Member Info for Wellington99

I doubt that Funinvestor fails to understand that the market is forward looking.

I've always viewed the Greidinger Familt Trust's c20% holding as a poison pill against a successful takeover bid.

Given that there was plenty of opportunity to move dates forward due to the data being far better than what was hoped for when the original roadmap was set out and the fact that he Rule of Six was supposed to be revised an reavaluated but wasn't I would have thought that June 21st is nailed on for 'ending restrictions', although it actually won't end all restrictions, in the new doublespeak.

The whole thing is a political ploy so that Boris and Co can say that they have delivered what they promised and is purely set up as a line for the next set of elections.

Data not dates is the most disingenous strapline ever.

ITrader doubling his position.

@FunInvestor Agreed.
The stock market may be forward looking, but it will still take into account the damage and losses caused over the last year. The Balance Sheet, which was already a cause for concern, has got worse.
Although that impairment is nowhere near the accounting loss, there is now more debt which needs to be serviced and repaid.
There will be some sudden spurts upward in the share price, but I expect (and have factored in) a long hard slog upwards.
It will come right eventually, but we've had most of the easy wins.

Yes, they tend to do that, for the reasons you set out, but that is not an immutable law of nature.
Arguably, all this messing around with lockdowns, makes the likelihood of getting a really nasty variant more likely, because instead of letting relatively benign versions such as the Kent variant rip through the younger population thus creating natural immunity and then herd immunity, it creates a real life petri dish for new variants to develop. Likewise keeping the borders open.
All of what I have said is possible, but in my view isn't the way to bet, which is why I'm invested in Cine and look forward to some nice hefty increases in the share price in the future.

The £3 or £0 was a throwaway line at the end of what was supposed to be a helpful post about why we won't be getting the AMC treatment on Cineworld, but I should have known that anything on this board that didn't express total conviction that the share price would increase massively would be jumped upon.
For the record, I very much doubt that this ends up the way of Intu or the like, but it very nearly did back in October last year, and there is a very small chance that a new super lethal, super viriluent version of the virus takes hold forcing another wave of lockdowns at which point you could see the debt holders saying enough is enough and then taking control of the company wiping out the equity slug.
One of the attractions of highly geared companies is that the equity slice, as the residuary beneficiary, is highly sensitive and thus volatile to the health of the business. This means that the upsides are larger than with ungeared companies but the opposite is also true.

Long time lurker, first time poster.

I thought that it might be helpful to set out why, in my opinion, unfortunately we won't be seeing the sort of meteoric rise in CINE that has been the case in AMC.
OK, so we all know that it is a meme stock, pumped by Redditors, and we'd all love the same to happen here, but the reality is that that is highly unlikely and we just have to accept that this is a great stock that will find its right level in due course.
So, what's the difference?
Firstly, there are three parts to the exponential AMC raise:
1) Stimmies buying ordinary stock. That is our basic Supply and Demand which moves the price a bit
2) Options. This is the rocket fuel. If enough Calls are bought, when the price starts to rise the dealers have to cover their risk by buying stock. AKA Gamma squeeze which Zerohedge explains so well.
3) After that, our old friend happens which is short covering by hedgies which is like pirhanas in a feeeing frenzy.
All three done well means "The Moon!"
So, how does Cine fit in there?
Well, on the first stage, alas we don't have the kind of depth of market of retail investors with "stimmies" to get this critical mass, and US investors won't buy non-US stocks in the same way as US stocks for a bunch of reasons.
The second stage is also not great. In the US, Spread Betting and the like is illegal whereas in the UK, if you want a leveraged play, then that is the way to go. Sadly, SB/ CFDs don't produce the same positive feedback loops that options do.
Thirdly, on the short squeeze: in our market a double digit short is relatively rare, whereas in the US there are dozens of stocks with 30+% of short interest, so the short covering is less aggressive.
In summary?
Great company, with lots of debt which makes the share price very volatile.
If it survives and thrives it could be back to £3. If it goes wrong, then £0.
Good luck all etc