Member Info for wasarunner

Apologies if this has already been discussed - I've read the whole RNS now and pretty happy. I don't think new board appointments would be happening if the company was about do de-list. I just had one interesting observation:

"if a Nomad is not appointed by 7am on 30 April 2020, admission of the Company's shares to trading on AIM will remain suspended"

Am I right in thinking now that Citic relationship has been clarified, and based on the above sentence, if a Nomad is appointed it is very likely the shares will re-list? As there is no reason to remain suspended then? Grateful for any views on this. Thank you.

Mine was the earlier one (my third bed & isa):
08-Apr-20 13:31:10 1.9037 1,042,745 Sell* 1.90 2.00 19.85k O
08-Apr-20 13:30:38 1.90 1,052,684 Sell* 1.90 2.00 20.00k

Yes I noticed the bed&isa seems to execute around the Bid. I don't know how these work I'd never done one until this year. Pretty happy to get 3m+ into the ISAs - at the moment it is the main positive I am trying to take from the fact that the SP has dropped from 5p post Orion to 2p today! Onwards and upwards. Be happy with 5p SP this time next year. More is a bonus.

Thanks AIMtodeath - for the avoidance of doubt I'm bullish on the co and prospects, but accept that timing may slip. For the less patient investors that might be an issue and we might see stagnation in SP for that reason. It is going to take something positive, either on the macro/nickel or company front to get the SP moving again and if we need an SP which is at a decent level to get finance then that will take time to achieve I feel, from the current level. Good that we are financially sound and I'm happy to wait 6 months, 1 year, 2 years till finance complete as necessary. Like others have said the majors on the register won't let it go down and will also probably not let it go cheap so whichever way it goes, we win. Certainly for everyone who is buying at todays prices.

Also I accept and understand that the board have been very prudent with cash in the past. That is a good thing. I am invested in other AIM cos where that appears not quite to be the case :) GLA

Essentially my point is I see cost ramping up to pre-build, though AIMtodeath very valid points on the money spent on exploration and PFS which we won't have this year. Maybe the two cancel out to produce a steady burn rate.

Sirs I stand duly correct but (and it is a but) my working assumption was that some of the pre-engineering actually involves procuring things (power lines, roads, maybe other things) which cost money. We can't know the cost of those things, and indeed it is what I believed the bulk of the $25m might go into those things, because we haven't really had an operational update on what has been achieved on the ground and what remains to be achieved. I also saw a gradual ramping up of the team to production so it is optimistic to assume a fixed salary cost - you can't start building a mine (unless you use entirely subcontractors?) on day 1 if you don't have a team ready on day - x weeks/months?

I'm very happy if we've got money to last 2 years but there must be some cost to getting the mine (or prospect) to pre-build. I don't have figures on that cost - so I assume it will consume some or all of the Orion money.

I need the share price to be 4.811p (or above). Anybody like to call it?

Cacher - I agree it isn't easy but I think the 'insurance' here is the partner/investor register - Teck,Glencore and Orion being the prominent ones. They aren't going to see their investments go down the toilet for a few months extra financing. In the worst case I expect a small whip-round, maybe slice off another small piece of the pie for Orion off the top so to speak, to get the financing done.

I still prefer finance to be done in 2020 if at all possible but I think if they needed an extra 6 months, they could raise funds to do so if absolutely necessary. That would be a date slip of around a year from mid year this year, I think that would be easily financable in a round if necessary.

As I said though, hopeful we are on track. I think likelihood of slip from mid year will need to be communicated pretty soon. I'm looking forward to some JM interviews where we see his reading of the situation. Perhaps when the worst of the first wave of this crisis has passed.

Yes it is a tricky one - I like the fact there is pressure to get the deal done, because it brings forward the re-rate. However pressure if the financing environment is dire is counterproductive because we could end up with a duff deal. When the rerate comes I don't want it to be to 4p or 5p. Much higher please.

