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You're a bit of a weird guy mick. AEX is not the enemy. Get over it.
Good luck with WEN. It's a nice little unit, should be valued higher. With positive cash flow, it will be eventually.
We're trading at half the price we were a year ago despite better fundamentals, with farmout approved and work underway.
I can understand why there's no buyer interest here today, yet with a solid operational plan in place and costs covered, this is an excellent entry point for anyone looking to at least 3x bag in the next 12-18 months.
The other gas producer in TZ. Has just announced another round of share buybacks of up to C$40MM. Since Feb 2018, they've now distributed C$132MM (about US$100MM) in dividends and buybacks. That's a good model for us in a few years when we're generating significant cash flows.
Thanks cp. WEN are looking for inorganic growth in-country to increase natural gas production. Ruvuma the only other game in town (Orca doesn’t need partners). Wish the two co’s would stop this embarrassing game of footsie and publicly state they’re looking at a tie-up.
Alternative option is to turn off the lights for the next few years, cut G&A to near zero, and wait for Ruvuma CF to be up and running. Not my first choice, but I'm sure it's on the table. Another is to raise money via a placing and focus on Kili South. Personally I think a tie-up with WEN is a bit nicer, and will generate a bit more confidence and excitement for both companies.
bg, yes I hope there's movement on Kiliwani. Don't see how they're going to pay for 3D seismic though. Leverage the ARA contract? Maybe. Hope they cut a good deal and include Nyuni. They'll still need cash for it, and will take time. Hope to see more on it soon.
edgar222, the previous mgmt wanted to see an early production system because AEX needs cash asap. I don't believe ARA really care about that and they'll do what they want to do. Even despite their 29% interest in us.
What our fearless CEO now owes us is detail on his key comment from Monday's RNS:
“Following the completion of the Farm-Out...Aminex can now concentrate on progressing initiatives that offer value creation for the Company."
Our BoD can put Ruvuma out of its mind. We don't do anything, pay anything, or decide anything. We're pure takers of information on that project.
With those problems outsourced, what will our BoD do from now on? What initiatives? What's the strategy? Where do we go from here?? I'd like to see the thinking.
And then discount that number to PV by time and cost of capital * 25% to get to the numbers I was quoting earlier. It’s a big exciting project, and is no wonder ARA want to complete proper DD before starting.
What the market doesn't understand (and WEN s/h wouldn't yet appreciate) is the value of Ruvuma to AEX. We sold 50% of Ruvuma essentially for $40M. That doesn't mean our remaining 25% is worth $20M. It means our 25% with a free carry is worth cash flows of $40MM p.a. for 20 years (assuming field production of 140mmscfd. The farmout enables those cash flows to occur.
Back of envelope DCF model, with a WACC of 10%, the present value of those discounted CFs is about $500MM. A high wacc is offset by no upfront costs (ongoing expenses included)
Our valuation will take a big discount on that number because of all the risks we discuss here frequently: Frontier Market, client demand, ability to pay, drill results, etc.
WEN has cash, which we need. They don't have access to a free carry development that resembles anything close to this, and should be attractive to their BoD (if not their chat board punters).
I said BPC/CERP was *a* model that could be used, not that it’s a good one. However, we need cash, they need growth. There’s a fit. If not that, we’ll need a major cash call in ‘21. To think otherwise is delusional.
IMO, WEN is not buying SCIR’s stake. They’d need $20m+ to buy it and another $30m to pay their bills. $50m price tag is way more than they can afford.
AEX tie up is cheaper and better for both cos.