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The government underestimated covid first time around. They can't be seen to take risks this time.

Pandemic stock plays now back in fashion

Well summed up chilting. Ocado a rare bright spot on a dire FTSE today..

M&S management are not indicating they want to reinstate the dividend ASAP. They have a bigger target in mind, reaching investment grade and growing sales. If the Marks share price continues to rise shareholders will be very content with the current strategy and will participate in the sensible purchase of the remaining half of Ocado retail when that time arises..

Time will tell. Obvious for Deutsche Bank to point out this issue and that it could occur sooner than has been previously thought.

Re paying a dividend quite rightly that isn't a priority currently for Marks and Spencers. You are referring to the priorities of the old M&S. The newly revitalised M&S prioritises online growth over paying dividends. Below from Mark's latest half yearly report:

"Dividend

At the full-year results in May, the Board announced that payment of a dividend in the 2021/22 financial year would be unlikely as we focus on restoring sustainable profitability and recovering balance sheet metrics consistent with investment grade."

As Marks delays paying a dividend then their bank balance will swell meaning the rights issue may not be as big as one would think if they launched it to buy out the rest of Ocado retail. Also if they attain investment grade any extra borrowing will be easier and less costly to obtain.

The profit you refer to is a yearly one derived from Mark's share of Ocado retail. A very useful rate of return that will grow further.

Marks are in pole position to buy the other half of Ocado retail. If they do then they will have total control over one of the most valuable digital brands in the UK. If they sit back another party may buy it from under their noses. The new owners may have contrasting aims to Marks and Spencers. If Ocado group are offered a high price they will certainly consider any offer...

"The reality is M&S would not pay a valuation of £17 a share, probably half that figure would be expensive."

Noone has ever suggested Marks and Spencers are going to take over Ocado group. MKS market cap £4.7bill, Ocado market cap £13bill

The Deutsche article referred to Marks and Spencers buying out the half of Ocado retail that they do not currently own. Marks bought half of Ocado retail for £750m a few years ago. The other half that Ocado currently own would probably fetch around £1.25 to £1.5bill currently if it were sold.

Agreed chilting. My belief is that Ocado will sell their half of Ocado retail in around 1.5 to 2 years time. Marks and Spencers will most probably be in a good position to buy it out then. Others will be interested, it is about Ocado getting the right buyer at the best price.

General estimates are that Ocado group receive in fees 4-5% of the $ value of goods that pass through their overseas CFCs. With 2 X Kroger, 1x Sobeys and 1x Groupe Casino CFCs currently in operation this flow of funds to Ocado group is ramping up. 2022 sees 3 more Kroger CFCs, 1 Swedish CFC and another Canadian CFC go live. So the fees flow to Ocado will roughly double next year. As the fees received increases Ocado have less need to hang onto their half of Ocado retail.

Once Ocado sell their half of Ocado retail they then become a pure tech company in a rapidly growing market. Greatly increased chances of a takeover at that point.

Recently the cost of borrowing (treasury rates) has increased sharply which has fed through to knock Ocado shares.

Though many detractors/shorts would love to imagine it Ocado shares will not be going to £1 whatever the court case outcome.

Could have been a reaction to that. Price fell less than 2% yesterday so it wasn't a major reaction to Autostores results. Autostores share price finished flat for the day. The below issue held back Autostore shares, same issue could be being felt by Ocado. I believe the issue to largely be factored into Ocados current share price though.

"AutoStore is facing tight supply of certain parts and materials, however, and although this will not impact growth it is likely to have an effect on its earnings.

"There is generally a very tight situation when it comes to certain parts, due to the ongoing global supply chain issues affecting everyone, including for instance components and for aluminium," Chief Executive Karl Johan Lier told Reuters.

Bought in today at 181p. There's value/ opportunity in some of these dips.

Best to all holders

Looks like a standard set of results for Autostore, in line with estimates:

(Oslo, 24 November 2021): AutoStore Holdings Ltd. (AutoStore, OSE:AUTO) today
announces revenue in the third quarter 2021 of USD 84.7 million, up 95.2% from
USD 43.4 million in the corresponding quarter in 2020, and an adjusted EBITDA of
USD 42.3 million (22.6). The company had an order intake of USD 140.0 million
and reiterates the outlook of 2021 revenues of approximately USD 300 million,
growing to exceed USD 500 million in 2022.

"AutoStore delivered another strong quarter with a revenue growth of 95.2%, an
adjusted EBITDA margin of 50.0%, and an impressive order intake of USD 140.0
million, bringing our order backlog to exceed USD 340 million. AutoStore
continues to benefit from a huge, underpenetrated market with high expected
growth rates for fast cubic storage, driven by a strong macro backdrop of
pressure on warehouse costs and productivity, acceleration in e-commerce growth,
and labor shortages," says Karl Johan Lier, Chief Executive Officer of
AutoStore, and adds:

"We made significant progress in the quarter to further penetrate and grow this
USD 230 billion addressable market for automated storage and retrieval systems,
as we increased our market access in important regions, continued to gain market
shares in attractive and unpenetrated markets, and further developed our
technological leadership."