It isn't an easy situation. One hopes they were well advanced with the discussions to Feb 20, then maybe a few months lull while the landscape settles and they can seal some deals in Q3 maybe into Q4. My thinking is they will still want financing complete in 2020 to be on the safe side with cash. Still hoping to be pleasantly surprised by an early RNS indicating financing is done but my concern is more around the banks (than the equity) - are they about to part with a significant wedge of cash in the face of a potential global recession.

Nthoftheriver I think that ignores the cash they had prior to Orion (by my recollection around £8-10m but that was earlier in 2019 so lets assume most of that got used to get to December). My guesstimate is 9mths-1yr cash remains.

It is an interesting scenario. Pressure on to get financed within a year from now I would say, which I don't mind - it will be good for mgt team to be 100% focussed on this. I can see financing environment improving a lot in a few months time when the first wave of crisis has passed.

Hell I'll even happily take a good CGT bill on the 6m shares which will be stuck outside the ISA if a buyer wants to mop us up in the next 12 months. Happy to contribute my bit to the NHS and all that.

I got 2,091,594 shares transferred across to 2 ISAs today. The sell side of my second transaction isn't showing on the trade list on LSE it was a fraction over a million shares. Very happy with that though last week looked like I would manage more with the price being lower. One more ISA to fill, looks like tomorrow now. GLA hold the faith, think we are good here in the longer term.

I see 1m share trade and 500k share trade logged as a bit before 2pm.
Got my second bed & isa trades through on the 15 min delayed I would expect it to show before 2.30pm.

Could those 1m and 500k trades have caused the rise? Doesn't look like huge trades to move the price by this amount?

there's a glitch with the messages.

I have (sadly) taken a 50% income/day reduction on my dayjob starting in April so in a similar boat to Gati. However and also sadly my dayrate is much lower than his! Well lets see what a £180k salary can make for a £2.5m mcap company. Lets see some growth ahead.

dv indeed - my focus now turns to 'at what price will I be doing the bed & isa on 6/4/21'. That's a Tuesday. I am hoping to move substantially less shares than I did today and in the days ahead. Don't know if we will have the mine financed and be building by then but if so, would expect 5-10p range maybe realistic?

I have shedloads still to ISA so will be here doing it for years unless it gets sold.

As owning circa 30% of co though he is kind of paying himself his own salary from his own proceeds.

I didn't realise his investment was in £ 4m (in sterling, I had maybe assumed canadian $). So more than the current mcap, is that correct?

thanks levi - for me this was always a riskier trade so relatively small portion of portfolio and happy to let it run. Still believe in the opportunity just need to see if the mgt is the right one to make it happen (gold and copper fundamentals long term etc)

It was me (or at least - I did a £20k bed & isa around that time so assume so!)
Two more to do in the days ahead. Very pleased with the spread those guys can get on the trade (I'm with ii).
Also most pleased with the total quantity of shares being ISA'd. Of course, I'd rather not have bought higher, but the compo here is the sheer quantity which will be in the right pot for recovery and then growth!

I added today to bring my shares held to round 250k. Average around 6p (apologies I know this will be lower than some, but I came to the party late). Only money I can afford to lose so it sits here for the longer term, interested now to see production figures and revised business plan going forward.

I thought (all things considered) Nickel held up pretty well. Now that philippines and indonesia are affected by the virus and with China restarting we may see a reversal in the curve there. I'm no expert to call it but very much hoping the $11k range was the bottom.

Luke, last data I saw Glencore were 4th on list of world producers (of nickel). AFAIK they don't produce their nickel in Brazil, but might suit their porfolio for geo diversification. I always thought once we were up and running (Araguaia, ferronickel) we would suit Glencore's portfolio at that stage and they might swoop. I also thought maybe Vermelho would end up a Glencore asset on the ferro side.

I'm guessing though at the moment it is too soon for any serious M&A. Maybe in a few months it might be a possibility when at least the first wave of the crisis might be past.