Member Info for wasarunner

Excellent, it is what was needed I feel. Steady the boat so to speak. Don't particularly see recovery though until we are through the worst of it in the next few months, and don't particularly expect news from the co. - instinct tells me finance and mine build will be delayed - maybe not substantially, but a bit in any case.

What's interesting is we are now valued at the low prior to Orion. Before Orion, we didn't know if financing would happen (or not) but we didn't have the Orion cash. Now, wider market is in a worse state, but we have cash.

If, as I suspect, we have MORE cash now to weather the storm (so we can survive longer now with current cash, than we could have survived pre Orion with pre Orion cash) then in theory we are in a better place than we were a year ago. In which case the price/risk should be better ratio right now.

The flipside is if the repercussions for markets are >12 months then we are possibly in a worse place if we need to finance the build in that period. I am hoping the cash we have at present will give us a solid 12-24 month window if we need it, to get finance complete.

one positive for those concerned about the current sp - as soon as we see a whiff of 'we're ok, financing is still going to get done' or 'cash is fine, this can take as long as it takes' we will have buyers IMO and lack of liquidity should see a good correction. Maybe difficult now until the worst of the virus has passed but as and when it does, and we have company news, this is not going to hang around the 1.8p level for long. Every trader (long term/ short term/ daytrader) is going to want some at this price.

pickedpeck I think sadly it is generally accepted that the market will overreact both ways (up and down) the euphoria of highs higher than they should be and probably undershoot in panic situations. Probably some people will make lots of money from it, just speaking from an investment point of view (and obviously setting aside for now the human cost) while others lose their shirt. I hope people on thisboard who contribute regularly aren't too overexposed on assets they need to sell, from previous experiences of market crashes quality stocks recover, albeit it takes much longer to go up than it did to come down.

Specifically for Horizonte, it should only be people who were going to cash on financing who might be affected short/medium term by the market problems. I think those here for the mine build to production, yes, maybe a delay, but outcome hopefully won't be any different.

Thanks Flavourshaker, yes I never time things perfectly, maybe a more experienced hand would have held off a bit to see what played with the virus. I think the market reaction has caught many investors unaware and the speed of the fall also.

All things considered I would still have bought albeit at the lower price and maybe directly into the ISAs come April. I have faith in the board - they have to have budgeted for some delay in all circumstances anyway, and hopefully with massive international stimulus, China recovering and starting to manufacture again, the delay will be short enough to weather the storm.

It must be said it is through periods like this that the management will earn their bread - this is definitely a black swan (or semi black swan) event which they obviously couldn't have foreseen in this financing phase, question now is how do they respond. The Orion cash is obviously a huge bonus - many AIM cos will be struggling for the next few months/year if they don't have cash. Presumably also the rate of spend can now be throttled if a longer timeframe is needed to complete the financing deal. News needed, I feel, on these questions.

yep a trillion $ ain't doing it, hard to say, my hope would be as an absolute backstop the previous lows of 1.7-1.8p will hold, not what anyone wants (or to hear of course). Looks like metric s***loads migrating to the ISA come April at this rate.

Really think the board want to say something about runway and how much cash we've got and how long it will last. Wider markets are tanking but some reassurance specific to the co. would go down a treat, I feel.

I liked your post Ian_ well put. I've been thinking in the last few days/weeks about EUA and the general market situation and can summarise my view that greed, impatiance, and fear are all very powerful and very natural human emotions and playing out everywhere.

With respect to EUA specifically, I am a greedy, impatient and fearful bastard who would like 60p per share, would like it now, and am worried in case it doesn't happen for some reason that the board haven't told me about yet :-). But if we can keep our emotions under check at least here there should be a success story, and within very reasonable investment timescales if one thinks a few months is a decent timeframe for such things, even while the market as a whole is having a right battering.

Have a great weekend folks. Been an 'interesting' week in the markets. Congratulations those holding their nerve here and elsewhere. For the brave (or foolish) adding on lows. Lets see what the weeks ahead bring - is this the absolute bottom or are we on for a bit more turbulence ahead. Thanks to all messages here, good banter and keeps the spirit up against a backdrop of general doom and gloom. This time next year, Horizonte will be well up and we'll all be millionaires (Rodney).

Notperfect and djryan agreed normally I don't go much by director buys and yes we are marked down with the market. The fear is market wide, but the specific fear which can be preyed upon in the case of Horizonte can be if they don't have the cash to see it through to financing.

