Member Info for uncertain

I now see that the basis for the closing price yesterday was a single after hours modest sell at 2.29.
Strange that the after hours large purchase at $2.75 on Friday didn't get recorded as the finish price then!

Early trade diffident and uncertain as people try and work out what is going on here. Sales are quite small and tentative. Purchases a little stronger and more confident.

RNS Thursday perhaps, although I suspect it will depend on the date of the court case. Does anybody knw when that is?

Well if this is a P&D, then a major hike in the oil price in the middle of it should put the cat among the pigeons!

It seems to have been enough, at any rate, to persuade the MMs and the LSE site that the halfway point between 2.3p and 2.6p is in fact 2.45p and not 2.29p as they seemed to think yesterday

this afternoon up to $64.5
It's worth 0.1p per dollar on my CASP simulation!
Good news without an RNS

Hi adrianz. I agree with your list although I would add export percentage. I agree it is a good risk reward ratio for AIM. I am less concerned about the domestic price, partly because I think it is unlikely to rise soon, but mainly because my spreadsheet simulation shows that it has relatively little effect on profitability when Brent and the export percentage are both high.

I agree that no good news is currently priced in. I think we both agree that CASP is underpriced and that it will move upwards on relatively minor good news. Sentiment and TA are probably pushing in the same direction at the moment.

Last summer, before the second wave, we were priced at about 3p. In the spring when the full impact of the pandemic was not fully realised we were largely around 4p. Returning to those levels would indicate we are starting to be priced in a post covid way. Currently we are about at the same level as the November P&D, so getting past that would be a positive indication.

Hi Tucson, we are now entering a period of two or three months when news is likely on a number of fronts and some of it is likely to be good. Not having a crystal ball I don't know where the best news is going to come from, but I am confident that cashflow is now positive and that some new drilling will be possible in the not too distant future.

On the P&D front, I think this has more of the feel of a TA response, albeit in conjunction with some minor orchestrated and rather ill-informed ramping.

CASP has fallen on a lack of news. Now news is expected there is a resurgence of interest. We still have to wait to see what the news is of course.

Unlike the after hours purchase on Friday, the buys this morning are regular but modest. It feels like quite a few people are dipping their toes in the water to see what happens. The MMs seem content to let the sp drift gently.

It should be an interesting week GLALTH

It was that guy on the video, wasn't it?

Bizarre

We have one large buy after hours at a premium price. The price is still 2.2p and not 2.75p
We have had P&D activity relatively recently
We also have news due soon on various fronts
Rampers with "secret information" are presenting CASP as an oil El Dorado
Monday will be very interesting but now I intend to take the weekend off!

He's only got 157 posts to his name.
You should always be nice to beginners!
Unless, of course this is a new incarnation of an old poster!
And he's named himself after Beethoven's only opera (the character he has named himself after is a bit dubious however)

Fidelio, you are new here. We get regular rampers and derampers and have got a little tired of that kind of thing.

It may be that you are not a ramper. It may well be that you have genuine information of a positive nature. It may even be the case that you are not disclosing the nature of that information for ethical reasons.

Whatever the case may be, and I am quite willing to give you the benfit of the doubt, it is nevertheless true that if you claim to have been right when the good news finally comes along, it could have been any one of the following:

BNG charge court case settled
Yelemes export license granted
Allowed export percentage or quota increased
Workovers increases output of existing wells
Some flow improvement from deep wells
Boat leased out or sold
Domestic price increased.
Accounts for 2020 show limited debt
MJF drill progam annouced
etc

Can you see the problem? If any of these things happen then you can say you were right. Personally I think one or more of them will happen and relatively soon. Plus continued increases in Brent

Good luck

Fidelio, I am sure that you will be right. There are so many possible sources of good news in CASP that one of them is sure to be announced in the next few weeks.

So do you think $63.08 is good or bad Fidelio, given that we have touched $65 this week?
And what evidence do you have that CASP is going to be sold Rocketeer?
Thanks Rhertig for some actual news

Fidelio, when were those times, what was your Kazakh friend right about, and what happened to the CASP sp?

And als,o is your Kazakh friend really a political prisoner called Florestan, while you are his wife, disguised as a prison guard and actually called Leonore?
O welche Lust!

Or a bublette

Well here we go again with a little mini rally with posters claiming knowledge that they can't quite disclose yet!

Could it be the real deal? Who knows!

What I am looking for, if this is not another delusion, is any news which leads to an increase in output. That is now key to progress in the sp because everything else is there or thereabouts. Or Boaty of course

Good question Badgernator. ! don't know the answer. Perhaps divermike knows the options available.

Thanks for the info Mike

It will be a bi-lateral monopoly situation - the only buyer and the only seller. The determining factor will be the cost of building artificial islands - the alternative technology.

Getting very close to $64 for Brent now. The sp won't move much with Brent IMO. We need export % and output for that.
The next RNS should be the 2020 accounts, hopefully by the end of the month. We will have to wait until April for theQ1 report on output and possibly revenue. Unless something newsworthy occurs in the meantime, I am expecting a quiet couple of months.

Good news from Ade below, but for the medium term by the looks