Member Info for Valueplay

I have no target price Mando. I'm just trying to gather all the information I can. Challenge some of the viewpoints, bounce around the information I find. When I invest I usually do so for many years. I don't like to have short term punts.

THG is a fascinating business story, the company of course has considerable value. When all the jigsaw pieces fit together for me then I will know what to do. I may miss out on a jump in the price, equally could miss further falls.

Following all the latest developments and researching THG with interest..

We all are not perfect. If we were there would be no need to discuss our views on share boards. Share prices oscillate wildly. Key thing is to get more decisions right than wrong.

Re Ocado I have been invested since £3. Happy with my 450%+ return to date...

Those questions are just some I pointed out. There are many others raised within his articles. Sure, the share price will hit an enticing value at some point. With THGs current lack of trust/transparency the market is pricing in further issues than those currently known. Based on how management have dealt evasively with issues recently that could be correct.

Time will tell. There could be many short term plot twists before Christmas..

Others having invested big sums at higher prices is almost always the case and no guarantee for the future.

Fair point re the tax deductible loss. As you are in at sub £2 there are chances for you of profit of course. Very hard to predict the sways in THGs share price.

I just wanted to highlight some crucial issues that are within Nil Pratleys astute articles. Noone on ths board has addressed any of those points currently. The issues at THG are a lot more than the system raging against it. I'm on the fence re this share. Value may present itself to me in the future. Will pounce if it does.

Best of luck.

Trenners - "Buying good companies and holding has served Buffett well over the years so if it's good enough for Warren then it's good enough for me!

Is THG a good company though? Is it well managed? This is the heart of the issue. The market says it isn't in good shape by ascribing a 177p share price to the company. Message board posters here generally believe it is in great shape.

Nils Pratley, the Guardians business editor, has summed things up very well so far in my view. His 3 recent THG articles are below.

He raises many pertinent points. The answers to these sort of questions need to be communicated to the city to dispel their lingering doubts over the company

"Why does THG consume so much capital? And, if and when Ingenuity produces profits, what will margins be?"

"Instead, the excitement around Ingenuity was meant to come from recruitment of big companies’ brands to plug into the system. The most eye-catching client – hyped to the hills during last year’s flotation – is Nestlé, but there seems to have been no update on Tuesday on that relationship, which was a serious omission when your “land and expand” strategy involves getting a foot in the door and then winning more business from the partner. If Moulding didn’t see the Nestlé question coming, he was naive in the extreme. Bleating about short-sellers only adds to the impression."

"The critical piece of information from a valuation perspective is the terms on which Ingenuity trades with its larger beauty and nutrition divisions, but the big reveal is now promised only next year."

"Meanwhile, THG is sticking to its ambition to demerge those beauty and nutrition operations, for reasons that are hard to fathom. The idea, supposedly, is to give each mini-company its own acquisition currency but, to outside eyes, the model looks like a recipe for complexity and share dilution."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2021/oct/18/hut-group-misadventure-offers-lesson-in-control-to-wannabe-zuckerbergs

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/nils-pratley-on-finance/2021/oct/14/thg-needs-to-reassure-shareholders-and-get-a-proper-chairman

https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2021/oct/12/citys-crisis-of-confidence-in-matthew-mouldings-thg-is-real-and-getting-worse

THG has always been a hedged investment by SoftBank. They've lost so far on their 6.6% investment in THG but gained £3bill in 7 months on their 40% of Autostore investment. Autostore have gained many additional clients through THG at a crucial time as their IPO floated very successfully recently.

Overall they are winners..

My post has many pertinent points which of course you choose to avoid.

If THG also continues this avoiding the issue strategy then the doubts will mushroom and take a deeper hold. There are ways out of this. If the performance at THG is as good as you say then management should find it easy to provide information regarding this and communicate it effectively..

SYN00GOLD - "This is a company in great shape"

Is it though? Is it well managed? This is the heart of the issue. The market says it isn't in good shape by ascribing a 180p share price to the company. Message board posters here generally believe it is in great shape.

Nils Pratley, the Guardians business editor, has summed things up very well so far in my view. His 3 recent THG articles are below.

He raises many pertinent points. The answers to these sort of questions need to be communicated to the city to dispel their lingering doubts over the company

"Why does THG consume so much capital? And, if and when Ingenuity produces profits, what will margins be?"

