticed quite a few of your posts are of the "what will the SP be if x happens?" type. I'm sure a lot of us have pondered the same question and it's difficult, if not impossible, to predict with any sort of accuracy.

What I am certain of is that we will no longer get to anywhere near where we were pre-RNS (£1.80-£2.10) with just hope and anticipation now. It will need more than "just" positive results IMO, as people have been stung by having their previous positive expectations pulled like a rug from under their feet, so are rightly wary of Synairgen and their capabilities.

In my opinion, even if all Sprinter deep dive & Activ-2 results are stellar we will still struggle to see 50p, let alone £1. I'm not sure that inclusion into any more trials will result in a surge upwards in SP either... I think it will take EUAs and firm ORDERS to start to move us anywhere near to previous highs. At this point things could potentially snowball of course, as Synairgen's profile will be a lot higher and reputation repaired somewhat too, so more and more orders could mean big pharmas sniffing around for a fair TO price. A long long way to go to reach this stage, but I'm in it for the long haul. Nothing much left to lose!!

All IMO, DYOR and GLA :-)

Fair point - is it Data Magik doing the analysis?.. can't remember.

Even so, I would like to think the brief to them from Synairgen is to "leave no stone unturned" in the quest to prove the efficacy of SNG001 beyond all shadow of statistical doubt.

In other words, carry out an exhaustive and painstaking "deep dive" of the Sprinter Dataset (and datasets from previous studies and trials where appropriate) and slice, dice and cut it every which way necessary to achieve this aim. To do this properly will take time and I'm guessing anything they do manage to find will have to be checked and checked again to ensure it stands up to scrutiny (especially since most people will have written off SNG001 from February's RNS).

This line from the latest RNS dated 17th March makes me wonder about timelines too:

"Synairgen expects to receive the Phase 2 data from ACTIV-2 in the first half of this year and will evaluate it alongside the full dataset from its SPRINTER trial to better understand the effects of SNG001 in patients at risk of developing severe illness due to respiratory viruses".

Note the word "alongside". This reads to me like we might need to wait for the receipt and analysis of the ACTIV-2 data before hearing anything about the SPRINTER deep-dive...

Could be a long wait...

This is Synairgen...take your best timescale, double it and add on 3 months if you're feeling lucky, 6 months if not :-)

Numis thought that market could be worth £85/share, Finncap £75, taking into account stockpiling of the drug for future use...

At the minute 1/100th of those figures would be nice...1/10th very nice!! But, if SNG is a goer these are the figures Synairgen need to quote if big Pharmas were to come in with pi55-take bids.

Sorry, should have put a comma after the word "burning" :-)

There's fires burning Mr Marsden...do the right thing to get SNG001 commercialised and saving lives as quickly as possible.

Go back over the last 24 hours...plenty of good bits in amongst the rubbish

Another slide for the "give us an EUA" presentation...

"What would a positive spin on the RNS have done to our SP, especially given the excellent potent I/v results that have been lost in the poorly communicated company response?"

We'd be at 10x our current pitiful SP I'd imagine. Infuriating.

Morning Andy. You are certainly consistent in your scathing assessment of RM!

I share the frustration, but have a lesser desire to see his head on a pike. Possibly "better the devil you know" or maybe a concern that a change of CEO at this stage might do more harm than good? I'm not quite sure...

Anyhow, it's a fair point that RM and the senior team have had 17 years to get a product to market and failed.
Maybe due to a struggle to transition from a scientifically-driven research company to a more commercially-driven one...although they did certainly seem to be making the right moves in terms of partnerships and hires to get SNG001 commercialised prior to P3 results, so there maybe a glimmer of hope there.
They also have a team of very well-connected people with Sir Stephen Holgate a useful figurehead, with a large degree of respect and gravitas from what I can see, so you'd think that was another positive?

Ref your point on "starting from scratch again" (possibly with a new CEO), I fear this would take a lot longer than the 6 months you state and there is the chance of something going wrong, goalposts changing again or any number of unseen curveballs.

Therefore, and also based on the excellent posts by Tommy, Brand and other people yesterday, my preference now is "no more trials". Instead, use the deep-dive of ALL of the data we have got from previous trials and present this in the best and most compelling way, to seek an EUA. We "know" SNG001 works and is safe. Covid is spiking again, with new more variants seemingly being announced daily - there is (still) the "fire to put out" that RM said we needed in previous interviews.

The team should be looking to strike while the iron is hot, both from a commercial and a moral "life saving" point of view. Again, based on the posts yesterday it seems there are precedents of EUAs being granted on encouraging (but not perfect) data, or using In-Vitro data, or continuing "trialling" drugs after they have been commercialised and are being used in anger and so on. It all seems possible and I'd like to think that Synairgen are aware of these potential routes to commercialisation and are pursuing them like the clappers, resulting in a VERY POSITIVELY WORDED RNS to follow shortly.

I'll type that last bit again in case there are any of the Synairgen team on here: VERY POSITIVELY WORDED RNS.

So, main question for me...are Synairgen on the same page as most of us seem to be, or are they happy to keep plodding along with trial after trial and turning positive data into rather underwhelming RNSs?

All IMO, DYOR and GLA :-)

Yes - another great post Tommy. Not wanting to creep, but I think I'd be more confident in my Synairgen investment if you and a few other notable posters were working for them right now...

Good find Tommy, looks positive. You'd like to think that Synairgen would be aware of such precedents, but as Jonnyboy33 says I wouldn't take this for granted...

Certainly, if we can avoid the need for any more fecking trials I think that'd be a massive win.

Aether - Valuation I guess would depend on what these "gems" could lead to.

**IF** Synairgen have somehow managed to wave their magic wand over the data (by combining previous trials, excluding certain subgroups, looking at it through a kaleidoscope - whatever) and can show statistical significance on various important measures (reduction in death & excellent safety profile of SNG001 primarily) ...and this is enough to warrant an EUA being granted, a product and governments around the world placing orders...then it's far more than £1, more like £10+ I would think.

Lots of IFs, following winds, lucky heather and rose-tinted specs required though...

Funny you should mention passing the baton TLW. I was just looking at Pfizer on Wiki (specifically looking at what mergers and acquisitions they'd been involved in previously) and this line stood out:

"In September 2020, the company acquired a 9.9% stake in CStone Pharmaceuticals for $200 million (HK$1.55 billion), helping to commercialise its anti-PD-L1 monoclonal antibody, CS1001"

I wonder if something similar would be possible / desirable for Synairgen and SNG001?

I wonder if Ray Jordan the pharmaceutical PR guru is still involved with Synairgen?

...or he could be on the golf course with the Pfizer CEO, just discussing the final details of their £10Bn takeover of Synairgen.

And I typed that without any alcohol or drugs in my system :-)

My situation is very similar to Doc83's - I thought "in for a penny, in for a pound"...

"Best wishes all, whatever your position".

Many thanks Kilgeever!! My position is standing up, legs apart, getting repeatedly kicked in the crown jewels by negative (or at least underwhelming) RNSs. I do however continue to hold, in anticipation of positive news, expertly highlighted in a glowing RNS which is lauded and celebrated worldwide.

GLA!!

A couple of billion would be a bargain for one of the big pharmas who have the knowledge and clout to get SNG001 to market.