Member Info for wasarunner

maybe they are filling ptitbru market order :-)

I noticed that I asked my mate to do a dummy sell and the bid has come right up. Spread narrowed. Next leg up soon then?

Yes I was ignoring there the likely effect of inflation and really only comparing the current position with January. Assuming they can start the mine build (i.e. people can physically start moving gear) I think we are very good here.

International supply chain for the mine parts is my only concern at the moment. But I guess there is a lot of work to do on the ground before big parts have to land. Maybe that bit can start end of year.

Interesting how quickly we've moved.

If (and I say if because I don't know), from the RNS wording "There is a possibility that the effects of Covid-19 might result in a delay to the project finance process" we conclude that financing in the original timeframes remains a possibility, or that at worst the delay will be reasonably brief, say, 3-6 months then of course we are hugely undervalued even in the medium term.

We were at 3.5p (and that was considered cheap) for a while Jan/Feb with financing ~5 months away. Assuming we may now be ~5 months away allowing for a 2-3 month delay, a reasonable minimum price would be this, assuming market believes financing will happen this year. Of course financing could happen sooner (and along the original timeframes) in which case one would expect price to rise with time and therefore expect a premium to 3.5p the closer we get to likely finance.

Present nickel price of course may or may not be relevant (to financing) but the share price should really correlate to finance timing and not nickel price. If we hear even a hint that this is getting financed soon, and given that that could come at any day, people can forget paying 2.x p I think for the shares.

ptitbru if it helps it is how I bought most of mine! Most of the time I bought in big tranches and couldn't get a price at the number I wanted to buy. My own philosophy is a little either side doesn't matter, it's the longer game (25p+ price target) that matters! So generally if I have conviction I don't mind a bit of spread. Of course, it isn't a traders philosophy more of an investor view and very respectful of other strategies!

I think we will look back at 2p area at end of tax year as a gift I really think so. Personally really will benefit from the 3m shares in ISA as a result - at turn of year I expected 5p for the ISA switch. For those able to add in the months behind and ahead, also a gift.

Nothing about the fundamentals has changed and nickel firming to a level where financing becomes realistic. Yes plenty of economic ramifications of the virus still to come but it just did the green movement a world of good. Where is all the oil money going to go? Not many making money at $19/barrel.

Interesting wonder if the rise is driven by shortness of shares to sell? MMs short of shares so any buying will likely rise. If so 3p could be fairly rapidly achieved particularly if nickel supportive.

Nice that we are consolidating the cash + £10m area then. Attributable value to each mine around £5m. (traces of sarcasm intended!)
Onwards and upwards from here next week then hopefully!

Nickel touching $12k/t - not earth shattering yet but lest we forget Araguaia is nicely profitable at that level.

The last decent run up was to Orion news, and I think at the time Nickel was rising too. So hard to be sure why the price rose then but definitely correlated to improving Nickel pricing or maybe somebody knew about the Orion deal.

Wonder if we might get something similar now. Nickel has definitely been firming nicely - hard to call it a trend yet but it has definitely eased up off the lows. This might recover sentiment here especially if there is news in the offing which people either expect, or maybe sniff in advance.

>>Come on - where's the seller???

Maybe he's buying :-)

Well button my blouse, at this rate I'll be in profit soon on the latest tranches!

I'm not a big fan of the salary reduction theory really - yes if we had say £1m in the bank instead of £17.8m maybe, but these guys are responsible for the next steps of development in this potentially $bn company I'd rather they were compensated adequately to bust a gut to get us there. I think the salaries are small beer in the context of the project finance which we hope/expect to land in the next 6-12 months or so.

Of course we'd all like them to own more shares but I think the 28m share options or so JM has aligns his incentive very nicely with mine. His are at 4.8p (or many are) at which point I'm nicely in profit!

