Member Info for Walp

Thanks thefrogster.

That means a lot. I don't seem to have the headspace for the worry at the moment so it's good to know people feel it's a viable choice.

Thanks LLL.

I'd already thought about those investments you mentioned and I'm pretty focussed on relatively low risk at the moment. I actually have all of my my investments in tech (att, SMT, pct in the main) and just realised that this kind of heavy exposure both to the US and AI just weren't fab at the moment. I've therefore sold two thirds of my holdings this morning . I have retained a third and in all honesty feel very grateful that until Friday they had collectively greatly exceeded their value pre Nov 21.

I calculate I now have a far more reasonable balance if the three above mentioned trusts at around 11% each. I think in the current investing environment diversifying and hedging bets has to be a good move and I've taken too long to do so.

It hasn't done me harm over the last 30 years concentrating on tech, but think it's time to dampen risk in all honesty.

As you sau I will in all probability find a financial adviser to point me in the best direction.

Many thanks for your thoughtful words.

Ps. I don't wish to influence others with my intentions. It's more down to a feeling of individual vulnerability given I'm just the right side with my SIPP pension in being able to manage right now. I also seem to have had constant health issues that have kind of focussed me on more important things than investing and the stress and worry that comes from that.

Was it not for that I'd be leaving things as they are for now.

I would say that SMT is still a worthy investment, but as LLL suggests don't believe it to be a worthy buy just about now. If AI does experience a correction & given the increases in values over the last year or so down to AI, I feel it very possible for a fair amount of value to be lost.

I don't think I'm up to the same kind of drama I could shrug off when working and receiving a wage any more in all honesty.

Hi all. It's been a while.

Interesting points here re investment in tech right now.

My other tech investments have fully recuperated their post '21 losses and I've been lucky hanging onto them all to now but feel now is the time to turn down the risk.

It seems to me right now there are two threats, one relative to Trump's antics and the US economy (SMT having slightly less than 50% company stake) and the AI bubble. On the basis that something will give at some point (probably AI given Trump has proven to get skittish and retract when the markets start to falter). That being said for my health and my peace of mind I feel it is time to diversify.

I've always played almost all in with the tech sector (ATT, SMT, PCT and a later addition of Fundsmith, courtesy of a worthy suggestion from LLL to buffer against the China risk).

The latter has faltered but managed to wipe it's face against inflation for me, but I valued the security it made me feel for a time.

On the basis of this I'm selling up all but around 13% of my tech stock (that's the majority of my holdings) to invest in lower risk investments even if those only tend to return a little above inflation generally.

I've already considered those mentioned here in this thread but wondered what non tech/AI/US indexed investment trusts (especially aics) members would think a good stake for the way ahead?

I've held SMT and others for decades now, through thick and thin) but now just want to concentrate on my health and my retirement. I'm not sure I'd enjoy the roller coaster ride again we all went through post 21 and have made a reasonable sum for retirement and would like some surety of keeping that.

Thanks in advance of any thoughts.

We wish..

As if we didn't need further proof of Trump's ridiculously inappropriate volatility, he has yet again immediately undermined his previous comments with a statement that the reprieve may be happening but "may be short lived", probably because he wishes the flow to continue whilst shoring up a more local manufacturing base, or even one in another low production cost country that he feels less inclined to spank.

It would be nice if the guy thought carefully about something then announced it with a degree of track record proven commitment.

I don't see anything but volatility and see sawing in values, possibly for the next couple of years or so.

Expect change of direction and expect it often.

Having alienated his "advisors" down to the fact "no or bad idea" is a response that always invokes their dismissal, he doesn't effectively have any guidance apart from YES men & clearly bases his decision making upon daily whims.

I'd say to expect volatility down to a lack of confidence in where markets will finish, and it may be for some time.

Beaub11. Completely agreed, nevertheless less it's been a far weaker uptick today than I expected given US markets closure yesterday. I'm guessing it's still the China uncertainty that is spooking, but I guess Trump yesterday was as much cap in hand as you could expect of him and there will be eventually softening.

Hopefully the threat to the bonds market will temper him as goes future shenanigans, although I'm not holding my breathe.

Very glad I held the lot anyway.

Increasing belief that it was also an obvious play on the stock markets and essentially inside trading seems to be gathering pace.

That'll mean nothing to him of course as he is unlikely to face any serious repercussion as will always argue it was done for America.

I've been thinking about all those millions of low level investors with hopes and dreams and retirements in mind being frightened into selling those very few days ago and who could not get back in before losing a great deal of money.

I know that's the nature of the game but guess if you control all the levers on this as he does and profit by it whilst so many suffer you really are the lowest of the low. As if we didn't already know this...

Ps. Tambo210.

Thanks for that. I did actually hold everything as recognised over the weekend that there would be a big drop this morning and that setting an online order for the open was the decision turning point for me.

I didn't & there's now absolutely no way I'm selling a cent of it as approaching an overall third loss now since he came into power does not in my mind set a reasonable reflection on even a cataclysmic and reverberating end scenario.

I'm now in that interested yet resigned state I've grown to know more in the past 5 years than at by far most times in my lifetime of investing.