"Instead, the excitement around Ingenuity was meant to come from recruitment of big companies’ brands to plug into the system. The most eye-catching client – hyped to the hills during last year’s flotation – is Nestlé, but there seems to have been no update on Tuesday on that relationship, which was a serious omission when your “land and expand” strategy involves getting a foot in the door and then winning more business from the partner. If Moulding didn’t see the Nestlé question coming, he was naive in the extreme. Bleating about short-sellers only adds to the impression."

"The critical piece of information from a valuation perspective is the terms on which Ingenuity trades with its larger beauty and nutrition divisions, but the big reveal is now promised only next year."

"Meanwhile, THG is sticking to its ambition to demerge those beauty and nutrition operations, for reasons that are hard to fathom. The idea, supposedly, is to give each mini-company its own acquisition currency but, to outside eyes, the model looks like a recipe for complexity and share dilution."

https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2021/oct/18/hut-group-misadventure-offers-lesson-in-control-to-wannabe-zuckerbergs

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/nils-pratley-on-finance/2021/oct/14/thg-needs-to-reassure-shareholders-and-get-a-proper-chairman

https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2021/oct/12/citys-crisis-of-confidence-in-matthew-mouldings-thg-is-real-and-getting-worse

Trojanhorse,

"Revenues significant, possibilities evidenced by large investment from a significant tech fund. None of that matters if false allegations are being thrown at it."

This false allegation may well be responsible for part of the share price dip from Nov 11. Before that point though the share price had fallen from 500p to 197p. The companies performance/ communication/ management etc do very much matter. If THG can rectify its management issues, churn out solid results etc it will give them a chance of swimming back upstream.

Totally agree with those words Pokerchips. This "flunky" as you put it at Numis should be thoroughly investigated.

Trojanhorse is blaming the system for THGs woes. Much of the issues at THG though are self inflicted. They can be repaired/healed with help from others if the company is open enough to change.

The Numis note was sent out on Nov 11 and a retraction/correction email was sent out the following day. The share price at that point was around 195p. A great amount of THGs share price fall thus far has been due to miscommunication of their strategy/vision.

To blame THGs woes on the system/shorters or this Numis note is missing the point..

The Numis issue is wrong and should be investigated.

It is easy to fall into the Matt Moulding mindset though and blame the system. Blame the shorters etc. THG can fully control its own company and management. It can sure up/strengthen its management team, look to give more facts and figures/clarity on different sectors of its business etc.

The equity market will not change in a hurry. THG has to learn how to thrive within it.

Those Indian tech companies are highly valued in large part due to their solid leadership. Matt gave an investor day presentation in October and THG shares fell 30%+ off the back of it. Matt gave another amateur interview for GQ leading to further falls.

If THG can restore trust and sure up its management then it can be compared well. Currently though it's a few cards short of the full deck others are playing with.

It's not madness Dan. If you are so sure those companies will fail then you should short the first one. Its shares are freely available. These are innovative companies in the Indian retail market, which is a very fertile and hard to break into.

Good point. Those 2 are some of the very best in the retail business. Stuart Rose was chairman of Ocado between 2013-20. Covering the period where Ocado was the most shorted stock in the FTSE. I clearly remember the huge oscillations in share price in those years. He helped lead Ocado safely through those waters.

Put yourself in Putin's shoes. The UK government have ****ged him off year after year, is he going to listen to our current pleas?

We are bottom of his list..

"The original private note from Numis was circulated on 11 November. Within 24 hours, a follow-up was sent out alluding to "misrepresentations of some of the commentary made by the team" in relation to companies including, but not restricted to, THG. The amended version removed the reference to "irregularities in accounting" - for which people close to both companies say there is no evidence - and modified its suggestion relating to the potential trajectory of THG shares. On 15 November, a further note was sent to Numis clients apologising for "some inaccuracies, which we attempted to clarify in a revised email to this same distribution group on 12 November at 12.37pm"

So Numis original note was quickly corrected by them so any who saw the original note saw the correction the next day. Shoddy/shady stuff but behind the scenes they have been correcting the issue before it had come to light now.

"This says it all
17-Nov-21 16:35:29 181.70 1,055,455 Buy* 180.90 181.80 2m"

That's the daily uncrossing trade. Ignore that....

Best of luck with that prediction Richie33. Positive development today for sure but not one that will propel the share price to the levels you are after within a few days..

A strong RNS from THG would be good but the key news has been made public today.