Member Info for wealthtrasfer

Aimless - if dropping on no news is worrying, what was a 16% rise on no news?

I love to see you and FP back, I know that a rise is coming then.

There are no trading update delays.

Mischief and misinformation.

15 month year ending 31st March due to new Auditors requesting time to complete. Therefore have until end of June. Next financial year is 9 months and therefore reverting to end of Dec

Year end, back to historical year end and reporting.

It’s all there in the RNS’s for all to see !

JO as much as I enjoy your hubris, the fate of Mobico is not going to turn on whether the Iran / us conflict resolves to your satisfaction. It is going to depend on several independent outcomes. Us/iran is one short term issue. The only outcome that is going to really going to return the company to where it should be (not 30p or 40p) is demonstrating £100m operating cost reduction and free cash generation. A demonstration that debt is not a problem medium term rather than short term macro.

Did WMATA cancel the contract to cap their own losses from litigation as they are concerned that they may lose? .this puts a stop on Diamonds operating losses it also puts a stop to any claims other than loss of profit.

The bond price is as indicative as the share price. The company under Garret talked a good game but didn’t deliver on any of its promises or targets. So the market is not at all convinced that the debt can be managed. On top of that we now have future fuel price pressures which were sited as an issue in previous results, albeit they are largely hedged for the near future. The whole thing is going to turn on the new management delivering the cost savings and deliver a profit and recovering cash flow to service the debt. It is doable if several ducks line up in a row. The company has suffered so many set backs over the last few years of which many were not in their control. It’s been an endless beating which is why both the share price and bond price is in the doldrums. We need a change of luck and management action and actually deliver some strong results. This I believe can happen for the 9 month accounts April to Dec this year and that the management will conservatively upgrade the forecast.

@john33 it’s not Mobico getting sued. Mobico are suing WMATA for reducing their routes awarded under contact. WMATA are arguing Mobico didn’t deliver to contract.

@helloDave the company said it expected to resolve in the next 18months

There’s probably 4-6 weeks before update u less they can turn it around quickly. Plenty of time for taking positions

When all the loons come out (FPower et al) you know the bottom is nearly in!

There’s only one possible offeror and they are going to need big backers to settle the debt. They (Cosmens) tried before and didn’t go through with it due to debt and that was at a time of lower debt level, so it would seem unlikely.

The share price holding up reasonably well given Citadel, Shaw and GLG all selling and increasing their short positions and now Aberforth selling. There is an equal and opposite force in play.

Bladey -Q1 is April - June this year. Reporting July/Aug. Returning to Jan - Mar for 2027. We are waiting on 15 month audited accounts due in the next few weeks. The audited accounts are unlikely to show anything we don’t know already but the updated 9 month forecast for this years accounts will likely be upgraded to take into account German Rail resolution and accelerated cost savings.

@John33 ask Winton and GLG, they probably know more than you/us

Audited accounts no later than June. Don’t expect anything anything in the backward looking financials, however it’s all going to be about the potential upgrade to 2026 targets. Then potentially a much better result for the 9 months year end reported March 27. That’s what I’m holding for. 12 months to confirm.

I guess the smart money wanted to get out before ArrowStreet saw the light. When everyone has gone can you turn the light out and shut the door Aimless.

Aimless - what is your rational for wanting to Short be because Arrowstreet reported an increase in short two days ago (increased the short earlier last week).

Is it because you think ArrowStreet has better coverage and analysis that GLG and Winton who reduced at the similar time? Or you have?

Seen it over and over…. When the shorting clown outfits all appear in unison, you know it’s the bottom of that particular cycle as they try a final scare to drop the price and then get out.

It’s an interesting tug-of-war between short and long. Shorts have the debt burden (Hybrid mainly being the issue the rest being easily serviceable) and war related inflation and interest rates on their side. Longs have a £100m of annual efficiency gains, German Rail provision release, Uk asset release, strong growth in core ALSA markets, cash in hand to service debt for 2 years and a saleable asset in WeDriveU.

Is that you confirming you are opening a short at current price? What’s your target? Much talk and advice but little action!

For me both sides (sensible comments) are valid. The debt is large when taking in the Hybrid. The hybrid is the issue but there is a way out and one which will be taken when the time is right imo. That is cashing in WeDriveU. If that can be sold at a solid at a price that reflects the investment and opportunity then the hybrid can be refinanced at say £250m and we are back in with a real chance of recovery.

The financial gods have not been kind to Mobico. We need everything to go right for a couple of years.