Member Info for vike1

They just borrowed $2m two weeks ago from ARA. There is no imminent placing. That will come in time I'm sure, but there is no crunch right now.

Yes, and they would do that in the form of a loan. Could be at the same terms of their latest one, c.13%. Wouldn't do it for free. Can't do it in exchange for equity, that would invoke other clauses. That's my base case for Plan B. It's quick and easy, but depends on ARA's appetite.

Sale and transfer of assets would 100% require MoE approval. It is a complete change in operator from AEX to ARA. Ndovu is just the name of the LE that wraps around the asset.

Still would need approval, and kicks the drill down the road. Licenses expire in Q2 21. Best alternative is to arrange financing through Zubair and have their conglomerate drill/service it. Arrange longer-term arrangements after results.

I'm sure there's a Plan B. Question is whether ARA wants to protect its 29.9% investment, or opportunistically put the screws to AEX.

Nothing burger. Normal trades still flowing through. Bit cruel for any day watchers hoping for a red dot before the 15th.

Financing a drill still makes sense for Zubairs since it's their group of companies that will service most of the activities, so a good chunk of money circles back to them in the form of revenue anyway.

If successful, Zubair's 30% stake grows in value. If it fails, AEX defaults on the loan and they pick up AEX's remaining carcass anyway, which will still have some value. Point being, the risk to Zs is lower than at first glance. These are f'ing smart business guys, and I'm sure will look at options creatively.

Would like to hear more about financing options in the event of a failed FO. ARA/Zubairs would be the only option, but they could do it. As they own 30% of the company, it is firmly in their interest to see this thing drilled. A convertible loan would be out of the question due to ownership rules, but a straight loan is possible if there's appetite.

Talks to finance the future development would then re-open (perhaps more broadly) in the event of a big discovery.

Financing post-drill is what most here wanted anyway. Obvs up to Zubair if they're willing to put $10-15m capital at risk, and if SOLO has funds to pay their share.

The offering should be open to retail investors. It's basically free money for Institutionals. Lazy Lazy Lazy.

If the gov't were to apply rational logic to these proceedings, this farmout would have been signed by the original target date of November 2018. It didn't. Who knows what their agenda is. That said, will stop listing the many risks to the company. Today's half-year report should be enough to scare away most investors anyway.

Brinkmanship is indeed the right word for this situation. My back of mind concern is that TZ has also been getting into the E&P game itself these days, and they many want these licenses to collapse and take back control themselves.

Plan A wasn't working either. Agree re APT, though they will be sensitive not to ruin relations with the govt. They'll hold all the assets, but without any favour from MoE, they'll be worthless anyway.

Also, don't discount the company's ability to change it's mind in two weeks. Esp amongst a bunch of Brits having lived through Brexit for 4 years! There is no further extension until there's another extension.

This new approach may have Santos' fingerprints all over it, as someone who's dealt with difficult governments his whole career. His appointment and the new hard line strategy hardly seems coincidental. A higher stakes approach, but something had to be done, the number of extensions were beyond embarrassing.

FWIW, I agree a merger of sorts is in the cards. Clearly contingent upon signing of the Farmout and CH1 drill date announced. I also think the likely candidate is WEN. Doesn't need to be a straight 50/50 split, that's for the Boards to work through.

Under NewCo, WEN gets free exposure to a high impact pre-paid drill & development programme. AEX gets access to cash and cash flow from existing asset. Both companies are stagnating and need partners. Biggest impediment might be how long it would take MoE to sign it off.

And without this needless distraction, the BOD can go back to not developing a business strategy, not collecting monies owed, and not selling off our unwanted assets. As long as those fees keep rolling in. Over to you, Mr Chairman.

Listen in? No comrade, "the meeting will comprise only the formal votes without any business update or question and answer session. A very limited number of persons from the Company will be present to conduct the meeting such that relevant legal requirements can be satisfied."

The beatings will continue until morale improves.

I think WEN would be happy to be attached to an operator, which if they merge with AEX, would be hooked to ARA. WEN have no operational team. They're basically a bunch of accountants, a few on-ground ambassadors, and a well-paid semi-retired Chairman who lives in Gibraltar. M&P, operator of Manzi Bay, have stated they have no interest in investing in more local exploration anytime soon (have bigger fish to fry), so there is nothing going at WEN, aside from depositing their monthly royalty cheque. Not a bad position to be in I suppose, but boring as h3ll. Ntorya would give them a project to be involved in for the next few years at least, and they would have a chance to strip out their (bloated) SG&A costs.

Bearish on growth prospects elsewhere. Could be they see opps domestically, as WEN has announced (ahem, merger with AEX). Interesting though that a cash rich company such as ORCA has no appetite to grow int'lly when so many O&Gs are on life support. Sounds like a good time to pick up value.

Interesting 'non announcement' from Orca (the other gas producer in TZ) on its change in strategy. Now says it plans to drop plans to expand across Africa, and is staying local to max'ze returns from SS. Also, its CEO is stepping down.

Not unlike WEN, which are both CF positive/ BS rich companies, that seem content to operate as a utility. Not sure what the takeaway is, but both operators have turned bearish about using TZ as a springboard for growth.

https://orcaenergygroup.com/2020/09/16/orca-energy-group-inc-announces-changes-to-its-strategic-direction-and-senior-management-team/

Taking nothing for granted, but the only date that matters to me is the spud date. And that one is not affected by whether the farmout is formally signed next week or next month.