Member Info for vike1

On twitter reported (google tranlation):

'The Government through TPDC has continued with efforts aimed at increasing the availability of natural gas where the Government, TPDC and the investor of the Ruvuma Block with approximately 1.6 Trillion Cubic Feet have completed discussions and signed the Natural Gas Supplement Agreement, Minister Makamba"

Have I missed something? I've not seen an AGM date announced, or proxy documents published. Meeting is certainly due!

Nice demand driven gas flows from Orca's Q1 report. Produced 120 mmcfd in April, an unsustainably high level for them. CEO noted higher production is in response to "the emergence of longer term high levels of gas demand", due largely to supply power sector.

Sounds like the long-awaited gas boom in TZ is finally taking off

FWIW, TZ Orca is due to report on Wed (May 17). Don't expect much insight on their 3D program related to KN coverage. Sounds like that's a potential 2024 story anyway.

It's coming. A bit more patience needed:

"We expect 2023 to be a decisive year with significant information flow regarding multiple workstreams. "

I didn't expect them to co-mingle an operational update with annual report. Sounds like things are moving.

Not much new in here. This line on Nyuni is sort of interesting after AEX tried to hand back their licence: "The Tanzanian authorities requested that we continue efforts to secure a farm-in partner over the next year, to which we have agreed."

Sounds like they want AEX's help on it

...And they've been published. As you were!

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/AEX/final-results-and-annual-report-2022/15937854

Apols, I see this question has been raised several times. If not released before opening of trading day on Tuesday, I believe we're at risk of trading being temporarily suspended, which no s/h wants.

FCA rules state listed companies must report annual accounts within 4 months of fiscal y/e. I believe the covid-era extension are no longer being granted. Anyone know whether 2023 has a special exemption, perhaps due to the May 1 holiday?

I believe AIM has longer, until end of June. Was expecting something from AEX this am.

kk

As per Orca's latest Operational update, they're providing 70% of all gas flow and 50% of all power generation in the country. Spending $50MM in capex this year. I think their licence arrangement is safe.

Mnazi Bay gas production up +9% Q/Q. Lots of activity in Tanzania.

Separately, Orca seismic activity is still underway. They reported that onshore started before year-end, offshore was phase 2, which I believe started in Q1. No indication obvs on when any data will be shared with AEX. Could be in batches or after all works are completed. TBD.

As for Kiliwani development, farm-out to Orca seems the only plausible play, unless ARA wants to back into that too. We're no longer an operator and don't have the resources (or appetite) to do anything directly, for now anyway. Orca is a steady hand, and would be a great partner.

Well, at least is shows the business model does work and can be profitable. No doubt one rationale for their new strategy is prioritizing a shift away from the foot-dragging bureaucracy of TZ. Nice to see some money still on the sidelines here, ready to hop in with a bit of newsflow. SCIR could could actually gross $3MM + $3MM + revenue share by Q4.

Better than a kick in the head!

Can't say I'm not disappointed to see another drill delay, but the stategy feels sound. A couple of takeaways from me:

- Near term lower ceiling but higher floor
- Rig availability no issue
- Kiliwani an after- thought and will get farmed out to Orca if seismic results promising
- A big plus that they're drilling CH1 (NT3?) before working over NT1
- Very curious to see NT2 potential in capable hands
- Seismic is clearly showing something previous data did not. Better/worse? Who knows
- 2023 cash flow that once seemed unthinkable will be manna from heaven
- Sp at CH1 spud date will be higher than at MAR23

Earlier revenue from Ruvuma clearly a big plus for SCIR

Q1 to Q2

It's a stretch, but looking through the ARA website (not APT), content is littered with reference to Tanzania and East Africa as their strategic markets, alongside Oman. This is a big change from even a year ago.

Under Who We Are: "The company is engaged in exploration, development, and production of hydrocarbons. Currently the majority production is 85% oil and 15% gas, but with future development in Tanzania the blend will be closer to 50-50%... ARA Petroleum has an ambitious growth plan and will continue our growth story with focus on assets in Oman and East-Africa."

Maybe. I'm not convinced the name of rig or that a contract has been signed is actually material or sp sensitive. More like Marketing fluff to feed the masses. Obviously would like an update one way or another, I'm done with guessing what's happening behind the scenes.

They made a splashy announcement about producing in Q1'24 though. Orca has stated the govt is on their backside to produce more. If they want to meet their commitments and keep govt onside, things need to start very soon.

FWIW, most large explorers don't announce details such as rig selection or movement, though common among juniors. AEX is obviously a tiddler, but ARA isn't. As beneficial owners, they can dictate what gets released. Mgmt did note at the AGM tho they expect seismic results to be a sp catalyst and hope they stick to that transparency commitment.

Releases tend to come in bunches, and I'm still convinced we'll start seeing things soon. March/ April/ May, don't care as long as there's progress underway