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Doubled up yesterday.
Hope SP stabilises even if it doesn't reach expectations.
It's been an uncomfortable ride of late.
And thanks to the regular posters.
Any guesses re Côte d'Ivoire?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-13/friedland-says-miners-will-have-to-be-heroes-in-electrification

Your updates on the bid are appreciated.
And I become more optimistic on outcome.
Ten years has dragged, mind you.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-13/friedland-says-miners-will-have-to-be-heroes-in-electrification

JH - Well presented points of view. I don't have any response to smother sentiment one way or the other. My 30+ years business experience has been in southern and east Africa (esp. ANC). The cries of the impoverished, if anything, got worse. The incoming ruling elite rang the changes, corruption accelerated, economies suffered and demands from the destitute grew.

Somehow those countries staggered on although the consequences are unlikely to be reversed. My knowledge of South America is poor. Castillo, if he wins in June, is going to discover many of his and Libre's ideas will not come to fruition. It'll be another bandaid with increased royalties/taxes, etc.

Peru desperately needs more of PTAL's oil. Shooting MZ in the foot is a negative step in killing off already declining national oil production. Peons have little understanding of economic wellbeing. They view everything from the radius and status of their favelas and lean-to shacks.

For myself, I keep hand in pocket, i.e. not adding to an otherwise sound investment.

I don't know if el presidente has a full 5-year term but younger investors would do well to focus on the whole area surrounding Lake Rukwa. It might not turn out as large as the Witwatersrand/Vaal Triangle complex but it's not going to be far short of it. For the present the story is coal, helium and gold with some silver and sizeable uranium plus helium.

The following link is dated but illustrates all the exploration work to be followed up. The "gold/silver" sub-heading is perhaps the most relevant to Shanta holders:

https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/29135506.pdf

www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/946590/tanzanias-new-president-comes-out-as-firmly-pro-business-and-highlights-helium-nickel-and-gold-946590.html

Sounds good to me. Mbeya used to be a sleepy old backwater on the road up to Kenya/Nairobi. That's going to change. Eric Zurrin will be ecstatic especially as Shanta is held in high regard.

Also, Nick von Schirnding (ARCM CEO) and NED of EDL/Rukwa, is likely to have his name in the spotlight this year on all his interests (JAN, too). HE1 was mentioned by Samia and because of its presence in the region I wonder if EZ has an occasional thought on the subject plus a continuing interest in uranium.

Big year for Shanta. VAT refund to be unlocked and evidence of Yuri's hand busy at the NLGM acreage?

https://reliefweb.int/report/peru/venezuela-migration-crisis-peru-second-largest-destination-venezuelan-migrants#:~:text=Attachments&text=Peru%20now%20hosts%20over%20one,of%20Venezuelan%20asylum%20seekers%20worldwide.

Tough morning. An idiot - a kindergarten teacher at that - wanting to tear up the constitution and wreck an already fragile economy. A million extra mouths to feed from Venezuela and a semi-literate population which thinks a village clown in a Peruvian fedora has a solution. Commonsense will take root at some point but there's a bumpy ride ahead.

Another Mugabe. Another ANC. Hopefully not another Bolsonaro or Chavez.

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2204922-perus-presidential-rivals-shake-investors

". . . citing mines by name, including Quellaveco, the $5.4bn copper project under construction by Anglo American in the south. . . . "

[Interesting. There are currently two Castillos to worry over. Perhaps Zambia is becoming more crucial to AA each day.]

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/12/world/americas/peru-Pedro-Castillo.html

Run-off in June.
Ultra-left v. ultra-right.
Big howdy do.

https://www.business.qld.gov.au/industries/mining-energy-water/resources/minerals-coal/authorities-permits/applying/water-authorisations/associated-licences

Not taking up any more stock until mining lease and associated water license application becomes clearer.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/12/pedro-castillo-leads-perus-presidential-race-exit-poll

Muddled at best.
Maybe Fujimori in the run-off.

After a gap I have resumed checking GTE's fortunes.
Not a single trade following today's update.
This was once a very healthy outfit on the TSX.
easyp is the only familiar name I recognise on the bb.
Would like to think confidence can be restored.

Shall be again going through the minutiae - having apparently forgotten some history - not that I have been here long. I knew one disposal well had been converted but was unaware there was a third reinjection well, i.e. now second, in operation. In view of the volume being pumped downhole to basement the sandstone must indeed have marked porosity.

Bearing in mind the background component of PTAL, namely the GTE presence, I need to spend time on recent history. Pre-Guidry's arrival there was another CEO, Dana Coffield. He exited mainly because of Peruvian "misadventure" and parting of ways with the board. GTE now concentrate on the Colombian foreland and have three blocks in Ecuador. There is no mention of Peru in their preamble.