Bloodshot good post. FWIW I'm bullish on Horizonte, I think even medium term the prospects are good and it is a sector to be in. I'm bearish generally on markets I don't think the economic impact of the crisis (longer term) is fully priced in. FTSE 20% off high highs I don't think is enough when the government will soon be paying for a significant chunk of private companies staff with essentially borrowed money.

Company prospects then I would say are very good but delay (to finance/build start) is almost inevitable. My slight frustration is the lack of comms. Yes the annual report was pretty comprehensive but lets have some words around it and opinion on where we go from here. My hope is that the reason we haven't had more comms is they are either waiting for the immediate 'peak' of the crisis in the west to pass before starting comms again, or indeed some news is on its way which is worth waiting for (not necessarily the big news, just something worth reporting).

Either way it has been a very quiet six months or so since JM said we would be hearing about offtakes/progress on finance etc. in Q1 and Q2 this year.

That said though remain very positive here and hugely underpriced at present. Seemed to be decent buying yesterday.

Anybody get the impression this is setting up to be more of a staggered sale (of MT) or JV type arrangement? In my mind it makes sense for the board to do this because it allows further upside from the of the as yet partially or unproven reserves in the flanks. If you want to benefit in a greater way from upside from that you can potentially sell the current licence or JV while the flanks are explored and proven further in years ahead - from which EUA would benefit partially if a JV type arrangement is in place.

I don't know why but it just feels more likely to me that this is a route being considered. Why bring extra board members in if considering or near to a total sale? Of course not discounting the possibility of total sale of MT to develop the other assets either, but purely from a 'total return' perspective partial sale of MT might yield a greater return in the long run, and if DS isn't too precious about maximum return right now, it might be the way to go.

My sense is that if they think MT really has all those reserves, but they can't monetise that through a sale right now, it would make sense to monetise it over time. Why throw away all that future upside etc. by firesale now.

If I may play 4.9p please.

Not because I don't want it higher just people are muppets and will prob sell in the face of excellent longer term prospects with this company.

Is that definitely the case? It might be reasonable that for production completed at a point where Pembridge owned 33% then 33% of production is attributable up to the change? And that it is forward production which has been sacrificed to exit the debt provisions?

I've been thinking about it since the RNS yesterday. Mainly the direction of travel following relist - as I expect a nomad to be appointed and to be relisted April or May at the latest.

My feeling is without news there might be a retrace but that might be temporary. However, the really interesting thing will be (I take flanks for a given, so timing of that announcement may or may not be significant but maybe not in the same timeframes if the ministries responsible for the rubber stamp are shut) - the appointments to the board.

To anyone looking beyond the next 3 months, the new appointments to the board will be really really significant. What are their strenghts? What background do they bring? Which companies/countries have they operated in and have relationships with? Given that the RNS announced the 'imminent' announcement on new appointments to the boards, I take these people to be all but on board. I think who they are and what they bring will tell us _everything_ we need to know about where this company is going. And people can make their investment decisions on that basis - sell, hold, or buy. As I said on an earlier post if I had the funds (sadly I don't), I would probably add on any drop because for my money this company is going to motor in the months and years ahead (unless full takeout).

thanks ftsedow yes aware we wouldn't delist before end of May but the quote was from the RNS about the appointment of nomad expected by end of April.

FWIW I think we will get the NOMAD and stock re-admitted to trading during April - which is sooner than I was expecting TBH. Now having to consider a scenario I hadn't considered - EUA shares in the portfolio being tradeable!

Agree with positive viewpoints here I think in the longer term the company is in a strong position. When it relists it is going to be a very interesting time though - in a normal situation you would expect share price to rise (confirmed interest and confirmed relationship with Citic) but these are not normal times.

The following I expect to create volatility in the short term:
- cv effect - flight to cash
- bargain hunters moving their (in profit) investment here to one of the many other bargainst about and lastly
- people who were in for quick sale, if this is now months (or more) away

I'm not good at the trading game, if anything, I would be looking for a drop then add, but I don't have more funds. As it is I will probably just let it run as I do believe we will be sold in due course, but expect the virus to impede that in the short term.