There is a wearying effect as you get older, especially when shocks are frequent and you start to consider your imminent future, your loved ones, children and grandchildren's legacies and the wish to enjoy the dividend of peace and serenity that at least advancing age seems to imbue.

I wish you you all the best as goes your investment strategy.

Thanks Tambo210.

There's a lot I could add on top of that positivity wise, but lovely to hear some very valid points also.

I think even if you make the assumption that the century old Tariff system worked well for the US at that stage in world trade there is no argument for it now given the benefit the US could continue to garner from the system we had before Trump came into power.

It's absolute nonsense. We all know this but the man's clear bull headedness, volatility, single mindedness, almost dictatorial attitude and pure incomprehensibility sure seem likely to see the deepest kind of insecurities to me. I think I've moved from the opinion that he has in the main ulterior as yet hidden motive(s) for all these shenanigans towards a stronger balance in my mind that he is just acting entirely as a misinformed bull headed poker player trying to frighten everyone into submission along an unshakeable vision he can see little wrong with.

Pretty sure he "just doesn't have the cards" either, and that there is an inevitable upside to come. I believe that's a very sensible stance you have and was I myself younger and had the funds to add I'm pretty sure I'd also have the balls to start drip feeding at these low points... I think you'll have plenty of opportunities to do so in the coming week or so!

It will be interesting to see the American open around 3pm.

Another positive sign of prevarication as goes the permanency of the tariffs right here.

When did supposed tariff permanency and a shift to a century old trading order turn into "they will remain for days and weeks" (and that being the most severe stance from the two US secretaries commenting)...??

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/06/trump-tariffs-administration-reacts

Me neither Beaub11.

At least looking at the behaviour of all of my Inv Trusts (and I include the likes of pct and art which are potentially more exposed than SMT right now) shows that as those run to the door, as many (if not slightly) more consider it a good point to buy in.

I'd certainly say savvy smt management (re ditching Tesla for starters) seems to be making SMT more resilient than some of my other investments today, which are perhaps more exposed to American risk.

I'd say we can at least have the comfort that despite more downturn to come, on absolute balance now is a foolhardy time to sell unless it's necessary.

The news today does generally suggest that Trump is at least slightly twitched... I'd say his advisors too, but he doesn't seem to have any as should they opine a contrasting opinion to him they are down the road...

I would think even dictators might have trusted advisors.

It is all very scarily funny..

Not sure how many also have significant holdings in Fundsmith, which has a 71% US market based, but I'm setting them to sell at a 7% overall loss point (as I've only had them for a couple of years) unless things turn in the meantime.

I suspect that won't be too long in all honesty...

100% re Starmer. He's had a poor press but tbh I'd take him as a grown up non populist leader any time than the shower we have had in this country of recent.

I think it's fair to assume that there was a mess to sort out and at least it wasn't smothered and is being handled with a refreshing openness and candour.

This isn't a forum for political ideals, however and I appreciate a great many people will have vastly contrasting views and so I'll leave my personal opinions there.

I think the world is now used to populist politics and has grown to believe promises of something for nothing.

If only...

Heads down for the open tomorrow...

I of course meant unrest in the US, not UK...

Apologies.. cut off by wordage constraints. To finish:

Trouble is he is the most powerful man on earth and also holds the most supreme power position of any leader other than Putin. Come the mid term elections it will likely get more difficult for him to enact his wishes, but that's nearly two years away). I'm leaning in my thinking of the man as of no particular intelligence, scruples or depth, and at best a stubborn & roughly versed business man who has no trouble in breaking rules and conventions in the most shocking and blunt ways imagine able... The worst type of populist and in short absolutely awful material for a country or world leader.

True LLL.

The fear factor doesn't usually get to me and the last thing I want to do is sew unease amongst holders... I do value your advice on here and always find value in your thinking. As I think I've pointed out before I was never a massively involved investor and have learned just enough over the years to remain invested at the same time as it not detrimentally effecting the quality of my life. On that basis I've never been well versed on a lot of the technical intracys, despite having (I believe) a good understanding of human nature and interest in politics. That's been enough really, but do see the current situation as a fairly unique event that I'd like to understand better if I can.

As stated before, America haven't really touched upon services in their thinking. This I'm led to believe is because of their dominance in this technological sector as goes the likes of Apple, Meta, Amazon etc al (which of course account for a sizeable chunk of the SMT portfolio). One part of my thinking is that these remain perhaps an easy target for countries retaliating. Some kind of operating taxation/tariff or fee imposed by countries looking to level the playing field might seem possible? Does that sound possible to you, LLL..? If so do you think this could create a deeper impact than you currently feel likely? Trumps contraventions as goes world trade might seem liable to invite the same from retaliatory countries in whatever form?

Of course anything is possible, and you have helped me a great deal as concerns your reply. I do have plenty of ISA investment funds to sustain me until state pension age (I'm currently receiving a modest nursing pension I can top up with that until attaining state pension age).

My sipp pot is pretty large in comparison to everything else though, and even if it were halved by these shenanigans and stay halved (which of course it won't given time) I'd still be well placed financially and so cannot complain as I am very lucky. On that basis I'm leaning towards sticking despite my gut feeling being a another sizeable drop over the following week at least .

