Member Info for Urraca

Back to where we closed last Thursday. Shame we’ve lost the froth from the election bounce. After all, it did negate Mad Dog McDonnell’s promise of a one-off punitive windfall tax on O&G companies.

Last Monday it dropped to 38 before recovering to 70. Today it’s dropped to 54. Let’s see where it recovers to by Friday. Assuming no news on Carapa, the drill did start late.

Fishing for stops. Or a monster sell.

Wow looks like big Lloyd is a sore loser who won’t accept democracy unless the great unwashed do what they’re told. And tug their forelock when he walks past. And he wonders why Labour and remainers got annihilated? Lol, the sense of entitlement and lack of self-awareness is staggering.

Elise, that simply sums the reported buys and sells. But institutions can delay publication of their trades, by up to 3 days I think, so it is not a reliable indicator of what is actually happening in real time. Price trend is the best guide, although it too can be manipulated and unreliable over short time frames. This is from a trading perspective - an investing perspective uses different metrics.

I hope so Mrd. Just erring on the side of caution.

It will push up towards 70p before close I think. Not sure it will get through 70. But a 13% rise is good. Decent Carapa result on Monday should add another 10-15%

Well, Labour’s proposed windfall tax on O&G companies has been properly seen off. Hop8ng that’s worth a few pence on the share price.

I’m starting to wonder if this wasn’t more about a boardroom putsch following lacklustre performance and downward revisions, given the slightly weird timing.

Been watching this, but not in. Nice to see one come good though.

Carapa results are due to be announced in 4th quarter 2019. If they’d had an inkling it was not good they surely would have said so on Monday.

Thanks

Please can you summarise the FT article donmac101, I can’t access it.

As there has been no suggestion that corrupt management are pillaging it. I’m not going to predict where the sp will go today, because I don’t have a clue, but Carapa 1 result will move it a bit depending on whether it’s good or bad. The big news will be if the Uganda farm out can complete next month. If it can, TLW could pay down a third of its debt, with concomitant reduction in debt servicing charge and therefore an increase in fcf.

Balance sheet net asset value at 24 July (half year report) was $2.8bn. So roughly $2 per share. Even in a fire sale, they could get $1 a share. 77p, at a knock down price. But I guess from the price action that a monumental sell is being worked in the background.

Ta Shakey

Don’t want to be Debbie downer, but does anyone have any idea what level of production is required at SD to offset losing NW Gemsa? It is currently a pretty significant element of daily production. I’m trying to get my head round SD upside, but struggling.

With the N Gemsa production about to go, it could be that the market wants to see the SD production come on line to replace that. It is a bit of a cloud on the horizon, although fully disclosed.

Still got a bigger market cap than SDX. Although that should change when SD comes online.

Cnooc about to swoop. I wish.