I would see a director buy (but much better, an RNS to say 'we're cashed up thanks, this can last a while') as achieving the same purpose. IF (and I rather suspect is the case) we aren't going to get financed by mid year, what is the runway. I am sure we will hear about it, I am sure they are picking their timing.

There is always the outside chance of unexpected news (for me now unexpected news would be they still expect to complete mid year - because I don't expect it to be the case). That would of course be very significantly positive.

7.5/8.3 yeah right. Only if they don't want anyone to buy or sell any! bananas...

Reckon a director buy would go down well here now. Yes I know it would be temporary, but just as a signal, if they can do it now 'hold your nerve boys, we've got cash to weather the storm'. It could be totally token amount and would have the desired effect, I think. Come on guys, a token £2k would do. Maybe they are trying but the broker isn't executing their trade either :)

AU2016 agreed and it is unfortunate for those it hits hard, but it will be swift and brief. The markets have tanked like it is WW3. 1987? Come on. djryan and I are going to keep putting in. I've spent £2k today. Tomorrow I might have £500 somewhere. Next week I'll be down to tenners but goddamit I am going to swim against this tide :)

Worth a pause for thought what would happen to the NHS if there was a war. It is somewhat unfortunate that western capitalism is setup with 1% margin of capacity. It's a plan for the best and hope for the best attitude of course.

when people are allowed again to accept that fact (and aren't prevented from boarding aeroplanes with a cough etc)

this situation feels very engineered to me - who stands to gain from a (temporary) fall in markets? I don't know the answer, but Trump, Russia, investment banks, for every one losing, someone else is winning. Serious politics is being played here (anyone think the OPEC/Russia oil thing wasn't anything but politically motivated to coincide and spread the fear). And cynically those benefiting will be buying, directly, or indirectly.

The day flu brings down capitalism, you can't make it up :) It is quite literally on the verge of being funny. It is a pandemic - of stupidity.

>>major minor
major minEr. Apologies

Interesting - I've only just thought of it - if there is any component of equity swap in the deal, this would have a complication on the deal I would have thought at such a period of volatility as it might be difficult to pin down precise parameters. For example, if Nornickel were coming in and offering NN shares in exchange, it gets messy with rouble dollar exchange rates and general market volatility and whatnot.

Just a thought, of course, if it is cash then cash is cash and we all like and probably prefer it (though I might not be against picking up a good chunk of a major minor at depressed prices in a weak market, as long as they were offering well over the odds for our very substantial assets here).

I used to invest in investment banks. Figured I'd never have the 'knowledge' (and I use the term loosely here, with all the disclaimers and caveats and no insinuation of any wrongdoing by any party) that they had to make the trades they make, but I liked to profit indirectly from their knowledge. I did very well out of it, and more by accident than design, happened to be out of that particular market around 2008 when things got messy. But it is fair to say the big boys make money in every direction, usually, and once in a very blue moon get it badly wrong.

true, cash can be king, but there are ridiculous situations playing out which are just too good not to take advantage of. For a very simple example, I just noticed Intu are warning it might fail. Stands to reason of course - high street is already dying this is just accelerating the proceedings as obviously shopping will suffer in the months ahead. So I quickly checked the Amazon shareprice and - lo and behold, down 15% from start of year. WTF? Where are all the people going to buy all their stuff if they are too afraid of going out on the high street and to shopping centers?

Likewise I'm a former investor in Vodafone. It has it's troubles, but people aren't going to phone less now than before. Vodafone is at multi decade lows.

So for me, for anyone with >1yr time horizon, this is buying time and buying time big if cash is available.

JPMorgan will be profiting in both directions one feels. Big boys must be loving all the trading opportunities, then when it turns, the buying opportunities.

my post, of course, was just tongue in cheek but I bought elsewhere as I think bargains everywhere one looks at the moment. Hard to have enough cash around but these are the days it comes in handy.

No particular regrets with EUA and it is nicely insulated here at present but I sure would love to be investing some of that special divi if and when it lands.

My only hope is that the virus doesn't slow down the deal here to the same timescales as a wider market recovery. I can't be the only person hoping any payout here can be handsomely leveraged through further investments in an oversold market.

Indeed. I nearly panicked and sold this morning, then remembered I couldn't :)