Member Info for vike1

Farm down the assets to Orca. They could literally walk over the KN during their lunch break on SS island to tinker with the foam and see if it does anything. They've just completed a compression project and are doing a 3D of their side of the island next year. Oh, and they have a ton of cash in their account and are looking to expand.

I don't expect a sale until everyone has had a look at the 3D results. It's near term (ie within 6 months) and will provide an incredible amount of insight to make better informed decisions (on both sides)

Personally, I'm still hoping results show big potential for oil. We saw cuttings last time around, and is likely there somewhere.

Orca has announced its also spending $20MM this year in 3D seismic covering 200km2 on its SS acreage. Wld be nice to leverage that capability to Nyuni/KS, which is on the same island.

I think they may even have some of the materials on hand and in country if memory serves (which it often doesn't!). It got all tangled up from the dispute, and waiting for approvals, which we may still need. Probably a better question for AEX directly, but SCIR surely must know. And, the asset would be worth a lot more and easier to sell if it was re-activated.

Hopping across a few discussions here. I think AEX does have the cash for the foaming bit, since it was meant to be dirt cheap (in the 'tens of thousands' I believe). They also only need to cover about half that cost. Peoples and resources to do the work might be something different. At the very least, I'd like to see them foam and perforate to see if it restarts any (minor) flows. Wishful thinking perhaps.

A planned Q&A means there's no deal imminent. They'd be in a full closed period finalizing details and making Comms plans to sell the deal to the public, followed by an EGM. This is them dribbling to buy time with retail holders, so they can enjoy their Xmas holidays in peace.

Oh they'll sell Kiliwani, but that JV can't be sitting on its hands waiting for a potential sale to go through. These must be separate conversations. We know Ndovu presented to the MofE last month on its plans. What are they? If there's value to exploit, such as foam treatment, or 3D seismic on K-south, I'd like to know. Until they sell, SCIR are part of those discussions

I hope everyone is thinking up some good questions for next week's investor day.

While I expect no details, I'd love to know what an acceptable offer for Ruvuma would look like. Clearly they haven't received one yet, since they've been trying to sell the asset for 3+ years.

What's the plan with Kiliwani now that that tax issues has been cleared? Is a plan even being discussed?

Have any efficiencies been realized at Greenan? Is it generating any free cash flow?

Is there any value out there for 'green' acquisitions that actually make them accretive?

His 100k yesterday wasn't enough for you?

https://money.tmx.com/en/quote/EOG

There's a trading restriction on the stock currently in Canada. No reason given.

If they delivery OCF anywhere close to their forecasts, this will indeed re-rate significantly. It will simply be too much cash to be ignored and too many options to return excess capital to shareholders or re-invest. Assuming mgmt doesn't F it up of course.

I would be concerned if they acquire something new before fully digesting and developing the last deal. They have so much new organic production potential already why get distracted? Close Serenity F/o, grow production, launch a serious buyback funded with FCF to drive up returns. Pretty simple IMO. We don’t need another shiny new toy yet.

TPDC opt in for Kiliwani is 15%, which would bring their holding down to 21.25% if the same level.

Larger field, etc is a pointless discussion at this stage. Both are big and the latest risked recoverable for Ruvuma is 2TCF, which only covers a small part of the acreage, and will be reassessed with the 3D program. More relevant for WEN, M&P have shown little interest in investing further in TZ so I wouldn't hold my breath on near term MB investment.

We all have our doubts on the benefit to a tie up, my point is there is a strategic rationale. WEN is shamefully undervalued, which should be a concern for all TZ asset holders. Worse, they don't seem to have a plan to improve valuations. G&A costs are an absolute mess, and the ongoing stipend you pay McBean ($500k pa?) is criminal. Holders know this already though, so will stop there.

Without any control over organic investment in the near term, inorganic seems the only option. KR has even said they're only looking domestically. Until then, I guess you can keep spending money on more Board members, mgmt personnel, ESG papers. It's an amazing cash cow for insiders.

FWIW, I want to see WEN skyrocket and all holders become extremely wealthy. The country needs some good news stories, which rises the tide for all.

Nice find

Orca's an operator. More likely they'd be interested in M&P's stake, if they're indeed selling. They do however want to expand, and have the cash and cash flow to do it.

An AEX/WEN combo still makes strategic sense, despite BB indigestion, though no one cares about that. "Cash flow + near-term funded growth opportunity" makes both stories more interesting. Newco would still farm out assets because someone needs to do the work.

SCIR is not a factor here and will likely sell to ARA or other who can afford upfront $$ + exploration/dev costs.

He was appointed into the formal COO role later but he ran the NT2 drill

After the **** up at NT2, which he presided over, they can have him

All numbers relate only to our 25% share of the asset of course.

Zubairs picking up the tab for the first $105M of spend, which is a pretty hefty investment of capital.

Correct, it’s basically a pre-paid debit for the first $35M on any Ruvuma development. We receive 25% of all income generated regardless of monies spent. And of course will be responsible for any costs incurred beyond $35M.

With only $6.25M being spent on seismic and CH1 drill, we have a lot of runway on that farm out cash.

With lower drill costs than originally expected, I wonder if we can use some of that credit towards Kiliwani/Nyuni? Wishful thinking probably