Member Info for Wiggly

PIs have been gifting the IIs all week, aided by the recent interview.

A 3 day roadshow (designed to showcase Avacta to II) followed by 'the interview' which did not appear to be designed to showcase Avacta to PIs begs the question... Was it designed to replace PI with II?

New TR1s should clarify.

I think he'd still be ramping things (even the lft ) if he had any concerns about the future prospects. He would certainly be ramping Ava6k much more than he is (same as he did lft at beginning).

He seems to be quietly confident with what's to come and unconcerned with the current share price? If he had any concerns about share price (and ability to raise)I do think he'd have created some more excitement during recent interview.

Many posters painting a picture that it's all or nothing on Ava6k when it's not the case. The LG chem deal is potentially worth billions and they obviously like what they have developed with Affimers hence continue to progress the partnership towards clinic (it's coming and surprised it's never really discussed here )

Just a thought but it is also worth remembering how horribly wrong AS was with previous LFT timings . His reputation with some is already shot therefore he is unlikely to give any firm timelines again or use words such as shortly, soon, very soon...

We could be making good progress but unless its 100% nailed on I doubt he will commit or provide positive guidance

A bad day at the office for AS? He seemed different from previous interviews, 'grumpy' and not his bullish self. Perhaps he's been warned for previous... (which he certainly has) or perhaps he was being uber respectful of the situation (terminal patients supporting trial and all that can come with that...)

The cynic in me questions whether the interview was downplayed in order to tee things up for the II to accumulate.... There is also previous for this with the initial 2020 placing at mates rates followed immediately by the initial LFT news.... Accumulation is possible at mates rates right now... Don't be surprised to see special news to follow.

Either way, its not all doom and gloom as some make out. AS speficially mentioned the following drivers for 2022:

-AVA6k PK data
-3996 progress/partnering
-LG chem (making great progress towards clinic)
-daewong making progress
-new partnership programmes

I am Massively under water but the above gives me more than hope that the situation will look very different in the near term.

Avacta are in a strong position and can leverage the ability to raise to secure licence / partnership

I think it's very likely we (PIs) will hear from AS this coming week. The DE RNS was monumental and is the very reason he's spent 3 days explaining the data to the IIs.

Regarding discussion related to future placings... Based on the expected cash position I don't think AS needs to rush into any decision. I believe there will be quite a few non dilutive options, such as:

-AVA6k early licence deal. The DE RNS confirms that the underlying tech (reduced side effects) works. The clinicians running the trial will also have some idea as to efficacy on the Tumor. If this looks reasonable there is no need for interested parties to wait.

-Ava3996 licence deal. As above, the data now on hand should be sufficient to attract early partners

- LG chem. Not much discussion here but this partnership is progressing and the next news could also be monumental.

-LFT. AS will have a rough idea on timing of incoming revenues

Very different company now vs time of previous cash raise, with signifcant near term revenue opportunities plus realistic partnering opportunities that can now command material initial payments.

I believe that the II's attending the roadshow are locked out until next week. Next week should be telling

It looks as though Avacta timed the road show to coincide with the date at which the safety committee were planned to meet / publish the decision to proceed with the DE stage. Avacta will have known that the DE approval was a formality based on the data generated and have timed the road show to discuss the data.

With DE approved, the PK and safety data is now available therefore likely to be shared with market as per previous guidance. I'd expect update next week followed by several presentations/interviews with the AS and NB

The attendees at the roadshow are likely receiving a very detailed presentation with Q&A. I would not be surprised if they were receiving ( under NDA ) a pre market review of the PK and safety data for which will be announced to the wider market next week.

The II will have time to digest the data and plan their strategy for the opening bell next week.

Please correct me if wrong but while historic trials have tested safer delivery mechanisms I dont believe any have proven the mechanism of action and moved to dose escalation.

3996 'suggested' Precision was working but the market did not believe.

