Member Info for uncertain

August is traditionally the silly season for shares with a re-rate in September often occurring when the investment community come back from their holidays. That could happen with CASP, but only if we get more information.

Progress on 151 and the acid treatments and pipe repair in the deeps are of course fundamental here, but the information vacuum goes much deepr than that with CASP. We have been told they have switched from monthly reporting to quarterly reporting, but we have had neither a completion of the monthly reporting nor a start to the quarterly reporting.

The share placing to provide much needed cashflow was evidence of the problems they faced during the worst of the covid crisis, but we have had to resort to trying to do our own simulations of the finances on this board to get a handle on what is going on. It may well be that they withheld this information because they didn't want to upset the market ahead of the placing.

It would be be helpful if, when they finally report on 151 and the deeps, that they also finally give us Q2 information and some edited highlights of H1 financial performance (which we know is going to be bad). I think the next RNS will be delayed as long as they possibly can get away with to give them some space to find someactual good news.

I wouldn't want to be out of this during August...........

Ideally just the one to minimise the loss we will probably make on it at current domestic prices.

If we are producing 50k bbl a month and Brent has been above $40 during that month, then assuming we are still selling 60% in the export market and taking the $21 net from the AGM question, then there is a profit of $630k per month. If production goes up to 60k per month it comes in at $756k. Both these numbers could be a little higher as Brent has averaged above $40

The problem with these kinds of calculations is that we simply are not getting the information about output, export percentage and average price received any more. They said they would go from monthly to quarterly data, but we haven't got the Q2 data. We also don't know what kind of loss we are making on domestic sales which could eat into these profits.

We have to assume that they have calibrated the placing to get them through the cash flow issues and the historic tax payments that Adrian refers to, although even that may be assuming too much considering their recent performance.

What we really need is Q2 data which must surely be available now. Now the £1m placing cat is out of the bag, there should be no need to hold back on this data. We know Q2 will be bad. Get the news out of the way Clive so we can move on from this mess.

Adrianz, thanks for providing this useful information. I had assumed that the reason for the placing was that KO was not in a position to provide credit, but lacked the research you have helpfully provided. I am less certain about the court cases.

I also was fairly sure that CASP, like all oilies, would have had cash flow problems during the worst of the Covid crisis. They have resolved their short term problems with a small placing. It is my view that with Brent around $45 at present, their export sales should be more than offsetting their continued poor domestic prices.

Expanding MJF seems the best approach for now as my understanding is that they would only get the very low domestic price for the deeps until an export licence is granted. They need to work their way out of the cashflow issue, which I am confident will be occurring, before too much further expenditure on the deeps. I think they will go slowly on the deeps because they will be selling any oilfrom the deeps at a loss to begin with and need to be in a better financial position to withstand this.

No CC, I am the painter. Share capital up 0.0005%, SP down 11.45%. Possibly an over-reaction!

Sorry I was too busy decorating yesterday to answer your little puzzle. Its too late now for two reasons: Tucson provided a better answer than I could have thought of; and the discussion has moved on to the £1m placing.

The latter seems a storm in a teacup IMO, a very minor dilution compared to Boaty McDrillface. Share capital has increased by 0.0005%.

Nice little surge in the POO this morning. The AGM answers suggested that we would get 40 cents in the dollar pure profit between $40 and $50. Nearly half way now

We need a few Tiggers to balance out the Ee-aws

Hi KumKuat,

Yes there was a fair amount of info. I think A5 is a broken pipe problem rather than acid treatment, although perhaps it needs acid too. They gave the current MJF capacity at 1800-2000, but capacity and output are of course two different things. Progress on A5 would have been useful, although perhaps there isn't any.

I can see their argument for quarterly rather than monthly information, but would like therefore for them to report on the last quarter.

There is an expected net of $21 per barrel at Brent $40 and $25 per barrel at $50 for export sales .There is a discount on BNG from the Brent price but what this is is not stated. I am a little unclear which costs have been taken into account in calculating these numbers, but this is fairly useful information. Domestic prices remain low, although how low is not stated.

The dual shallow/ deep strategy is to continue. The acid is in the country and should be used in August, after which the position will be reviewed. There were no specific questions about A5. They confirmed that there was no plan to take the company private in the forseeable future. No date was given for when a Q2 update might be expected

In general no serious concerns here, but not that much information either. We really do need a Q2 RNS soonish.

Brent is moving back up towards $44 today

It seems as though they are leaving updates to the AGM and not issuing an RNS beforehand.

If this really does turn out to be the case it will be a new low in poor communications even by CASP's very low standards

Hi Rzorsedge, I got out of CEY some time ago - obviously a mistake on my part. I haven't been following them so can't offer any informed comment, but obviously the price of gold has finally responded to the crisis and that must be part of the explanation.

If, or should I say when, we get to 10p, I think it might be a very bad time to scarper Gritster, because at that stage we will probably be turning the corner and there could be considerable upside.

They're cutting it a bit fine for an RNS on Q2 before the AGM. Leaving it until the AGM for the data would be poor PR, IMO.

still moving up strongly and moving towards $45

is doing well this morning. Knocking on $44

They will want an update just before the AGM. They have recently gone over to quarterly from monthly reporting on output, average price obtained and domestic/ export split, so I would expect Q2 data on these outcomes. There could be some H1 financial data and an update from the MJF infill programme. I don't expect much on the deeps

The AGM date in the RNS is Wednesday 29th July. This coming Thursday is the last one before the AGM. RNS coming soon

Presumably Adrianz, if that figure is for the calendar year 2020 then we can produce considerably more than 3300 bopd in the second half of the year as the figures for the first half (which we will get soon) are going to be substantially below 3300 bopd.

i haven't got any Russian at all, so I can't check

I think 100,000 bbl/month works out at about 3,300 bopd