AutoStore reported revenue in the third quarter of 2021 of USD 84.7 million
(43.4), and a reported EBIT of USD -26.3 million (6.5), significantly influenced
by IPO transaction costs and Ocado litigation costs. The adjusted EBITDA* was
USD 42.3 million (22.6), corresponding to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 50.0%
(52.0%). The order intake in the third quarter was USD 140.0 million (50.5),
representing a growth of 177.1%, contributing to a backlog of USD 342.4 million
(128.8).

"On the partner side, we had the pleasure of announcing StrongPoint and Fives to
our partner network. StrongPoint will increase our market access and relevance
in grocery Micro Fulfillment Centres in the Nordics, and Fives has a strong
presence and market position in Southern Europe," Lier says.

AutoStore has a strong position to leverage on the global megatrends within e
-commerce and automation, where the rapidly growing e-commerce industry, a
changing consumer demand, and the emergence of Micro Fulfillment Centres and the
increased demand for automation, in addition to sustainable and efficient
solutions, provides a strong platform for growth acceleration.

"The growth and performance highlights the momentum for AutoStore. The record
-high order intake and order book provides the company with a significant
revenue visibility and AutoStore expects revenue of approximately USD 300
million in 2021, growing to exceed USD 500 million in 2022," Lier concludes.

AutoStore will present the third quarter 2021 financial results at Høyres Hus,
Oslo, Nor

Doubt there will be any update on the Ocado legal case but depending on Autostores trading update it could give a boost or otherwise to Ocados share price tomorrow...

Thanks Halma.

Slight bump down today. Growth/tech shares taking a knock from yesterdays hike in borrowing rates in the US.

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y?countrycode=bx

Ocado sensibly refinanced recently, locking in relatively low borrowing rates for the next few years.

Autostore shares are down 4.5% today as I type.

https://live.euronext.com/de/product/equities/BMG0670A1099-XOSL

Mando, I haven't reinvested so far. Not looking for a specific buy price. Following closely.

Management may well address the issues but looking at the charts, and lingering doubts, crystallizing a good quick profit seemed a good move. Value banked. Looking out for another opportunity.

Best of luck Pokerchips.

Thanks ryanf,

I needed to try and understand the issues at THG before I invested. Discussing them on this board helped a little. The value was there at 184p. Value may present itself to me in the future re THG.

THG is a fascinating puzzle.

Best to all.

Bought Friday for 184p, sold today at 192p.

Happy with that for 2 days invested. Much to like regarding THG, much still cloudy/ unknown.

Best of luck to holders. Will be following the unfolding story re THG with interest..

More upwards moves on Friday, continuing the trend. As I have previously mentioned on this board as Marks and Spencers bank balance increases then the probability of them buying the other half of Ocado retail draws nearer. Ocados overseas income cash stream of a rumoured 4/5% of all goods passed through CFCs is growing. Groupe Casino, Kroger, Sobeys all have Ocado CFCs up and running currently. Ocados dependency on the cash stream from Ocado retail will reduce.

Many other partnerships out there to sign. Lockdowns across Europe occuring. Groupe Auchun may well decide to enlarge their Ocado partnership before long to those countries outside Spain that they are active in.

Many low level shorts on Ocado currently. As the market moves against them this may well fuel further share price rises as they are forced to buy back stock....

Remember those times well. Multiple Amazon takeover rumours over the years. Some Walmart rumours but that was before the Kroger tie up.

It's a wide field of possibilities as to who could takeover Ocado in the future. So many companies with online grocery and automated warehousing as their current priority. Ocados tech would sharpen do many other companies operations..

Opportunity knocked. I do love value. Before you ask, I do not shop at Primark ..

Bought in today @184p. So many pluses and minuses to the current scenario but the current share price is so attractively cheap. I've always had a good understanding of the strengths of THG, it was the flip side I was grappling with.

I believe management will start to address the issues and the SP will boost off the back. Run through all the countless scenarios and it's a buy for me

Best of luck to all

Here's the reason...

Ocado surged to the top of the FTSE 100 on Friday as Deutsche Bank hinted at a possible buyout by Marks & Spencer.
In a research note on M&S, in which Deutsche lifted its price target on the buy-rated shares to 265p from 195p, it said: "Cash flow is no longer being squandered on an unsustainable dividend but saved to recover the investment grade credit rating that may be required to buy out Ocado."

M&S and Ocado became joint owners of Ocado Retail in August 2019. Marks paid Ocado £750m for a 50% share of the JV, which began trading in September 2020, when Ocado's partnership with Waitrose ran out.