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BERENBERG CUTS OCADO PRICE TARGET TO 2,120 (2,390) PENCE - 'HOLD'

New lockdowns possible within weeks according to Chris Witty......

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9792171/Graphs-surge-cases-men-twenties-spike-coincides-Euro-2020.html

Sensible move by the grocery chains (in an effort to maintain footfall as covid cases rise) however this will aid the online grocery shopping trend...

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/jul/15/tesco-john-lewis-ask-customers-staff-face-masks-england

"Tesco, Asda, Morrisons, Marks & Spencer, Aldi, Primark and John Lewis have joined Waterstones and Sainsbury’s in asking customers and staff to continue wearing face masks in shops in England beyond 19 July despite an easing of coronavirus safety restrictions."

Plenty more to come from this stock, stay tuned... Many stocks getting hammered, ASOS down 19% today.

ASOS shares down 19% today. They delivered a grim trading statement this morning. Global supply chain issues etc etc. The read through has sent all clothing retailers down.

I agree with mrHold. Will look over your points later bitbybit but yes now is a good time to borrow funds. Ocado raised £1bill in June 2020 on very good terms when rates were extremely low. Ocado are well funded until end next year. Ocado need to keep building on the technological advantage they currently have.

One crucial point regarding Ocado is that it has a sizeable economic moat around it. This moat is currently being contested by Autostore. It is very hard for a new company to beat Ocado's online grocery robotics. The hundreds of patents regarding their technology form a defensive moat protecting Ocado from others.

ASOS today has dropped heavily, around 15%. It's a slick company but it has many, many others trying to move in on its territory, it has far less of an economic moat than Ocado.

You're cleverer than that OWLS. Those 2 multi billion pound investors will have greater insights than us. They again are following their trading strategy of buy and hold long term. It has worked superbly for them so far..

Cheers bitbybit, online grocery trend looks good for the foreseeable future. I now want to examine another strand of this trend, will post tomorrow, hope you can give your thoughts on it

Another lockdown unlikely, possibly in the autumn/winter. Most probably no lockdowns and no furlough.

Ocado at the moment is a stick to hang on to. Why?

- Delta covid rates now rising very steeply
- Boris committed to relaxing all regulations and little manoeuvre for a Uturn as he is controlled by the libertarian right of the conservative party.
- As covid cases expand exponentially this should lead again to less footfall in shops and more online grocery orders as people reduce their risks and select convenience.

Best to all

Many, many companies have signed up to Ocado's technology having examined it in great detail and placed great trust in Ocado by signing up to their systems.

You've said many, many times that there was no way a new deal would be signed whilst the court case was ongoing. Then a new deal came along a few weeks ago. Fair enough if you want to try and buy the shares cheaply but this currently is a great entry point.

Good chance of more overseas contacts to be signed by Ocado in the near future. Delta rising all over the world. Groupe Auchun the latest major grocery chain to carry out extensive due diligence on Ocado's tech and put their trust in it.

The current price will be seen as a great opportunity when looking back.... The 2 biggest shareholders see the current opportunity and have snapped up £100m of shares at these low £19 levels

The Dutch government announced a recent ending of covid restrictions then had to perform a U-turn admitting they got it wrong. I wonder if Boris will be so humble, I think instead he will blame the public if it goes wrong..

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/12/eu-nations-reimpose-covid-measures-as-cases-surge

Personally I think the rules have been relaxed too far. If hospitalisations go up or the variant further mutates then restrictions will have to come back. Giving people a taste of no restrictions will mean they will rebel against them when the restrictions come back...

Fair point Gio, Boris has taken a gamble and if hospitalisations and deaths increase lockdowns could be looked at.

We're in uncharted territory. Easing all restrictions whilst cases are rampantly rising....

Delta rising pushing Ocado shares higher today. They'll be no new lockdowns for the foreseeable future but hugely rising cases should translate into greater public caution, less footfall in shops and rising online grocery sales.

Ocado retail and Ocado zoom service are seeing a spoke in orders associated with England's football success so far. A win in the final will give a big further boost to the sales figures.

https://www.standard.co.uk/business/euros-huge-increase-beer-sales-ocado-reports-b944979.html

Another reason to cheer England on...

I said I would elaborate on your post casapinos but I can't do that regarding the Spanish grocery market. You have done a fine job there in outlining the current Spanish grocers. Carrefour had a supply relationship with Ocado retail UK as shaggers54 pointed out. Most probably further links with Carrefour were discussed but Casino groupe were keener and more willing to commit so they bought out the current French exclusive contract with Ocado

I wanted to develop your post to look at what is an ideal Ocado solutions customer. You mentioned Mercadona as the market leader in Spain. Ocado has never signed up with a grocery market leader in any country. Kroger (2nd in the US), Coles (2nd in Australia), Sobeys (3rd in Canada), Casino group (6th in France), Morrisons (4th in UK), M&S (around 8th in UK), groupe Auchun (6th in Spain)

Is there a link between Ocado's current partners? Yes I'd say. Generally the market leaders in countries have less need for Ocados solutions. Take Tesco for example. They have been selling groceries online since 1996. They have many existing dark stores and have the best supply chain, enhanced via their Booker purchase. They have acquired a lot of online grocery knowledge and can develop other less costly ways of growing online. Many market leaders are also complacent too. They are the market leaders and so are reticent about investing hundreds of millions in new technology. Ocados tech is the most attractive to those who are smaller players and want to grow to compete with the bigger players. Ocado is super attractive to those who were way behind on online grocery (Morrisons, M&S for example).

Typically Ocado signs up with grocers who are very keen to expand online, who want to catch up with others or who have fallen far behind in online grocery. A key factor in all of this is the looming spectre of Amazon. Amazon have stated and demonstrated huge ambition in online grocery. This has woken up regional grocers to realise that if they do not sharpen their online operations then a lot of their business could be snatched from them. Ocado is one of the few companies that can match Amazon's technological might in online grocery.

Ocado looks for ambitious grocers who want to go all in on Ocado's solutions for online. With a deep level of commitment Ocado have more security.

Yes, there are drawbacks to Ocado's technology as graking outlines. However any robotics company would face similar challenges. Building out too fast could present problems also. If Ocado's tech was able somehow to be instantly rolled out to grocers then you'd probably be looking at a £41 bill market valuation not the £14 bill market valuation that is currently there.

Ocado are putting in place the most efficient, accurate, profitable, least wasteful online grocery solutions across the planet. They are completely solving problems rather than delivering half measures or partly working solutions. This absolutely thorough approach will pay off for us shareholders in years to come I believe...

BERNSTEIN INITIATES OCADO WITH 'OUTPERFORM' - TARGET 2,080 PENCE