It is significant that Guidry and Ellson as NEDs have never taken up any PTAL stock whereas they continue increasing stakes in an ailing GTE stock price. PTAL holding was substantially reduced presumably owing to a heavy inhouse debt burden. It is also noted that the share reduction was absorbed by a number of private buyers and not one as I understood it.

As matters stand it is Eleanor Barker, a Canadian, who is the only single director buying. I should also check on outstanding warrants and when they lapse. (Seem to recall there are 70+m of them.)

Have a few more points to make but will first read GTE's latest which has appeared in the last few minutes. Our greater margins and growing production is going to be not too far behind. :)

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/04/12/2208023/0/en/Gran-Tierra-Energy-Inc-Provides-Operations-and-Financial-Update.html

Sturm - Much of what was said (at Enercom) during the call is summed up on the following link. Remarkable if it can be achieved.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/040721-petrotal-focused-on-maximizing-value-at-onshore-field-in-amazon-ceo

Generally recordings only possible when pressing the record button at the start of proceedings. PTAL may, however, have enabled it on their website. Haven't checked it yet.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/4/peru-reports-new-covid-deaths-record-ahead-of-presidential-polls

Lescano may or may not succeed in becoming Peru's next president.
I haven't given it enough attention or have any definitive ideas. Whatever the outcome a coalition is the likely result and the muddle to continue until June. AlJazeera plus video highlights the difficulties. The bottom line is no jobs with general unrest a likely consequence.

Tentatively the Pinuahuans are possibly one of few communities that will remain relatively quiet. We might not see any uptick until H2.

Offhand, and indicated earlier, it seems logical that production is not going to increase until the second water disposal well is online. 90% water cut is a big number which can only be handled by a second reinjection well.

The following four groups continue to hold a fair quantity of stock. Burggraben have become particularly enthusiastic this year.
Meridian Capital International Fund . . . 154,010,361 - 18.9%
Gran Tierra Resources Limited . . . 137,093,750 - 16.8%
Kite Lake Capital Management (UK) LLP . . . 55,126,554 - 6.8%
Burggraben Holding AG . . . 39,465,933 - 4.8%
Hadron Capital . . . 29.8m - 3.6%

Peel Hunt's forecast of 40p might be an agreeable thought but the reality has to be slightly different. Whilst recognising the company's situation is possibly the best it has ever been there are several points that need to be examined.

Large parcels continue to move around. GTE's private sale early in the year could be a cause. In effect the buyer is steadily cashing in and it acts as a drag on SP. If so, it will affect price for some time to come, irrespective of rising ONP throughput.

Hints of interest in the block to the west of #107 look slightly off-key unless trend of the Vivian formation differs from accepted geological modelling. Recently the company reiterated migration to the east. Unless it has been decided traps are present the idea looks off-limits. Also, refineries in the region are idle and very limited in capacity. On the other hand, with any discovery being light oil, it would be trucked to #95 field and blended.

With a second reinjection well being drilled this month a thought has to go to a prodigious water cut. Reaction to increases can vary. Petrotal seems to embrace it. A second well is a priority if production is to be doubled. (In the Mississippian, Oklahoma, and the Bakken, N Dakota, water cuts are acceptable and routine.) See -

https://onepetro.org/SPELACP/proceedings-abstract/07LACPEC/All-07LACPEC/SPE-108050-MS/142369

https://elliott.gwu.edu/liberata-mulamula
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberata_Mulamula

Things are changing.
Samia's No. 2 has very powerful creds.
Current president and foreign minister could have huge impact.

@ 14:25
Fine words but difficult to enforce. Is she strong enough to control corrupt officials and nepotism? If so she is possibly the very first African leader to be able to crush the excesses around her.

Those of us who have experienced the behaviour first hand know it's a tough nut to crack. Even well-documented examples, such as ANC-dominated SA and its duplicitous municipalities, have been almost impossible to bring to the courts. Notwithstanding exposure most individuals get away with siphoning funds and theft, including Zuma. One or two are being brought to book but it's a very long road.

Best to wait and see.

Listened to the two speakers - MZ and CU - but had to break off when they had finished. Questions were to follow. Had a couple of my own which might have been asked by others over the next scheduled 45 mins.

The company seems comfortable with the hedging arrangement. I haven't fully got to grips because of its flexibility. Perhaps that could be due to Brent remaining @ >$62, and tighter arrangements could apply with a sharp drop. However, when AISCs are as low as $27/barrel the mood remains relaxed.

Throughput will rise next month. Another IP of 5k bopd will boost figures over and above the extra ~500 bopd coming from 4H. Barge transport will be ongoing although I was unable to grasp if they were to be done every second month. The increased storage capacity of CPF2 (90k) is going to help.