There is a written piece in the BBC today that discusses Trumps intentions. It does actually centre on the idea that Trump might be truly reaching back for the fully tarrifed system of America a century ago, and dies seem to conclude that America will benefit to some degree by this stance, despite having historically flourished up until now with their recent system of free world trade.

It does however point out that getting near to these benefits could take an extremely long time and there will be extreme pain felt (specifically by US citizens arriving at that.

There were modest demonstrations yesterday again Trumps policies generally.. I thj K these were exaggerated by the media, but then it's early days. I cannot see at least some stage at which severe unrest comes about in the UK if he holds this course. Trouble is he is the most powerful man on earth and also ho

Excellent reply as ever LLL. Thanks. I guess I was putting out the feelers. As you know I've held SMT for a great many years undeterred but right now (or is it just age) feels riskier than ever.

My portfolio is actually massively tech heavy. I've been lazy in the past and kept it that way, but also fear right at the moment the possible re emergence of high inflation (especially as a result of DTs shenanigans).

The last high interest rate period imbued a downward wash on SMT somewhat understandably.

It strikes me very recently that a quieter life seems more attractive entering the autumn years, and I guess I'm looking for that even if it costs me in terms of relinquishing some future gains on recovery.

It does strike me that Trump has placed himself between a rock and a hard place here, and might seem likely to disappoint his populism swayed brethren should he renege on these promises to the American working public.

I guess a lot depends on whether China will come to his table and negotiate (as with the EU).. At least then he can negotiate some conditions that he can sell to the people as equally helpful as tariffs.

Noticed a picture on the bbc of him today on his way to golf in his entourage car reading what appeared to be an American tabloid.. Probably looking more for an idea of the the level of populistic opinion as goes himself, but worrying overt reading material all the same from the most powerful leader on earth.

Tbh, I'm gobsmacked by him..

Ps. Apologies re the baffling autocorrections and mistakes above.. hoping it is decipherable...

Humble pie for me time...

Having always lauded the benefits of holding here, I have recently reviewed my priorities given a combination of my advancing age, my need to feel a bit less stressed as to the constant emotionally draining ups and downs (mainly downs) of SMT over the past 3 years or so, the unpredictability of Trump re tariffs (and his true intent therein) and my wish for a feeling of greater financial security, I took an considering selling an appreciable amount of my holdings (Inc SMT) until the bottom of this current fiasco is reached... I'm concerned specifically re the magnificent 7 exposure (SMT admittedly having sold off Tesla in a period of astute insight).

I've no doubt trump is playing a game (possibly primarily) with the stock market, probably in order to create wealth for himself and others (perhaps even utilise it to increase domestic wealth) by forcing a predictable low, but how low this time?

The Chinese response, albeit predictable I'm not sure Trump expected. We know he wants dialogue which will attain benefits for the US, and will also allow him to argue a win on which he can back row on his promises to America workers to keep the tariffs up.

To be honest his thinking appears so screwed up and such a gamble I'm feeling more negative about investment than I've felt at any other time right now..

Admittedly I thought it would blow over and he would give in before now.

I was wrong, others on here were right. My priorities have changed and although a week ago I was determined to stick, I'm now considering to sell down for cash then buy back at bottoming stages in drip feed fashion.

Absolute U turn should I go that way, but realise now that my tech heavy portfolio probably requires heavy long overdue modification and feel that a predictable bottom is still a fair distance ahead (whether the Orange Menace wishes it to be or not)..

What thoughts do others have on this?

I am becoming increasingly convinced that the golden years of investment are way behind us now (not just as goes the current situation). The world is too full, politics and international relationships have become too fragmented and unpredictable, wars are so easy to ignite and division too rife. There always seems to be another disaster around the corner?

Cap in hand my U turn aside, I'm interested in other perspectives right now... With the EU and others still to play their hand (at least they are professing a wish to enter discussions), I cannot envisage the route ending on Monday or anytime soon...

The day I retired (6 months ago) I did set a national cap that I felt would be tough to go beyond. In my defence it looks very possible to me that this bottom cap will be reached or exceeded early next week, this particular crisis seeming more obviously far from the bottom that the high interest issue (which afflicted SMT and others for years).

What's next does anyone think?? Is anyone else thinking of baling or scaling down? Discussion at least oft

Exactly as I said at the beginning of this thread LLL. Glad you agree.

Exactly, LLL..

I could almost hear Trump saying it too as you wrote it (re the miraculous improvement in Fentanyl coming over the border to come). What a manipulative SOB he really is and incredible how few seem to see through his shenanigans...

It's a fantastic opportunity for his cronies and probably himself to make a great deal of money on those rushing for the door too.. We often complain about not having a crystal ball, but I guess if you're Donald Trump you've got one in your pocket.

Agreed LLL, and there are definitely times in which doing as you do are more likely to create positive returns. I often see them (such as the return of Trump) but do tend to resist meddling as per my father's guidance. Old habits, etc...

I think another factor that supports doing as you do is one of personal satisfaction having made consequential gains on your insights.

I can definitely see the interest in that.