Member Info for wasarunner

Just a small buy this morning, been meaning to research this company for ages which I struggle to do when not invested. Looking forward to following the news and learning!

I had no idea if Palladium is hard enough to make a big cannon (pun unintended). It must be feasible as it is harder than iron:

Lead: 1.5
Tin: 1.5
Zinc: 2.5
Gold: 2.5-3
Silver: 2.5-3
Aluminum: 2.5-3
Copper: 3
Brass: 3
Bronze: 3
Nickel: 4
Platinum: 4-4.5
Steel: 4-4.5
Iron: 4.5
Palladium: 4.75
Rhodium: 6
Titanium: 6
Hardened steel: 7-8
Tungsten: 7.5
Tungsten carbide: 8.5-9

In any case shipmates can take comfort from the fact that if the palladium cannon isn't firing we also have Rhodium, which is on a par with Titanium for hardness.

Lack of liquidity or shares on offer is going to be interesting here when news lands in my opinion. The other day with £20k-£40k (not in one transaction) I moved the buy price up by 0.3p. Once we start getting some of the game changing news through, if there is a scramble to get in, it will be interesting to see the Ask move - I think it will fly once there is demand. On any day where a decent % of the shares of this company get traded we are going to move very significantly. Meantime volume seems low today but price looks stable and probably more on the buy side. Nickel slightly ahead again.

I didn't of course mean unlimited, but 'large' to 'huge' I guess...

possibly but almost certainly not as desperate as anybody unfortunate enough being short in the last unconsolidated palladium play! Just got to hold nerve if long, if short well who knows what one would do, I don't know myself as I've never been short. Unlimited upside potential here IMHO

maybe news is 'imminent' - it's a favourite joke on the HZM board where the BOD definition of imminent grates somewhat with out PI definition of 'imminent' :-) Like - months vs hours!

I've decided (arbitrarily) that I'm very happy waiting a week for each multiple of the suspension SP we receive in compo when this sells.

That means I'm currently very happy with 21.6p. Next week I'll be happy with 28.8p and so forth. The board better get a shift on if this isn't going to cost them :-) Working the maths an early April deal is likely to net us 57.6p. I think coincidentally (or not) this in the mid range of the ACF report :-)

All just a bit of fun to lighten the mood but lets hope multiples (many hopefully) of 7.2p are on their way...

Another consideration with Orion is - they want their money. Horizonte start paying them from the day they start shipping ore.

So in a weak financing market, Orion aren't just going to sit back now and give the board another 1-2 years to scrat around and find finance. They will know the sooner we are building the mine the sooner they are getting paid and getting paid is what they're in for. They will make an offer to the board for some of the remaining financing to get this over the line (albeit on their terms), and start getting money rolling in.

I think with Orion at the table in a serious way, and as long as the banks are close to signing off (and this would be really good to get an update on - surely we can get something on this in March update), we are nailed on for getting finance done this year.

I have to say I don't fully understand how Private Equity works, but what's clear is it looks for long (and short) term returns and there must be a lot of it cycling out of fossil fuels. An awful lot of capital in the world has previously been invested there and will be looking for a new home.

I don't know how one gets to invest in Orion (maybe your name has to end in 'vich' or you have to be a country or something, but it is pretty clear that clients want direct and indirect exposure to the next major markets and this includes Nickel, EV, and electrification of the world generally.

If that is where the majority of our funding will come from, so be it, hopefully the board can play a good hand and us 'early' equity investors will share at least some of the spoils. If it is Private Equity that makes this reality, and it doesn't wipe us out, I'm all for it in principle. Plenty for us and people who's name ends in 'vich'.

I'm generally positive, I think it is a deal, and I still think March we will hear something. Mining season imminent and all that. Maybe they are going for market wow factor 'the big reveal' with the deal who knows. Maybe they thought it would take 2 weeks to announce, then they are still ironing out details or waiting for the permit and it has slipped a bit.

I'm very positive, I think we're onto a winner, I'm just not sure why they can't be a tad more transparent, is all.

I've been wondering if an announcement is coming soon(ish) by which I mean March, and they feel no need to announce that they are working on a deal when they are close to announcing the terms of the deal itself.

That's my (positive!) line of thinking anyway.

lebear agree completely on the need to be relaxed about the timescale, what puzzles me a little is why the company can't come out and say a deal is being worked on? I am not sure if they are prevented from so doing by regulatory framework (for example, if they say a deal is being worked on, they have to say who the buyer(s) are and what they are offering etc.).

I think from a market perspective everything would be a lot calmer around EUA if the news was out that specifically a deal was being considered (rather than the slightly cryptic message that they are clarifying their relationship with Citic).

Just my 2 pence but I haven't seen this situation before so I don't know the pros and cons of why they can't state basically that they are considering a deal.

sorry exception is if EUA relists and I make a win there. Then I'll be adding here if we're anything south of 4p. Hopefully 6 figures in £.

Hi Flavourshaker - no is the simple answer :-). I've been told in no uncertain terms by Mrs Wasarunner that it ain't happening.

I would reconsider in April 21- it takes roughly a year for us to generate another worthwhile investment pot but I am sincerely hoping this is not so investable by then (in a good way)!

basically the combination of man made disasters (City Financial etc.) and natural disaster (coronavirus) has gifted us this opportunity to buy these at very low valuations to eventual value, I don't really mind profiting from man made disasters, have slightly more problem with natural disasters but not hurting anyone by picking up shares at 3p and if I don't do it, someone else will (you know who you are DJRyan etc...)

>> £100m would value us at 14% of production valuation

ex cash of course

Really, I concur with DJRyan we should be at 7p now. It is a combination of weak market, sellers, coronavirus etc and of course the market not seeing fair value keeping us here.

£30m in cash an mcap of £100m leaves £70m equity. Araguaia phase 1 is worth in production £500m. An mcap of £100m would value us at 14% of production valuation. This is still a 1 in 7 get the finance and get it built - arguably too low.

mcap of £40m even excluding cash is a 1 in 12.5 chance we get this financed and built

hang on - we also have another mine

we also know it is going to get financed (pretty much nailed on) because Orion have $6bn and aren't afraid to use it. They've already identified us as a very suitable investment for their portfolio.

So we're marked way too low - at this stage, with the company stated aim of completing financing in Q3, I think we should be sitting close to 7p because that's what it's worth and is still plenty of pricing in that valuation for failure. All IMHO.

I give you......the WORLD!

Just joking but nice to see a bit of positivity returning to the market. I looked more into the coronavirus and it looks like it kills the same people the flu kills - mainly the elderly and those with serious pre-existing medical conditions so it looks like the same thing as flu to me. It is overdone and when it is over normality will return. Very sad of course for those who contract it with serious end effect and not wanting to trivialise but ailments are all around us the world moves on.

Will be interesting to see the annual report here before end of March. Hopefully some snippets of news before then. I've spent the last couple of days figuring out how to ringfence my 20m shares so I don't need any cash from it for a few years. Digging in for the battles ahead, as it were...

I use this one:
https://uk.investing.com/commodities/real-time-futures

nice day move.