This RNS confirms 100% that the Precision Mechanism of action (e.g. Dox was activated in the Tumour with reduced exposure in healthy tissue) has worked as planned.

This is a major announcement.

50% more Dox than the current standard is very telling. This stuff is potent so things must look very good

The market is pricing Precision to fail but the following really does suggest otherwise therefore, perhaps today the market will correct:

- Trigger of 3996 (Neil Bell spelled out that 3996 would only be triggered if the Precision mechanism of action was confirmed)

- Road show (really looking forward to learning more regarding the data rich precision data)

- New CMO

- Dose Escalation

The market needs to correct the value currently assigned to Avacta as all of the above conclude that the probability of success is far higher than <5%.

With AVA6k on the horizon I am 'over' the CV testing opportunity, which may or may not deliver success - I am more inclined towards not delivering any success albeit I think that Affimers being used widely as a high performance Dx technology may have solid long term value.

I am much more interested in what is beginning to look like probable success for AVA6k. Any success with AVA6k and we turn into multi-billion $ company overnight! Its close.

If AVA6k/precision performs in humans as it did with mice then what happens with the LFT does not matter. We'd be valued at multi billions regardless

Much better title.

We have never had a false dawn related to precision... So fingers crossed.

Very much hope its therapeutics related. A successful precision platform would be massive.

Those that have held over the last 24 months have certainly had our share of false dawns (a promising situation which comes to nothing) but this is starting to feel very different.

Unless Avacta are deliberately trying to fool investors (no chance Imo) then it's starting to look odds on that Precision works. A working precision platform is really, really huge (company making) news for Avacta and while we do not yet know for sure, there is certainly increasing evidence to suggest positive news is incoming:

1. Selection of 3996 (see previous posts about exactly what this means... In short, based on previous guidance from Neil Bell, it means precision is working)

2. Website changes putting AVA6k front and centre with introduction of new, never before seen language - 'Using this pro-drug approach, the systemic exposure to the chemotoxin IS dramatically reduced, and the safety and therapeutic window of these powerful anti-cancer treatments is improved'

3. 3 day road show scheduled next week.

While nothing is a sure thing until detailed within RNS we all make investment decision based on research and probabilities.

I'd say the that, based on above points, the probability has increased (its now odds on in my view) towards precision working!

Major news and we will see major re rate when confirmed. Not sure there is any previous example of an AIM company delivering such monumental news but it seems likely now

Almost 24 hours and still not one response from the resident trolls, even though they were invited to counter.

Funny that.

Precision Mechanism of Action has been confirmed... let that one sink in.

Listen again to the Q&A that was posted on twitter by the bomb (see below) - Neil Bell spelled out that a very critical point in the AVA6k trial would be reached during Q4 21 where critical PK and safety data would be on hand. He says that at this point, Avacta would be able to confirm that all of the data from the pre-clinical setting (recall just how good that data with mice was) had been translated into the human setting and would, at this point, trigger 3996....

I'd urge all to listen again and make their own minds up:

https://twitter.com/tom_the_bomb__/status/1485719015377059851?s=20

With Avacta directors on record stating precisely what good data would mean in terms of triggering the 3996 RNS, I think there is zero chance that the Nomad would sanction the 3996 RNS if data was not good. I'd welcome any counter view from the trolls on this one?

Reading between the lines, Avacta would appear to have enough data on hand to feel very confident that Precision works, hence they triggered the 3996 RNS. I'd guess that they are now finalizing the review of the AVA6k data prior to release to the world (it is big news), hence will take time to ensure accuracy / peer review / sign off etc.

Pulling the LFT from the market (to tweak performance) would make perfect sense if significant news related to AVA6k was in the pipe. Holding a 3 day roadshow would also make sense if significant AVA6k news was in the pipe.

The current share price is a mystery but it wouldn't be the first time I have witnessed a share in the doldrums suddenly burst into life.

Fingers crossed!