Member Info for Wellington99

@smalltrader You are the living embodiment of the axiom "Empty vessels make the most noise"
Large organisations (such as the Ontario Courts) have many people who are privy to confidential information.
Usually, that only relates to really rather dull cases with little implication for publicly traded companies.
This occasion is different.
It is entirely possible that a low level functionary has seen or heard something that contains market sensitive data and then either passed it to a friend "who knows about such things" or been paid for that information.
This has nothing to do with 'Barbara'
BTW having just been (virtually) in the Court of Chancery as the Claimant (Client rather than Solicitor or instructed Counsel) I was struck by the difference in quality between our lawyers and those in Canada.
The claim I was pursuing was only for a few hundreds of thousands of pounds (on behalf of the company I work for, not me peronally alas) but the quality of the Judge and Counsel for both sides was genuinely impressive.
I watched the Cineplex/ Cineworld case (only around 20% truth be told) but I did find it by comparison quite poor, and 'Barbara' was deeply unimpressive. She seemed to be led by Cousel by the nose, and had little to say on the matters of law but was more pre-occupied by process and timings.
So what you say?
I say, that I doubt that a judgement in this case will be allowed to stand as precedent for other cases and it will be appealed all the way up the tree.
So sadly, I don't think that this will be the end of the matter.
Although happily, I think that should she dismiss the arguments of quantum on the claim, that will stand, but the general principle as to what constitutes "Orinary Course" will be decided elsewhere because of the ramifications.
As to our interests?
If it comes down to c$10m either way, then the cloud is lifted.

@Crumpets - it would be a bigger red flag if they did route it via another party as that shows 'Mens Rea'.
Quite easy for them to explain it away by saying that they took advice from an eminent Canadian lawyer who had reviewed the evidence and thought the outcome favoured Cineplex (which they might have done) or to reverse engineer an algo which said the mathematical conditions of X,Y, & Z said "short the fcuk out of Cine!" (which might have been the case without reverse engineering)
Anyhow, plenty of people have posited that the share price is being played and (erroneously in my view) attributed that to the Market Makers.
I tend to agree that not all in the garden is rosy but suspect that the foul play is from the Hedge Funds, and this just looks like a cake on the worktop with half of it missing and a labrador sat underneath it with the phrase "ain't me wot done it gov" in his eyes.
Occam's razor would seem to apply.

I still can't for the life of me understand how, in the event of Cineworld losing, that the Court can award damages of anything over legal fees and broken deal costs which are chicken feed - IIRC $10 - 20m.
So it may be that someone has got a whiff that Cineplex will win the case, and is trading on that basis.
I don't think it's the end of the world and I will continue to hold, but this sort of trading pattern does nothing to give me confidence that the market isn't a false one.
As to the question will Cineplex get CAN$2.1bn, that is inconceivable - that would mean that the Court would be forcing through only one half of the deal which is absurd (in both the legal and common sense meaning)

@LPD The judgement won't be published until then, but the decision has probably already been made.
If you have ever seen the size of these judgements, they run to several hundred pages, so the delay isn't in coming to the conclusion, it's the writing up of the justifciation that takes the time.
Maybe someone's relative or friend works as a secretary/ in the reprograghics department or whatever and saw an early draft or initial thoughts.

@LPD The volume today could also mean a shorter selling into the rally.
If the Toronto, Ontario based K2 & Associates pop up again with a bigger short over the next few days then I think we can be pretty sure that someone's cousin works in the Court House and knows something.
They have no previous interest in Cineworld as far as I'm aware and to wait until the SP hits the mid 50s to start shorting is very odd - why not do it in the 70s and 80s, not much has changed?
The only reason that an Ontario based 'Event Driven' hedge fund would choose now to start shorting is if a piece of information has just become available.
Perhaps from the Ontario based Court which is hearing the multi-billion dollar case?
Absolutely stinks and I hope it's investigated.

Oil opened 45 minutes ago and is up 3.3% - traders seem to be looking through the scaremongerting.
Indicative FTSE 100 is up just under 1% so I'd be surprised at a bloodbath.

I've been digging into the accounts to try and understand what the actual effect of the Covid shutdown has been.
At 31/12/2019 Net Debt was USD 3.5bn
At 31/12/2021 I Estimate it will be c USD 4.8bn
So a net increase of USD 1.3bn which is cGBP1 bn
With 1.3bn shares in issue, that equates to an increase in debt of 75p per share.
So looking at it at an Enterprise Value level (Equity + Debt = EV) then Debt's value of the Enterprise has increased by 75p per share at the cost of Equity.
In other words, as a rule of thumb, if you are comparing historic share prices with now, you should deduct 75p from the historic levels to get to the now price (all other things being equal, i.e. no court case and Cine firing on all cylinders.
That would suggest if the same conditions existing at 31/12/2019 existed now, then from a share price then of £2.25 we should expect a price of £1.50.
Now, obviously we are not there yet, but that gives an indication of what we will be trading at when this blows over.
As for upside, well at the end of 2019, the price had tanked from over £3 due to a poor film slate and the Cineplex takeover worrying investors about over-reach.
So if you want to believe that those conditions are possible again, then a price over £2.50 looks doable in the medium term.
I would say that if you belive Mooky that 2022 will be as good as if not better than 2019, then we should see this hit £1.50 in the second half of 2022, as long as the court case ends up a near enough score draw.

