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Although I have yet to read it, seems as though assays have been published. Might be wrong.

To Superior Intellect
I have again been pondering west wall considerations having yesterday reviewed block-caving procedures. The key word is "subsidence" and first-hand knowledge of it around Carletonville. See -

https://www.geoengineer.org/news/block-caving-a-new-mining-method-arises

The tunnelling procedure(s) at Sukari is unknown. Sinkholes, etc at underground mine sites are widespread. In a nutshell I remain uncertain if ground movement at our mine can ever be overcome. West wall ops suspension could be a permanent feature.

To the layman block-caving is a blind alley. This is how it works and one known consequence appears towards the end of -

https://www.geoengineer.org/news/block-caving-a-new-mining-method-arises

First, I know nothing about Cascabel other than the illustration in the presentation and drew attention to it a long time ago . . . with little reaction. But I do know stuff at first hand which was also illustrated. The exercise is repeated -

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145366/south-africas-largest-open-pit-mine

The belief is collapse resulted from two causes: block cave location and explosives' use combined with some careless drill tunnelling. The first visible result from above was -

https://www.google.com/maps/search/https:%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2Fmaps%2Fsearch%2Fphalaborwa%2Bmine%2F@-23.9922599,31.1265677,2821m

Zoom in on the satellite pic using all coordinates. That post from what I remember also had very little reaction. My subsequent decision has been based on what I know from Phalaborwa. The decision to reduce was made on competence in the boardroom (mostly from a distance).

There are at least two posters on the bb. who have a pretty good idea on how the Cascabel story will unfold. They can add their opinions. At this point I shall only do one step: Examine the biggest trades for the next 10 working days.

"BHP and NCM will boost their holdings to 20%+ each by the time the PFS arrives".
Or even sooner depending on boardroom harmony or lack thereof.
Pendulum swing at some point.

Post @ 11:28 is acknowledged and more than reasonable. Thanks.

No replies received from Australia so I look at the other assets. Excuse scepticism, if it seems that way, but I have been at this game for some time. First as a general overview I strongly recommend a good listen to Pierre Lassonde, founder of FrancoNevada, a multi$Bn enterprise. Indeed, it's important to spend ~25 minutes on it. Always practical not to get over-stretched. See -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XDzpXcdjlwY

The results on BigOne, when they finally arrive, should be fair but not exceptional. The days of mines/rich pickings such as O'kiep (Namaqualand) and BrokenHill (Zambia) were the cream ops. Tier 1 discoveries are now hard to come by. As Lassonde rightly says most startups will fail. In addition, because of relatively low grades, it is the open pit projects with their low AISCs that are nailing the profits.

Another careful examination has been made @ Cangai. Unless someone has a definitive explanation on why it has been treated as a hot potato you could do worse than reading its history. The best paper is -

http://www.mininghistory.asn.au/wp-content/uploads/6.-McQueenV17-compressed-1.pdf
and browse the satellite view (use all coordinates)
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Cangai+NSW+2460,+Australia/@-29.5165517,152.3995715,87305m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x6b9972c65b573fb3:0x40609b49043ae40!8m2!3d-29.5006813!4d152.4559187

The diagrams in the first article don't appear all that accurate . . . but the pointers the Gwydir Highway is still there. The Mitchell has been renamed the Mann River.

For the present IMO Zambia is some way off, and is accordingly omitted.
My holding here is modest.
Mr Paull should get a hurry on with BigOne.

Close 05/02/21 volume = 1,878,186
Monday 08:00 Those having L2 would be able to better assess it.
Even without news I believe a mid-point 17.5p is achievable by mid-morning.
Whether it holds remains to be seen.

@ 12:42 - ". . . equity raise post April imho. They are going to need a lot more cash to derisk . . .".

Tend to agree on that morsel and, come what may, I plan to be outta here by end-March.
Fortunately the losses are being balanced by a few gains elsewhere.
But this BoD are clearly floundering.
Block cave siting should have been determined months ago.
If rethinking is a result of flooding risk and other it underlines real incompetence on the basics.
And someone has pointed out that the licensing term is finite.

NB > Only a "MAYBE"
The cause of that little flutter might have been the TSX when some heavier buying took place after 11:00 ET. They were short of stock and possibly were drawing on MMs here. If it is the case it becomes important to watch Toronto buying volume from 14:30 GMT.

Current volume = 1,492,543 and rising quite quickly. Percentage gain there today could exceed ours.
No fresh Peruvian Spanish Bretana news has been found.

Note > It's again moving along strongly. On a roll until some profit taking kicks in.

@ 15.55p @ 16:10
I may have one or two incidentals to add if they become a factor. Had noted the company has a fairly strong Swedish following. So whatever goes on with the PTAL hashtag together with TAL-TSX activity should be checked when there is movement.

CD, easyp et al. Some regulars here were big in AMER. Recommend you at least you have a look at Bretana.

Remarkable. Brent now edging to $60. Better than expected.
I look forward to updates on all fronts.

Hopefully Shanta and Petrotal can reverse my paper losses. Was always guarded on SOLG.
An open pit start at Bushiangala (as mooted by Acacia) is the way to go.
Also, with Au in a trading range of $1,700 - $1,800, SHG's low AISC, and programme, the year should be OK.

Pathetic . . . and I saw it coming.
Should have exited entirely @ 34p.
Worst decision ever made to hang in.
Clueless shower in the boardroom.
And what fate is in store for 700+ employees?
NM has been in dreamland from the beginning.

May I take a rain check on the subject.
Have written to a couple of folk known to me in Oz . . . may not even get coherent replies. Have never been to Queensland whereas I know the Kalahari, Namibia, Kenya, Tanzania, etc quite well. Different continent. The CEO is probably based in Perth and might never have been anywhere near N Queensland.

We can only base decisions on facts and visuals. Not many are available. I don't even know if there is a decent track to the drill site. But it is almost certain to have rugged terrain around it. Also, I need to find out if and why adjacent mines are stalled despite having good residual deposits. Flooding could be a primary cause.

https://www.voanews.com/africa/burkina-fasos-teen-miners-brave-danger-strike-gold

The above video illustrates the situation in Burkina Faso. It's comprehensive enough to mirror west Kenya informal mining said to number 1/4-million. I have said before that Nairobi needs to get its act together to formalise a nascent industry. Much of it rests on Shanta's shoulders. Without them, together with a gold refinery and rigid controls, it's going to become a right old mess.

Not that is any assurance I'm glad to have some hydrocarbon stock in view of the PMs taking a hammering at present. Gold quite suddenly is sub$1,800. There are no guarantees out there, on top of which many of us are losing income because of lockdown.

I don't pretend to understand PMs but Au is now falling within the range of $1700-$1800 which is what I felt would happen. Others were very bullish, taking it up to $2300 and more. It might go there but not yet.