Member Info for uncertain

No new drills, as per the RNS, agreed, but some work on existing wells can improve output a little. The weakness of our position with the local traders is something I suggested myself a few days ago and Adrianz info from NOG seems to support that idea.
At some point we will get the Yelemes export licence and depending on the oil price will manage to return to drilling MJF. I am looking to the spring but we should get a progress report in January.

Thanks for the info adrianz. The link relates to 2019 as far as I can see. It would be interesting to know the current position.

A good summary of the situation CC. Output has been less than hoped, but should improve a little soon. My view is that this gives them sufficient revenue, particularly if they cut back on drilling expenditure. At some point they will have to drill their way out of their problems and given weather conditions I would expect that to happen in the spring.

Some interesting speculations CC. Of course if they're selling the other 50% at $50 in the near future and output rises to 2000 bopd then they could be getting $1.5m pcm

We will get a better idea of what is going on in January and until then its guesswork.

So if about half the oil is going to them and we are managing to produce about 1400 bopd, then at $6 we are paying them back at about $120k pcm. Could take quite a while.

Or perhaps it is something to do with the oil traders whose credit we are paying back in oil.

Could it be something to do with the relatively high costs of tanker vs pipeline transport? Kazakhstan is after all a very large thinly populated country. "For logistical reasons". Note also that they are "required to sell". Possibly the local refinery has been able to extract lower prices for this reason while not affecting the retail diesel price.

Just guessing in the dark really!

I think OPEC+ restrictions are equally important in getting the domestic oil price up. Demand is down domestically because of reduced economic activity and restrictions, but supply is up because the proportion that can be exported has been reduced. Or at least that's how think it works, but I am just going on CASP RNS's - someone with more of an insight into Kaz government policy may have more to say on this

is edging up towards $50 this morning. Clearing that could be psychologically important for investment in oilies.

Most of us will have made a misjudgement with CASP at one time or another! Don't beat yourself up Mr Cautious. Mind you we now know you are not quite so cautious as we thought. In the same way I am much more certain than appears from my name and I am certain you will not live to regret this purchase in the long term. I just don't know how long that might be

Apologies accepted.

The RNS said it was $6. From memory that was they said it was last time they mentioned it. Its unlikely to change much until OPEC relax export restrictions on their members. It may even have to be artificially supported at this level for all we know!

Any increase in revenue will come from Brent and the export percentage until the spring would be my guess

And indeed, buying has returned from the late morning onwards.

I keep forgetting the rule that if you type something ironic, you should use ironic script!

So are there actually any good points in this RNS?
Well... they seem to be managing to pay their quarterly bill on historic costs of BNG; they have cut back slightly on expenditure on the Board and demoted CC; that appears to be it!

Until OPEC relax their export restrictions the Kaz domestic oil market is going to be flooded and local prices will remain very low. Output from the MJF wells is well below expectation and they won't be investing to raise that until the spring at the earliest now. Still waiting on Yelemes - probably also until the Spring. They can't afford to do much with the deeps.

Glimmers of hope? Brent remains strong and COVID restrictions worldwide should start relaxing in the spring next year with the vaccination roll out. OPEC are meeting soon and there could be a little loosening of their restrictions, especially since they are losing membership recently.

But basically a slow quiet winter for CASP.

Except when it is bads when it is on Fridays

Gritster, KumKuat, I hope you are both right -none of really know. I have reservations about TA especially in the medium to long term, but if CC is right about a "channel to 24p" then I'm not goiong to argue about it!

There is a strong possibility that there will be no RNS until early January. The movement in the SP can easily be explained in terms of TA analysis combined with deramping followed by ramping and rumour-mongering. The value of this share may become clearer when we get our 3 month update on output, together with some clearer financial and technical information.

It's still considerably undervalued IMO, but time will tell.

Developing MJF and developing the deeps are not necessarilty in conflict. However MJF really needs to be prioritised because it is a quick win. If CASP follow this strategy it is the quickest route to resolving the cashflow crisis, affording the BNG payments to government if we lose the court case (which seems likely), and affording licence obligations to drill in e.g. 3AB. Dividends could also be expected by the end of next year.
Spending some money on possible deep wells still in play from previous attempts (A5,A8 etc) would still be possible providing they did not compromise the objectives above.
Realistically we should understand that In the long run it is the deeps that the majority shareholders are after, and some of our profits will be spent on cracking this problem whatever we think. Any shareholder in their right mind would want them to crack this problem too! It's just a matter of when.

Nothing wrong with contrarian investing - I do it myself - but sometimes it does involve quite a lot of patience!

A little profit taking this morning, unsurprisingly. We now wait to see what the real neews is rather than the rumours