I would expect to see a lot of shorts closing over the next few days.
The media fear storm has done its thing, but it looks like although infectious, Omicron doesn't actually make you very ill. Goldman Sachs have already called it as bull**** and recommended that people don't change their portfolio on the basis of it.
Cine is largely PI price driven at the moment, but I would expect quite a few institutions to use this drop as a profit taking / derisking opportunity.
Bumpy over the next few days but all over by Friday.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-slams-omicron-panic-mutation-unlikely-be-more-malicious-no-reason-major-portfolio

"this mutation is unlikely to be more malicious and that the existing vaccines will most likely continue to be effective in preventing hospitalizations and deaths" and as a result, while Goldman "would monitor the situation in Gauteng closely over the next month, we do not think that the new variant is sufficient reason to make major portfolio changes."

"Translation: brace for a face-ripping rally come Monday when carbon-based traders finally take over from the idiot algos."

Continental Europe is in a very tricky position for the next couple of months as it experiences its Exit Wave, the UK is not. The UK opened up in the Summer and so got lots of its infections out of the way over a longer period and when the NHS wasn't under pressure.
As a result of that and the vaccines, the ONS estimates that 95% of the adult population has Covid antibodies.
We will not have another lockdown here because any Covid benefits would be nugatory especially compared with economic & other health harm that would be caused by it.
If this drop is Covid related as Investor Relations say it is, then it is throughly unwarranted.
The only things that worry me longer term are an adverse result to the Court Case (which would have to be perverse to mean damages over the $10m level) or a deeply discounted Rights Issue.
Absent those two things, this is badly underpriced in my view and a good bet for the future.

There is money to be made in Crypto, but you have to remember that with all Ponzi schemes, you have to get out before the crash. Cinemas accepting Crypto isn't a sign of their replacement of fiat currency, it's a marketing gimmick.

The US, UK and Israel will not be having another lockdown, much to the chagrin of the mainstream media.
The ONS estimates that over 95% of the UK adult population have Covid antibodies either through vacinnation or prior infection and the US and Israel are at similar levels.
On the continent they are having the final exit wave, which was always going to happen and they have learnt that you can run but can't hide, which is unpleasant for them but not really an issue for Cine as we have virtually no operations there.
Covid is so in the rear view mirror it's dull that they keep churning out the scare stories.

I have no control over the process, all I can do is help fellow long term holders understand the risk and reward time scale.
I wish that other posters did the same.

Cineplex did an update call that had a small mention of the case:
"Before I turn things over to Gord, I would like to provide a brief update on the Cineworld litigation. As you may have heard, the trial has now concluded with the closing arguments having finished last week, we feel confident in the integrity of the process that unfolded before the Ontario Superior Court and anticipate that judgment several months. "

That would suggest February onwards if several is taken to mean "more than two but not manymore"

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4468428-cineplex-inc-cpxgf-ceo-ellis-jacob-on-q3-2021-results-earnings-call-transcript

The headline made me think that Polygon had soiled themselves.

@latpulldown
I value your posts, and I take my hat off to you for the diligence you have shown in seeking out information that is of interest and use to us long term holders and I also thank you for the constant flow of data about the market.
I am also interested in your views and weigh them with the available evidence in constructing my own opinion.
But (and there always is a but!) please don't sanction those who offer a contrary view.
It isn't all roses, and there are some hard yards to come.
Hopefully we will all profit in the long run, and I expect that to be the case.
(obviously the half-wits who are trolling or ramping should be Green Boxed, but a balanced view is usually the way to win)

hA Ha @fUNInvEstOR sELF OwnED!
he FOrGOt tO aDJuSt for The SWitch FrOM the jULian cALeNDaR tO tHE GrEGoRiAN CALeNDar!

BTW It's "moot" not "mute" - one means debatable, as in lawyers holding "Moots" and the other means "silence"

He'll just say that more people are eligible for boosters.
Numbers don't justify anything else.

The thing about hedge funds is that they are very rarely *net* short and are often (especially in this broken markey) net long. So if someone was playing the pandemic they would be long (say) Big Pharma and Tech and short Lesiure and Travel stocks such as Cine.
That's why I think we see a correlation with the leisure and travel sector, it's a differential play on the whole sector.

I did some analysis on the short positions as set out on the Ortex website that someone on here kindly posted.
Although one can't be certain of the exact prices I make it that the geniuses at New Holland Capital have an average price of 50p whilst Whitebox Advisers were around the 73p mark.
Yes folks New Holland Capital are sitting on a loss (@73p today's price) of around £7m whilst Whitebox are just breaking even.
I'll do some more number cruching on the others, but these hedgies are not looking as smart as they are held out to be!