Member Info for wasarunner

Scoutt - timing the bottom of course is notoriously hard - what would be your entry price? What are you hoping for?

Also and specifically to Horizonte, I think they will have cash to weather some runway. I also think the majors (Teck/Glencore/JPMorgan/Orion etc.) could, and probably would, finance another short round if it was required to get to the main package agreed. They aren't going to throw away what they have already invested.

So I think Horizonte is pretty safe even in a dire market and my expectation is that the board will start telling us so - as there is less than 4 months now to mid-year.

Still small buys (for me) but building a nice starter position here. The more I research the more I like it and when and if I can free more substantial funds will try to build a decent holding. My views on wider markets are - yes, probably carnage in the next few months, but will recover. I don't think PERE needs cash, commodities are still at reasonable prices, gold is a bonus, so this is as safe a haven as any for the investment (particularly at current but price).

I think owlo has got the right question and I think the board will answer it. Fundamentally this becomes a question of how well does the cash run with a slight (in relative terms) delay to financing. Can they do 6 months, 9 months etc.

I think the board will clarify it, and probably/possibly at the same time they announce a possible delay (if one is likely) as it is an important question.

Incidentally I added this morning (not HZM, another stock). I'm a buyer at these levels. Don't have enough spare dosh to add to HZM position and overweight here anyway but if I did, I would.

themuir - I respect all view and your decision but yesterday you said:

>>Will keep adding when more becomes available.

Wonder what made you change your mind overnight? Nothing new has emerged about the virus. In the worst hit Italian cities rate of cases are decreasing. China supposedly improving. South Korea cases reducing also.

The political shenanigans (Trump banning flights) is political. Nothing to do with this.

I appreciate the price may go down and you might get a better entry, as I said, very respectful of other people who trade and not saying I am right. Joey/Geng said we might hit 4p on the way down I thought it unlikely. Here we are near 2p so WTFDIK.

LIke I said this morning I think markets are going to be messy for a few months - of course. If anyone invested here for 3-5 years or more, this is noise. A slight delay, that's all. Even this year, people will make things from steel and factories will continue (and increase) production of EV. All IMHO

I think we have to accept for the time being it is going to be messy on the markets for next few to 6 months. Hopefully a recovery H2. It woudn't surprise me at all if our financing gets delayed 6 months or so. Almost better in a way to get that out there if that is looking likely, but say there is plenty of cash to cover the period, from the Horizonte management if it is likely to happen. My understanding is the deal has to be all on the table from all parties, so it is not much use right now securing the debt and announcing something without the other pieces.

Still very positive but tin (nickel?) hats time for a while here I feel. Almost better not to watch the sp, I will keep tabs till April for the ISA move then switch off for a bit and get on with better things!

As I said the upside is the number that can be moved to ISA. At New Year I thought the shareprice might be 5p come April and I would be moving 1.2m shares. As it stands it will be closer to 2.5m shares at current price. That's a very good outcome for long term - at 2.5p, with my longer term median target being 25p, I am sheltering £600k of potential asset in £60k of allowance. Nice. Also govt didn't mess too much with CGT rules and the like so for the time being, business as usual on the investing front.

>> Nickel will be squeezed

I mean Nickel supply will be squeezed. If there is a big recession, say 3-4 years time, and the next company like Horizonte isn't able to raise finance for the next mine like Araguaia, it will be Nickel supply which will squeeze and the price should remain high. So I think commodities can thrive in recessions, especially if there is a paradigm/generational technology shift.

The thing I like longer term about nickel (and EV) is in a way it is counter cyclic - it doesn't matter if there is a recession if there is a technology and paradigm shift from fossil fuels to electric because it will happen anyway, irrespective of economic conditions. In a way, in a recession if there are less funding and development opportunities and cash is tight, an existing producer (lets hope we are existing producers by the time the next big downturn comes) are laughing - as there won't be competing supply coming on tap and Nickel will be squeezed.

So I think we are relatively insulated for economic downturn here *IF* we get the finance. I think we get the finance mainly because we are bottom quartile on cost so the financiers know we compete well with Indo/Phillipines for steel. That's why I don't see downside here.

The trade is listed on the London Stock Exchange site:

14:39:18 11-Mar-2020 2.42 GBX 266,694 6,462.00 Off-book

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/exchange-insight/trade-data.html?page=0&pageOffBook=0&fourWayKey=GB00B11DNM70IEGBXASX1&formName=frmRow&upToRow=-1

I think sometimes the trade listings breaks on this site.

I'm waiting till it clears. My first target is 3p (for sell).

I don't normally care about any of this but I've got a trade to complete which is unusal for me :)

I don't think they have liquidity so we might be due a next jump up. Maybe 2.7p+ at close. Nickel has eased a bit since this morning so probably depends what US does for rest of today.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/jpmorgan-stock-drop-too-severe-and-recession-risk-overblown.html?__source=twitter%7Cmain

"Financial markets should be able to recover from the recent sell-off with the help of the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government, according to JPMorgan Chase. "

OK, I was wrong on one detail, I thought Trump gives the nod. I clearly have the source of power completely wrong. JP Morgan just gave the nod to Trump. It appears they wear the trousers in the family :)

is a joke IMO. If you haven't got sellers at this level, just crack on and move the price up please then you might get some. As it stands you just aren't going to get any liquidity.

Thanks Moneymaker, much appreciated.

also, apologies for the relative ignorance here, if the buyer was NN could they process with their existing plant material trucked over from MT straight away? Is it economic for them to do that? So there is an incentive to get deal done quick?

Is there likely to be any impact of the timing of any deal on the opportunity to mine this season (MT)? I don't know what the setup timeframe is, would a buyer need to spend the season building plant and mine, or could they realistically start producing in 2020? I'm just wondering if that is going to help speed the negotiations along. Any info on the above very appreciated. I had thought this might be the catalyst to getting the deal done, but maybe if it can't be mined in 2020 and the target was MT they could take their time. Of course if it is whole company sale and the buyer wants to ramp up WK then time is of the essence.

I'll buy more if it gets to 1.75p. Literally no idea what with, but I will raid every friend/relative/piggy bank in sight to raise cash. Bargain at twice the price! Maybe sell the house, partner, caravan. Leave no stone unturned if that happens

>>see if my online Tesco delivery has the toilet rolls I ordered
You don't need them any more Luke. Markets reversed upwards this morning...