Member Info for wasarunner

Yes and worth remembering the directors / principal shareholders get 1 shot at selling a company they have invested 20 years of effort into. They are absolutely going to go for best deal, take as long as it may. In this respect the patient investors goal is absolutely aligned with the board - take your time boys but get absolute top $ (or £).

I think some investors are inpatient at the moment because they see lots of bargains elsewhere - this is fairly natural if you move your portfolio around as and when opportunities present - a lot of other companies are absolute basement valuations at the moment. I think at times like this though it is important to remember the fundamental opportunity of return here and to block out the market noise. As an investor since November, a 6 month or 12 month return on my money is far more than expected and if other opportunities go begging in the meantime one can't be too impatient - the return here will surely justify the wait.

For people who have been invested much longer (or forever, in PI terms!) it is easier to be patient now because you had the conviction to hold this for years, then a month or three here or there till the big payday doesn't matter.

There are two types of investor, I've formerly been the more hasty kind, latterly my horizons are years rather than months or weeks. I bought these as a punt on the short term but with a view to hold long term, and a short (6 month) outcome is an absolute bonus if it happens.

Just 2 pence and my strategy not saying it works for everyone. Investing very short term then complaining when it goes against you is - well - it happens so you have to live with it!

usually when I buy shares the sp drops in the short term, this is fairly typical in my trading history! These are for the long term and I will be looking to add when funds become available. Always looking at the fundamentals and long term potential, short term a low entry point is of course nice, but not the be all and end all. Still only a very small stake here for me (lack of funds rather than lack of conviction) if the opportunity (funds) presents I will add as and when.

I don't really see anything in the recent price weakness particularly related to the company itself, it seems pretty well correlated with the wider market falls presenting the same buy opportunity here as elsewhere.

He was questioned about it in one of his interviews, the question 'why do you think you can build it under $1bn when other HPAL plants cost this' or similar. He said many of the HPAL plants have been built in areas where there was substantially more capex involved in infrastructure (power/road/ports etc) and Vermelho is well supplied in these areas. I can't remember if he mentioned Sumitomo but I believe it is the benchmark for HPAL projects.

I think also from background research a lot of HPAL plants were built with older tech. I believe the tech has moved on. So the current estimate for Vermelho may be achievable but it might be only by an 'expert' partner, like Sumitomo.

I think C1 cost is opex so excludes capex. The point here is nobody will finance mine builds (or bother with capex) for $1k/t profit. So if prices stay at current levels $10-$12k/t C1 cost projects simply can't get financed as the IRR at base case will be too low. And current producers scraping $1k/t - $3k/t profit on their mines have presumably spent significant capex getting these mines built and these returns will barely repay the capex.

I'm pretty confident we can get the financing done even at $12k/t as the C1 for Araguaia y1-10 is $6.7k/t. That is a very comfortable safety margin and plenty of upside for finance from better nickel prices.

>>In a way the longer the low supply persists now
low price persists now.

Struggling to make sense this morning!

>>on page 24
sorry page 27.

I checked the latest investor presentation (24th Oct last year) and on page 24 you can see the C1 cost for existing producers. Roughly 1/3 of global nickel supply is produced above $12k/t and 1/3 of nickel supply is produced between $10k-$12k/t.

Two thirds of the global nickel supply are scraping a profit or losing money at current prices. That tells me the current price is too low (even ignoring demand side increases). And will correct - current price is not an incentive to develop new supply, and as existing supply tails off (mines deplete) we are heading for a shortage.

In a way the longer the low supply persists now, the bigger the pinch. Given that Horizonte will only benefit from the pinch in 2-3 years, I say lets have a big pinch which sends nickel over $20k/t once we're producing.

https://horizonteminerals.com/news/en_20191024-investor-presentation.pdf

doubled up (or down?) here. 48 hours of research convinces me it's and 'add' certainly at current prices!

I added £50k just now. Bargain at 7.2p... :-)

hopefully will be hard to get any in under 50p to buy at that point anyway!

wonder what the first trade will be when it unsuspends! Probably straight to auction, likely to be carnage (news dependant carnage but probably carnage nonetheless?) HOpefully in a good way.

thanks mw1969 just checked with my provider and you are right, I wasn't aware. Bugger. HOliday home at 57 it is then :-(

they know we will be competing with Indo/China and they have to be happy that the numbers stack up against base case. I think they do very well, for Araguaia. We didn't see a Ferro NPV for Vermelho but the battery route again the cost/price stacks up very well. I imagine on the ferro side it would also be bottom quartile - possibly even better economics than Araguaia (less capex for same production for sure)

I believe at least one reason Orion were happy to invest post DD is that we are bottom quartile, hence the actual price used in the estimates is less material than it might be for companies which are not so. They may well have assumed base $12k/t or £14k/t and been happy with their return at those numbers. I believe no 1. rule of investing in miners is to look for bottom quartile. When I looked at the distribution of cost/capacity forget the resource, I think we were closer to bottom 1/8 cost of total global producers (that might have included future projects can't remember). I think that's why financing will happen here, even in a weak (current) market. All IMHO.

don't get me wrong, I understand why they raise the retirement age for the state pension - it's the state's money. What I don't get is the money I saved (and because I'm self employed, it wasn't even my employer who paid it, it was me who set it aside) can't be accessed at a reasonable age. Reasonable in this context for me is around 50 - when I can still go and see the world etc.etc.etc.!

it's the big problem with any pensions. Governments can change the rules at any point. I've stopped contributing to pension or trying to make it for that reason - still manage my SIPP but all funds now go elsewhere.....

Why does a government have a right to keep you from your own money until you pretty much guaranteed to die? I'll have worked at least 35 years by 55 - it's enough :-)

looks like it from the latest trades but that's a big spread!

yep best performing stock in my portfolio in Feb!

Thank you ChazC. Without much research yet but the gold/copper combination is intriguing Gold has near term legs one feels and copper of course in the upcoming electrification of the world. I am pretty heavily invested in Nickel now looking to diversify a bit!